The Quantity Theory of Money is Valid. The New Keynesians are Wrong!

We test the quantity theory of money (QTM) using a novel approach and a large new sample. We do not follow the usual approach of first differentiating the logarithm of the Cambridge equation to obtain an equation relating the growth rate of real GDP, the growth rate of money and inflation. These variables must then again be ‘integrated’ by averaging in order to obtain stable relationships. Instead we suggest a much simpler procedure for testing directly the stability of the coefficient of the Cambridge equation. For 125 countries and post-war data we find the coefficient to be surprisingly stable. We do not select for high inflation episodes as was done in most empirical studies; inflation rates do not even appear in our data set. Much work supporting the QTM has been done by economic historians and at the University of Chicago by Milton Friedman and his associates. The QTM was a foundation stone of the monetarist revolution. Subsequently belief in it waned. The currently dominant New Keynesian School, implicitly or explicitly denies the validity of the QTM. We survey this history and argue that the QTM is valid and New Keynesians are wrong

Multimodal Management of Atrophic Acne Scarring in the Aging Face

Atrophic facial acne scarring is a widely prevalent condition that can have a negative impact on a patient’s quality of life. The appearance of these scars is often worsened by the normal effects of aging. A number of options are available for the treatment of acne scarring, including chemical peeling, dermabrasion, ablative or nonablative laser resurfacing, dermal fillers, and surgical techniques such as subcision or punch excision. Depending on the type and extent of scarring, a multimodal approach is generally necessary to provide satisfactory results. Resurfacing techniques correct surface irregularities, long-lasting dermal fillers address the volume loss resulting from acne, and sub-superficial musculoaponeurotic system (SMAS) face-lift procedures counter the soft tissue laxity and ptosis associated with aging. This article briefly reviews the evolution of individual approaches to treating atrophic acne scarring, followed by case examples illustrating results that can be achieved using a multimodal approach. Representative cases from patients in their 30s, 40s, and 50s are presented. In the author’s clinical practice, multimodal approaches incorporating fractionated laser, injectable poly-l-lactic acid, and sub-SMAS face-lift procedures have achieved optimal aesthetic outcomes, high patient satisfaction, and durability of aesthetic effect over time

Inflammatory pseudo-tumor of the liver: a rare pathological entity

Inflammatory pseudo-tumor (IPT) of the liver is a rare benign neoplasm and is often mistaken as a malignant entity. Few cases have been reported in the literature and the precise etiology of inflammatory pseudotumor remains unknown. Patients usually present with fever, abdominal pain and jaundice. The proliferation of spindled myofibroblast cells mixed with variable amounts of reactive inflammatory cells is characteristics of IPT. We reviewed the literature regarding possible etiology for IPT with a possible suggested etiology

Aerosol forcing of the position of the intertropical convergence zone since AD1550

The position of the intertropical convergence zone is an important control on the distribution of low-latitude precipitation. Its position is largely controlled by hemisphere temperature contrasts1, 2. The release of aerosols by human activities may have resulted in a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone since the early 1900s (refs 1, 3, 4, 5, 6) by muting the warming of the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere over this interval1, 7, 8, but this proposed shift remains equivocal. Here we reconstruct monthly rainfall over Belize for the past 456 years from variations in the carbon isotope composition of a well-dated, monthly resolved speleothem. We identify an unprecedented drying trend since ad 1850 that indicates a southward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone. This drying coincides with increasing aerosol emissions in the Northern Hemisphere and also marks a breakdown in the relationship between Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the position of the intertropical convergence zone observed earlier in the record. We also identify nine short-lived drying events since ad 1550 each following a large volcanic eruption in the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that anthropogenic aerosol emissions have led to a reduction of rainfall in the northern tropics during the twentieth century, and suggest that geographic changes in aerosol emissions should be considered when assessing potential future rainfall shifts in the tropics

Small Molecule, Non-Peptide p75NTR Ligands Inhibit Aβ-Induced Neurodegeneration and Synaptic Impairment

