Bagging ensemble selection for regression

Bagging ensemble selection (BES) is a relatively new ensemble learning strategy. The strategy can be seen as an ensemble of the ensemble selection from libraries of models (ES) strategy. Previous experimental results on binary classification problems have shown that using random trees as base classifiers, BES-OOB (the most successful variant of BES) is competitive with (and in many cases, superior to) other ensemble learning strategies, for instance, the original ES algorithm, stacking with linear regression, random forests or boosting. Motivated by the promising results in classification, this paper examines the predictive performance of the BES-OOB strategy for regression problems. Our results show that the BES-OOB strategy outperforms Stochastic Gradient Boosting and Bagging when using regression trees as the base learners. Our results also suggest that the advantage of using a diverse model library becomes clear when the model library size is relatively large. We also present encouraging results indicating that the non negative least squares algorithm is a viable approach for pruning an ensemble of ensembles

Instabilities and the null energy condition

We show that violation of the null energy condition implies instability in a broad class of models, including classical gauge theories with scalar and fermionic matter as well as any perfect fluid. When applied to the dark energy, our results imply that $w = p / \rho$ is unlikely to be less than -1.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, revtex, presentation improved, minor change

Modelling an orientation system based on speculative computation

Progress is inherent to a living society, which may occur in several different areas (e.g. computation, healthcare) and manners. The present (or now) is the time that is associated with the events perceived directly and in the first time, making, for example, the society to be very inquisitive on assistive technologies and how they may improve the human beings quality of living. This application of scientific knowledge for practical purposes may help the user in his/her diminished capabilities, and, usually, implies a small adaptation on the part of the individual in the use of devices; indeed one of the die down potentials of people with cognitive disabilities is the one of spatial orientation. On the other hand several were the authors that have developed systems to help an human being to travel between two locations. However, once the system is set up the change in the configurations have to be done manually in order to better adjust the system to the user. In order to go round this drawback, in this work it is presented a framework of speculative computation to set up the computation of the next user step using default values. When the information is obtained the computation is revised. Thus, the system may have a faster reaction to the user stimulus or it may start warning the user before he/she takes the wrong direction.This work is part-funded by ERDF - European Regional Development Fund through the COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) and by National Funds through the FCT Fundac¸ ˜ao para a Ciˆencia e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028980 (PTDC/EEISII/ 1386/2012). The work of Jo˜ao Ramos is supported by a doctoral grant by FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) SFRH/BD/89530/- 2012

Robust Inference of Trees

This paper is concerned with the reliable inference of optimal tree-approximations to the dependency structure of an unknown distribution generating data. The traditional approach to the problem measures the dependency strength between random variables by the index called mutual information. In this paper reliability is achieved by Walley's imprecise Dirichlet model, which generalizes Bayesian learning with Dirichlet priors. Adopting the imprecise Dirichlet model results in posterior interval expectation for mutual information, and in a set of plausible trees consistent with the data. Reliable inference about the actual tree is achieved by focusing on the substructure common to all the plausible trees. We develop an exact algorithm that infers the substructure in time O(m^4), m being the number of random variables. The new algorithm is applied to a set of data sampled from a known distribution. The method is shown to reliably infer edges of the actual tree even when the data are very scarce, unlike the traditional approach. Finally, we provide lower and upper credibility limits for mutual information under the imprecise Dirichlet model. These enable the previous developments to be extended to a full inferential method for trees.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figure

Nuclear matter incompressibility coefficient in relativistic and nonrelativistic microscopic models

We systematically analyze the recent claim that nonrelativistic and relativistic mean field (RMF) based random phase approximation (RPA) calculations for the centroid energy E_0 of the isoscalar giant monopole resonance yield for the nuclear matter incompressibility coefficient, K_{nm}, values which differ by about 20%. For an appropriate comparison with the RMF based RPA calculations, we obtain the parameters for the Skyrme force used in the nonrelativistic model by adopting the same procedure as employed in the determination of the NL3 parameter set of an effective Lagrangian used in the RMF model. Our investigation suggest that the discrepancy between the values of K_{nm} predicted by the relativistic and nonrelativistic models is significantly less than 20%.Comment: Revtex file (13 pages), appearing in PRC-Rapid Com

Absence of association between behavior problems in childhood and hypertension in midlife

