A Simple Model for Inflation Targeting in Brazil

Based on a 6 equation model by Haldane and Battini (1999), we estimated a Phillips and an IS equations for Brazil after the Real Plan, in order to study the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy. The results show that interest rate affects output gap with a lag of one quarter and output is positively related to inflation with a one lag only. The devaluation of the nominal exchange rate has also a contemporaneous effect on inflation. We also made stochastic simulations in order to depict the inflation and output gap volatility loci under alternative Taylor-type rules and under an optimal rule, which minimizes a loss function that depends on a weighted average of inflation and output gap variances. The stochastic simulation showed that when compared to the variance in inflation, output gap variance appears to be more sensitive to the weights given in the loss function. It also showed that optimization procedures longer than 6 periods are inefficient and the most efficient frontier horizons are set within the range of 2 to 4 periods. Finally, sub-optimal but simple rules, like Taylor type rules can perform as well as the optimal ones, depending on the parameters chosen and on the preferences of the Central Bank.

Moving brands : a search routine study on animated logos

Este trabalho buscou compreender a rotina de busca promovida, frente ao consumidor, pelo uso de marcas em movimento, por logos animados, dentro de ambientes online como websites, sites de compra e redes sociais. Foi realizado um experimento com 50 pessoas através do uso de eyetracking (rastreamento ocular) em que buscou-se compreender o comportamento da atenção de cada pessoa dentro destes ambientes online. Este trabalho analisa os meios digitais, em crescimento, frente ao uso de marcas animadas, que é um assunto que ainda está evoluindo e ganhando importância e notoriedade. Outro ponto de relevância é o levantamento de dados buscando uma aproximação com a realidade tanto nos estímulos, quanto nos dados analisados, graças à ferramenta usada na coleta. Foi encontrado que os logos ajudam a promover essa rotina de busca, sendo um dos primeiros pontos de fixação, bem como atraindo marginalmente mais tempo de atenção, medido através de fixações. No entanto, este efeito só se comprovou em alguns casos, o que mostrou que o meio, bem como características demográficas e comportamentais, pode influenciar na rotina de busca do consumidor, seja ela mais exploratória e sem padrões, quando o meio é menos conhecido ou o consumidor tem um papel menos ativo ou interativo, ou seja quando é mais direcionada para objetivos, quando ele conhece os meios e já possui uma predisposição a seguir uma rotina pré-determinada baseada em vivências e experiências. Além de contribuir para as teorias rotina de buscas e de atenção dentro de uma lógica de comportamento, esta pesquisa também ajuda a construir um corpo de estudos relacionados a logos animados. Estes entendimentos podem ser úteis para empresas que buscam melhorar sua presença online e otimizar seus esforços de marca.This work sought to understand the search routine promoted, concerning the consumer, by the use of moving brands, animated logos, in online environments such as websites, e-commerce and social networks. An experiment was conducted with 50 people through the use of eyetracking in order to understand the behavior of each person's attention within these online environments. This work analyzes the growing digital media, facing the use of animated brands, which is a subject that is still evolving and will gain importance and notoriety. Another point of relevance is the gathering of data in the search for an approximation with reality, both regarding the stimuli and the data analyzed, thanks to the tool used in the data collection. It was found that logos help to promote this search routine by being one of the first fixation points as well as attracting marginally more attention, measured through fixations. However, this effect has only been proven in some cases, which showed that the medium, as well as demographic and behavioral characteristics, can influence the consumer search routine, be it more exploratory and without patterns, when the medium is less known, or the consumer has a less active or interactive role, or be it when he is more goal-directed, when he knows the means to follow and already has a predisposition to seek a predetermined routine based on experiences and experiences. In addition to contributing to the search routine theory and attention theory within a logic of behavior, this research also helps to build a body of studies related to animated logos. These understandings can be useful for companies looking to improve their online presence and optimize their brand efforts

Uncovered Interest Parity with Fundamentals: A Brazilian Exchange Rate Forecast Model

One of the most challenging elements of the inflation-targeting framework is the exchange rate forecast. Wadhwani (1999) proposed a UIP, where real variables like the unemployment differential, the current account differential, and the excess return of financial assets affect the expected exchange rate. The objectives of this paper are first to include, as in Wadhwani (1999), some real variables to anchor exchange rate expectations. In our case, the long-run value of the exchange rate is determined by balanced external accounts. Second, we use this approach to simulate the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in an inflation-targeting structural model for Brazil. Finally, we compare the results with those of a random walk specification. The impulse responses under the UIP-with-fundamentals model seemed to be more realistic than those obtained by using other specifications for exchange rate forecasts.