The p75 neurotrophin receptor (p75NTR) is expressed by neurons particularly vulnerable in Alzheimer's disease (AD). We tested the hypothesis that non-peptide, small molecule p75NTR ligands found to promote survival signaling might prevent Aβ-induced degeneration and synaptic dysfunction. These ligands inhibited Aβ-induced neuritic dystrophy, death of cultured neurons and Aβ-induced death of pyramidal neurons in hippocampal slice cultures. Moreover, ligands inhibited Aβ-induced activation of molecules involved in AD pathology including calpain/cdk5, GSK3β and c-Jun, and tau phosphorylation, and prevented Aβ-induced inactivation of AKT and CREB. Finally, a p75NTR ligand blocked Aβ-induced hippocampal LTP impairment. These studies support an extensive intersection between p75NTR signaling and Aβ pathogenic mechanisms, and introduce a class of specific small molecule ligands with the unique ability to block multiple fundamental AD-related signaling pathways, reverse synaptic impairment and inhibit Aβ-induced neuronal dystrophy and death

Measuring Health Utilities in Children and Adolescents: A Systematic Review of the Literature.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this review was to evaluate the use of all direct and indirect methods used to estimate health utilities in both children and adolescents. Utilities measured pre- and post-intervention are combined with the time over which health states are experienced to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost-utility analyses (CUAs) estimate the cost-effectiveness of health technologies based on their costs and benefits using QALYs as a measure of benefit. The accurate measurement of QALYs is dependent on using appropriate methods to elicit health utilities. OBJECTIVE: We sought studies that measured health utilities directly from patients or their proxies. We did not exclude those studies that also included adults in the analysis, but excluded those studies focused only on adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We evaluated 90 studies from a total of 1,780 selected from the databases. 47 (52%) studies were CUAs incorporated into randomised clinical trials; 23 (26%) were health-state utility assessments; 8 (9%) validated methods and 12 (13%) compared existing or new methods. 22 unique direct or indirect calculation methods were used a total of 137 times. Direct calculation through standard gamble, time trade-off and visual analogue scale was used 32 times. The EuroQol EQ-5D was the most frequently-used single method, selected for 41 studies. 15 of the methods used were generic methods and the remaining 7 were disease-specific. 48 of the 90 studies (53%) used some form of proxy, with 26 (29%) using proxies exclusively to estimate health utilities. CONCLUSIONS: Several child- and adolescent-specific methods are still being developed and validated, leaving many studies using methods that have not been designed or validated for use in children or adolescents. Several studies failed to justify using proxy respondents rather than administering the methods directly to the patients. Only two studies examined missing responses to the methods administered with respect to the patients' ages

Banking and Financial Crises in United States History: What Guidance can History Offer Policymakers?

This paper assesses the validity of comparisons of the current financial crisis with past crises in the United States. We highlight aspects of two National Banking Era crises (the Panic of 1873 and the Panic of 1907) that are relevant for comparison with the Panic of 2008. In 1873, overinvestment in railroad debt and the default of railroad companies on that debt led to the failure of numerous brokerage houses, an antecedent to the modern investment bank. For the Panic of 1907, panic-related deposit withdrawals centered on the less regulated trust companies, which were less directly linked to the existing lender of last resort, similar to investment banks in 2008. The popular press has made numerous references to the banking crises (there were three main ones) of the Great Depression as relevant comparisons to the present crisis. This paper argues that such an analogy is inaccurate in general

Why do banks promise to pay par on demand?

We survey the theories of why banks promise to pay par on demand and examine evidence about the conditions under which banks have promised to pay the par value of deposits and banknotes on demand when holding only fractional reserves. The theoretical literature can be broadly divided into four strands: liquidity provision, asymmetric information, legal restrictions, and a medium of exchange. We assume that it is not zero cost to make a promise to redeem a liability at par value on demand. If so, then the conditions in the theories that result in par redemption are possible explanations of why banks promise to pay par on demand. If the explanation based on customers’ demand for liquidity is correct, payment of deposits at par will be promised when banks hold assets that are illiquid in the short run. If the asymmetric-information explanation based on the difficulty of valuing assets is correct, the marketability of banks’ assets determines whether banks promise to pay par. If the legal restrictions explanation of par redemption is correct, banks will not promise to pay par if they are not required to do so. If the transaction explanation is correct, banks will promise to pay par value only if the deposits are used in transactions. After the survey of the theoretical literature, we examine the history of banking in several countries in different eras: fourth-century Athens, medieval Italy, Japan, and free banking and money market mutual funds in the United States. We find that all of the theories can explain some of the observed banking arrangements, and none explain all of them