Background It is known that behavior in childhood is associated with certain physical and mental health problems in midlife. However, there is limited evidence on the role of childhood behavior problems in the development of hypertension in adulthood. The present study aimed to examine whether behavior problems in childhood influenced the risk of hypertension in midlife in the United Kingdom 1958 birth cohort. Methods The 1958 British birth cohort comprised 17,638 individuals born in the first week of March 1958 in the United Kingdom. Behavior problems were assessed at 7, 11, and 16 years of age by parents and teachers. At age 45, blood pressure was measured and hypertension was recorded if blood pressure was ≥140/90 mm Hg or if the participants were informed by their health professionals that they had high blood pressure. Behavioral information was reported according to the Rutter Children's Behaviour Questionnaire (RCBQ) and the Bristol Social Adjustment Guide (BSAG). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to examine behavior problems in childhood in relation to hypertension at 45 years of age according to logistic regression analysis, with adjustment for sex, social class in childhood and adulthood, childhood cognition, birth weight, gestational age at birth, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity. Results Behavior problems reported by parents at 7, 11, and 16 years were not associated with hypertension in midlife (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.81, 1.07; OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.81, 1.11; OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.85, 1.12, respectively). Similarly, teacher-reported behavior problems at 7, 11, and 16 years were not associated with hypertension in midlife (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.72, 1.18; OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.84, 1.02; OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.92, 1.15, respectively). Further separate analyses showed similar results for males and females. Conclusion There is no association between behavior problems in childhood and hypertension in midlife

Excluded Volume Effects in the Quark Meson Coupling Model

Excluded volume effects are incorporated in the quark meson coupling model to take into account in a phenomenological way the hard core repulsion of the nuclear force. The formalism employed is thermodynamically consistent and does not violate causality. The effects of the excluded volume on in-medium nucleon properties and the nuclear matter equation of state are investigated as a function of the size of the hard core. It is found that in-medium nucleon properties are not altered significantly by the excluded volume, even for large hard core radii, and the equation of state becomes stiffer as the size of the hard core increases.Comment: 14 pages, revtex, 6 figure

Oxidised cosmic acceleration

We give detailed proofs of several new no-go theorems for constructing flat four-dimensional accelerating universes from warped dimensional reduction. These new theorems improve upon previous ones by weakening the energy conditions, by including time-dependent compactifications, and by treating accelerated expansion that is not precisely de Sitter. We show that de Sitter expansion violates the higher-dimensional null energy condition (NEC) if the compactification manifold M is one-dimensional, if its intrinsic Ricci scalar R vanishes everywhere, or if R and the warp function satisfy a simple limit condition. If expansion is not de Sitter, we establish threshold equation-of-state parameters w below which accelerated expansion must be transient. Below the threshold w there are bounds on the number of e-foldings of expansion. If M is one-dimensional or R everywhere vanishing, exceeding the bound implies the NEC is violated. If R does not vanish everywhere on M, exceeding the bound implies the strong energy condition (SEC) is violated. Observationally, the w thresholds indicate that experiments with finite resolution in w can cleanly discriminate between different models which satisfy or violate the relevant energy conditions.Comment: v2: corrections, references adde

Strangeness nuclear physics: a critical review on selected topics

Selected topics in strangeness nuclear physics are critically reviewed. This includes production, structure and weak decay of $\Lambda$--Hypernuclei, the $\bar K$ nuclear interaction and the possible existence of $\bar K$ bound states in nuclei. Perspectives for future studies on these issues are also outlined.Comment: 63 pages, 51 figures, accepted for publication on European Physical Journal

State minimum wage laws and newly diagnosed cases of HIV among heterosexual black residents of US metropolitan areas

This ecologic cohort study explores the relationship between state minimum wage laws and rates of HIV diagnoses among heterosexual black residents of U.S metropolitan areas over an 8-year span. Specifically, we applied hierarchical linear modeling to investigate whether state-level variations in minimum wage laws, adjusted for cost-of-living and inflation, were associated with rates of new HIV diagnoses among heterosexual black residents of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs; n=73), between 2008 and 2015. Findings suggest that an inverse relationship exists between baseline state minimum wages and initial rates of newly diagnosed HIV cases among heterosexual black individuals, after adjusting for potential confounders. MSAs with a minimum wage that was $1 higher at baseline had a 27.12% lower rate of newly diagnosed HIV cases. Exploratory analyses suggest that income inequality may mediate this relationship. If subsequent research establishes a causal relationship between minimum wage and this outcome, efforts to increase minimum wages should be incorporated into HIV prevention strategies for this vulnerable population