Improved large-area forest increment information in Europe through harmonisation of National Forest Inventories

14 Pág.Consistent knowledge about the increment in European forests gained amplified importance in European policies and decision processes related to forest-based bioeconomy, carbon sequestration, sustainable forest management and environmental changes. Until now, large-area increment information from European countries was lacking international comparability. In this study we present a harmonisation framework in accordance with the principles and the approach established for the harmonisation of National Forest Inventories (NFIs) in Europe. 11 European NFIs, representing a broad range of increment measurement and estimation methods, developed unified reference definitions and methods that were subsequently implemented to provide harmonised increment estimates by NUTS regions (Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics of the European Union), main forest types and tree species groups, and to rate the impact of harmonisation measures. The main emphasis was on gross annual increment (GAI), however, also annual natural losses (ANL) and net annual increment (NAI) were estimated. The data from the latest available NFI cycles were processed. The participating countries represent a forest area of about 130 million ha, and 82% of the European Unions’ (EU) forest area, respectively. The increments were estimated in terms of volume (m³ year−1, m³ ha−1 year−1) and above-ground biomass (t year−1, t ha−1 year−1). The harmonised GAI volume estimates deviate in a range of +12.3% to −26.5% from the estimates according to the national definitions and estimation methods. Within the study area, the harmonised estimates show a considerable range over the NUTS regions for GAI, from 0.6 to 12.3 m³ ha−1 year−1, and 0.8–6.4 t ha−1 year−1, of volume and above-ground biomass, respectively. The largest increment estimates are found in Central Europe and gradually decrease towards the North, South, West and East. In most countries coniferous forests show larger increment estimates per hectare than broadleaved forests while mixed forests are at an intermediate level. However, in some instances, the differences were small or mixed forests revealed the largest increment estimates. The most important tree species groups in the study area are Pinus spp. and Picea spp., contributing 29% and 26% of the estimated total GAI volume, respectively. The shares of the prevalent broadleaved species are smaller with contributions of 9%, 7% and 6% by Quercus spp., Fagus sylvatica and Betula spp. The results underline the importance of harmonisation in international forest statistics. Looking ahead, harmonised large-area increment estimation is pivotal for accurate monitoring and evidence-based policy decisions in the changing context of future forest ecosystems dynamics, management strategies and wood availability.This research was supported by the Specific Contracts No. 20 and 21 “Use of National Forest Inventories data to harmonise and improve the current knowledge on forest increment in Europe” in the context of the “Framework contract for the provision of forest data and services in support to the JRC activities and applications on forest resources (Contract Number 934340)” of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.Peer reviewe

Technische Zusammenfassung

Die Technische Zusammenfassung des APCC-Sonderberichts ″Landnutzung und Klimawandel in Österreich″ umfasst die Kernbotschaften der Kapitel 1–9. In ihr sind die Hauptaussagen zu den sozioökonomischen und klimatischen Treibern der Landnutzungsänderungen, zu den Auswirkungen von Landnutzung und -bewirtschaftung auf den Klimawandel, zu Minderungs- und Anpassungsoptionen im Kontext nachhaltiger Entwicklungsziele sowie zu Synergien, Zielkonflikten und Umsetzungsbarrieren von Klimamaßnahmen enthalten

Alternative tree species under climate warming in managed European forests

This study estimates the present and future distribution potential of 12 thermophilic and rare tree species for Europe based on climate-soil sensitive species distribution models (SDMs), and compares them to the two major temperate and boreal tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies). We used European national forest inventory data with 1.3 million plots to predict the distribution of the 12 + 2 tree species in Europe today and under future warming scenarios of +2.9 and +4.5 °C. The SDMs that were used to calculate the distributions were in a first step only given climate variables for explanation. In a second step, deviations which could not be explained by the climate models were tested in an additional soil variable-based model. Site-index models were applied to the found species distribution to estimate the growth performance (site index) under the given climate. We find a northward shift of 461 km and 697 km for the thermophilic species over the regarded time period from 2060 to 2080 under a warming scenario of 2.9 °C and 4.5 °C, respectively. Potential winners of climatic warming have their distribution centroid below 48°N. Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies will lose great parts of their potential distribution range (approx. 55 and 60%, respectively). An index of area gain and growth performance revealed Ulmus laevis, Quercus rubra, Quercus cerris and Robinia pseudoacacia as interesting alternatives in managed temperate forests currently dominated by F. sylvatica and P. abies. The 12 investigated species are already in focus in forestry and it has been shown that the changing climate creates conditions for a targeted promotion in European forests. Nevertheless, area winners exhibited lower growth performances. So, forest conversion with these warm-adapted species goes hand in hand with loss of overall growth performance compared to current species composition. So, the results are a premise for a further discussion on the ecological consequences and the consistency with forest socio-economic goals and conservation policies