Third Earth Resources Technology Satellite Symposium. Volume 3: Discipline summary reports

Presentations at the conference covered the following disciplines: (1) agriculture, forestry, and range resources; (2) land use and mapping; (3) mineral resources, geological structure, and landform surveys; (4) water resources; (5) marine resources; (6) environment surveys; and (7) interpretation techniques

Third Earth Resources Technology Satellite Symposium. Volume 2: Summary of results

Summaries are provided of significant results taken from presentations at the symposium along with some typical examples of the applications of ERTS-1 data for solving resources management problems at the national, state, and local levels

Quantum Lattice Fluctuations and Luminescence in C_60

We consider luminescence in photo-excited neutral C_60 using the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model applied to a single C_60 molecule. To calculate the luminescence we use a collective coordinate method where our collective coordinate resembles the displacement of the carbon atoms of the Hg(8) phonon mode and extrapolates between the ground state "dimerisation" and the exciton polaron. There is good agreement for the existing luminescence peak spacing and fair agreement for the relative intensity. We predict the existence of further peaks not yet resolved in experiment. PACS Numbers : 78.65.Hc, 74.70.Kn, 36.90+

Structure and Response in the World Trade Network

We examine how the structure of the world trade network has been shaped by globalization and recessions over the last 40 years. We show that by treating the world trade network as an evolving system, theory predicts the trade network is more sensitive to evolutionary shocks and recovers more slowly from them now than it did 40 years ago, due to structural changes in the world trade network induced by globalization. We also show that recession-induced change to the world trade network leads to an \emph{increased} hierarchical structure of the global trade network for a few years after the recession.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev. Let

Analysis of plasma instabilities and verification of the BOUT code for the Large Plasma Device

The properties of linear instabilities in the Large Plasma Device [W. Gekelman et al., Rev. Sci. Inst., 62, 2875 (1991)] are studied both through analytic calculations and solving numerically a system of linearized collisional plasma fluid equations using the 3D fluid code BOUT [M. Umansky et al., Contrib. Plasma Phys. 180, 887 (2009)], which has been successfully modified to treat cylindrical geometry. Instability drive from plasma pressure gradients and flows is considered, focusing on resistive drift waves, the Kelvin-Helmholtz and rotational interchange instabilities. A general linear dispersion relation for partially ionized collisional plasmas including these modes is derived and analyzed. For LAPD relevant profiles including strongly driven flows it is found that all three modes can have comparable growth rates and frequencies. Detailed comparison with solutions of the analytic dispersion relation demonstrates that BOUT accurately reproduces all characteristics of linear modes in this system.Comment: Published in Physics of Plasmas, 17, 102107 (2010

Developmental Differences in the Ability to Provide Temporal Information about Repeated Events

Children (n = 372) aged 4 - 8 years participated in 1 or 4 occurrences of a similar event and were interviewed 1 week later. Compared to 85% of children who participated once, less than 25% with repeated experience gave the exact number of times they participated, although all knew they participated more than once. Children with repeated experience were asked additional temporal questions and there were clear developmental differences. Older children were more able than younger children to judge relative order and temporal position of the four occurrences. They also demonstrated improved temporal memory for the first and last relative to the middle occurrences, while younger children did so only for the first. This is the first systematic demonstration of children’s memory for temporal information after a repeated event. We discuss implications for theories of temporal memory development and the practical implications of asking children to provide temporal information

Occurrence of normal and anomalous diffusion in polygonal billiard channels

From extensive numerical simulations, we find that periodic polygonal billiard channels with angles which are irrational multiples of pi generically exhibit normal diffusion (linear growth of the mean squared displacement) when they have a finite horizon, i.e. when no particle can travel arbitrarily far without colliding. For the infinite horizon case we present numerical tests showing that the mean squared displacement instead grows asymptotically as t log t. When the unit cell contains accessible parallel scatterers, however, we always find anomalous super-diffusion, i.e. power-law growth with an exponent larger than 1. This behavior cannot be accounted for quantitatively by a simple continuous-time random walk model. Instead, we argue that anomalous diffusion correlates with the existence of families of propagating periodic orbits. Finally we show that when a configuration with parallel scatterers is approached there is a crossover from normal to anomalous diffusion, with the diffusion coefficient exhibiting a power-law divergence.Comment: 9 pages, 15 figures. Revised after referee reports: redrawn figures, additional comments. Some higher quality figures available at http://www.fis.unam.mx/~dsander

Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Quantifying Model Complexity via Functional Decomposition for Better Post-Hoc Interpretability

Post-hoc model-agnostic interpretation methods such as partial dependence plots can be employed to interpret complex machine learning models. While these interpretation methods can be applied regardless of model complexity, they can produce misleading and verbose results if the model is too complex, especially w.r.t. feature interactions. To quantify the complexity of arbitrary machine learning models, we propose model-agnostic complexity measures based on functional decomposition: number of features used, interaction strength and main effect complexity. We show that post-hoc interpretation of models that minimize the three measures is more reliable and compact. Furthermore, we demonstrate the application of these measures in a multi-objective optimization approach which simultaneously minimizes loss and complexity