The role of the anaphase-promoting complex/cyclosome in plant growth

The anaphase-promoting complex/cyclosome (APC/C) is a multi-subunit E3 ubiquitin ligase that plays a major role in the progression of the eukaryotic cell cycle. This unusual protein complex targets key cell cycle regulators, such as mitotic cyclins and securins, for degradation via the 26S proteasome by ubiquitination, triggering the metaphase-to-anaphase transition and exit from mitosis. Because of its essential role in cell cycle regulation, the APC/C has been extensively studied in mammals and yeasts, but relatively less in plants. Evidence shows that, besides its well-known role in cell cycle regulation, the APC/C also has functions beyond the cell cycle. In metazoans, the APC/C has been implicated in cell differentiation, disease control, basic metabolism and neuronal survival. Recent studies also have shed light on specific functions of the APC/C during plant development. Plant APC/C subunits and activators have been reported to play a role in cellular differentiation, vascular development, shoot branching, female and male gametophyte development and embryogenesis. Here, we discuss our current understanding of the APC/C controlling plant growth

Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility

This paper assesses the challenges faced by the inflation-targeting regime in Brazil. The confidence crisis in the future performance of the Brazilian economy and the increase in risk aversion in international markets were responsible for a sudden stop of capital inflows in 2002 that caused a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. The inflation-targeting framework has played a critical role in macroeconomic stabilization. We stress two important challenges: construction of credibility and exchange rate volatility. The estimations indicate the following results: i) the inflation targets have worked as an important coordinator of expectations; ii) the Central Bank has reacted strongly to inflation expectations; iii) there has been a reduction in the degree of inflation persistence; and iv) the exchange rate pass-through for "administered or monitored" prices is two times higher than for "market" prices.

Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Lessons and Challenges

This paper assesses the first three years of the inflation-targeting regime in Brazil adopted in July 1999. The inflation-targeting framework has shown to be highly important for the macroeconomic stabilization. We stress three important challenges: construction of credibility, change in relative prices, and exchange rate volatility. The estimations indicate the following results: i) the inflation targets have worked as an important coordinator of expectations; ii) the Central Bank has reacted strongly to inflation expectations; iii) there has been a reduction in the degree of persistence in inflation and in the volatility of inflation and output; iv) the exchange rate pass-through for "administered or monitored" prices is more than two times higher than for "market" prices. We also describe the methodology the Central Bank has developed to deal with inflationary shocks, which quantifies the sources of inflation, and examine some issues involved in the institutional design of inflation targeting.

Fatores sociais, econômicos e demográficos associados à geração de lixo domiciliar na cidade de Belo Horizonte

Com o advento da Revolução Industrial, a capacidade crescente de geração de novos produtos, combinada com o crescimento populacional e a urbanização, provocou um aumento considerável na geração de resíduos que se tornou um dos grandes problemas de gerenciamento urbano dos tempos modernos. Assim, surgiu o interesse em conduzir um estudo, cujo objetivo consiste em identificar os fatores sociais, econômicos e demográficos associados à geração de resíduos sólidos na cidade de Belo Horizonte. Para isso, foram utilizados os dados sobre a quantidade de resíduos sólidos gerada em Belo Horizonte, de acordo com a Superintendência de Limpeza Urbana (SLU), relativos ao ano de 2000, os dados provenientes do Censo Demográfico de 2000, publicados pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) e os dados do IQVU (Índice de Qualidade de Vida Urbana) do ano de 2000, calculados pela Secretaria de Planejamento da Prefeitura de Belo Horizonte. O método adotado para identificação dos fatores associados à geração de resíduos sólidos foi o dos Modelos Lineares de Regressão Múltipla. Os resultados mostram que o IQVU e o número de moradores são as variáveis que mais impactam a geração de resíduos sólidos no município de Belo Horizonte, ainda que exista alguma influência de variáveis tais como sexo, raça/cor, idade e renda do responsável pelo domicílio e tipo de esgotamento sanitário. Espera-se que os resultados possam auxiliar na obtenção de subsídios para o entendimento de questões essenciais para a formulação de políticas públicas de controle da geração de lixo pelas administrações municipais

A simple model for inflation targeting in Brazil

Based on a 6 equation model by Haldane and Battini (1999), we estimated a Phillips and an IS equations for Brazil after the Real Plan, in order to study the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy. The results show that interest rate affects output gap with a lag of one quarter and output is positively related to inflation with a one lag only. The devaluation of the nominal exchange rate has also a contemporaneous effect on inflation. We also made stochastic simulations in order to depict the inflation and output gap volatility loci under alternative Taylor-type rules and under an optimal rule, which minimizes a loss function that depends on a weighted average of inflation and output gap variances. The stochastic simulation showed that when compare to the variance in inflation, output gap variance appears to be more sensitive to the weights given in the loss function. It also showed that optimization procedures longer than 6 periods are inefficient and the most efficient frontier horizons are set within the range of 2 to 4 periods. Finally, sub-optimal but simple rules, like Taylor type rules can perform as well as the optimal ones, depending on the parameters chosen and on the preferences ofthe Central Bank