Projection in snowfall characteristics over the European Alps and its sensitivity to the SST changes: results from a 50 km resolution AGCM

The end-of-century projection of the snowfall characteristics over the Alps region is studied using the 50-km resolution atmospheric global climate model, HiRAM (high-resolution atmospheric model). The model is forced by three different patterns of projections in the sea surface temperature (SST) in order to assess the sensitivity of snowfall characteristics to theses patterns. It is found that the mean snowfall intensity and frequency is poorly affected by the differences in SST forcing. However, the projections of heavy snowfall events strongly depend on the SST scenario. The changes in temperature and frequency of precipitation and freezing days over the Alps were investigated. We found that these variables did not exhibit a clear dependence to the SST scenario and could not explain the differences observed in snowfall projections. Changes in the moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean to Europe were found significantly different between each scenario and are assumed to be the main factor affecting the projections of snowfalls, by providing more or less moisture supply

Human influence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China

Anthropogenic influences are estimated to have reduced the likelihood of an extreme cold event in midwinter with the intensity equal to or stronger than the record of 2016 in eastern China by about two‐thirds

Impacts of Anthropogenic Forcings and El-Nino on Chinese Extreme Temperatures

This study investigates the potential influences of anthropogenic forcings and natural variability on the risk of summer extreme temperatures over China. We use three multi-thousand-member ensemble simulations with different forcings (with or without anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions) to evaluate the human impact, and with sea surface temperature patterns from three different years around the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 2015/16 event (years 2014, 2015 and 2016) to evaluate the impact of natural variability. A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to fit the ensemble results. Based on these model results, we find that, during the peak of ENSO (2015), daytime extreme temperatures are smaller over the central China region compared to a normal year (2014). During 2016, the risk of nighttime extreme temperatures is largely increased over the eastern coastal region. Both anomalies are of the same magnitude as the anthropogenic influence. Thus, ENSO can amplify or counterbalance (at a regional and annual scale) anthropogenic effects on extreme summer temperatures over China. Changes are mainly due to changes in the GEV location parameter. Thus, anomalies are due to a shift in the distributions and not to a change in temperature variability

Individual and environmental determinants associated with longer times to access pediatric rheumatology centers for patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis, a JIR cohort study.

Despite guidelines, poor access to appropriate care for juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients remains a global issue. Prompt referral to a pediatric rheumatology (PR) center and effective care is known to be critical for changing the natural history of the disease and improving long-term prognosis. This project assesses socio-economic factors of delayed referral to a pediatric rheumatologist (PRst) for JIA patients in France and Switzerland within the Juvenile Inflammatory Rheumatism (JIR) Cohort. All patients diagnosed with JIA, presenting at one center of the JIRcohort in France or Switzerland with additional data on referral pathway were included. Patient characteristics at first visit to the PR center, dates of visits to healthcare providers during referral, and parent characteristics were extracted from the JIRcohort database. Two hundred fifty children were included. The overall median time to first PR assessment was 2.4 months [1.3; 6.9] and ranged widely across the JIA subtypes, from 1.4 months [0.6; 3.8] for children with systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (sJIA) to 5.3 months [2.0; 19.1] for children with enthesitis-related arthritis (ERA). A diagnosis of ERA and an appointment with an orthopedist during the referral pathway were significantly associated with a longer time before the first PR visit (hazard ratio HR 0.50 [95% CI: 0.29; 0.84]) and HR 0.68 [95% CI: 0.49; 0.93], respectively) in multivariable analysis. Having a mother with a post-graduate educational attainment level was tendentially associated with a shorter time before the first PR visit, (HR 1.32 [95% CI: 0.99; 1.78]). Time to first PRst visit was most often short compared to other studies and close to the British recommendations. However, this time remained too long for many patients. We observed no social inequities in access to a PRst, but we show the need to improve effective pathway and access to a PR center for JIA patients

Attributing human influence on July 2017 Chinese heatwave: the influence of sea-surface temperatures

On 21st-25thJuly 2017 a record breaking heatwave occurred in Central Eastern China affecting nearly half of the national population and causing severe impacts on public health, agriculture and infrastructure. Here, we compare attribution results from two UK Met Office Hadley Centre models, HadGEM3-GA6 and weather@home (HadAM3P driving 50km HadRM3P). Within HadGEM3-GA6 July 2017-like heatwaves were unequaled in the ensemble representing the world without human influences. Such heatwaves became approximately a 1 in 50 year event and increased by a factor of 4.8 (5-95% range of 3.1 to 8.0) in weather@home as a result of human activity. Considering the risk ratio (RR) for the full range of return periods shows a discrepancy at all return times between the two model results. Within weather@home a range of different counterfactual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) patterns were used whereas HadGEM3-GA6 used a single estimate. The global mean difference in SST (between factual and counterfactual simulations) is shown to be related to the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) location parameter and consequently the RR, especially for return periods less than 50 years. It is suggested that a suitable range of SST patterns are used for future attribution studies to ensure that this source of uncertainty is represented within the simulations and subsequent attribution results. It is shown that the risk change between factual and counterfactual simulations is not purely a simple shift in the distribution (i.e. change in GEV location parameter). For return periods greater than 50 years the GEV shape parameter is found to strongly influence the RR determined with the GEV scale parameter affecting only the most severe events

Anthropogenic influences on the persistent night-time heat wave in summer 2018 over North-East China

Persistent night-time heat waves like the event of summer 2018 in Northeast China are extremely rare (about a one-in-a-500-year event) in the natural world, but now have become about a one-in-60-year event with anthropogenic warming

Was the extended rainy winter of 2018/2019 over the Middle and Lower reaches of the Yangtze River driven by anthropogenic forcing?

Anthropogenic forcing reduced the probability of rainfall amount in the extended rainy winter of 2018/19 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China, by ~19%, but exerted no influence on the excessive rainy days, based on HadGEM3-GA6-N216 ensembles. Instead the natural variability played a large and important role in this event