Technical Note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty

There is a general trend for increasing inclusion of uncertainty estimation in the environmental modelling domain. We present the CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) Toolbox, an open source MATLABTM toolbox for uncertainty estimation aimed at scientists and practitioners that are not necessarily experts in uncertainty estimation. The toolbox focusses on environmental simulation models and hence employs a range of different Monte Carlo methods for forward and conditioned uncertainty estimation. The methods included span both formal statistical and informal approaches, which are demonstrated using a range of modelling applications set up as workflow scripts. The workflow scripts provide examples of how to utilise toolbox functions for a variety of modelling applications and hence aid the user in defining their own workflow: additional help is provided by extensively commented code. The toolbox implementation aims to increase the uptake of uncertainty estimation methods within a framework designed to be open and explicit, in a way that tries to represent best practice in applying the methods included. Best practice in the evaluation of modelling assumptions and choices, specifically including epistemic uncertainties, is also included by the incorporation of a condition tree that allows users to record assumptions and choices made as an audit trail log.</p

A novel framework for discharge uncertainty quantification applied to 500 UK gauging stations

Benchmarking the quality of river discharge data and understanding its information content for hydrological analyses is an important task for hydrologic science. There is a wide variety of techniques to assess discharge uncertainty. However, few studies have developed generalized approaches to quantify discharge uncertainty. This study presents a generalized framework for estimating discharge uncertainty at many gauging stations with different errors in the stage‐discharge relationship. The methodology utilizes a nonparametric LOWESS regression within a novel framework that accounts for uncertainty in the stage‐discharge measurements, scatter in the stage‐discharge data and multisection rating curves. The framework was applied to 500 gauging stations in England and Wales and we evaluated the magnitude of discharge uncertainty at low, mean and high flow points on the rating curve. The framework was shown to be robust, versatile and able to capture place‐specific uncertainties for a number of different examples. Our study revealed a wide range of discharge uncertainties (10–397% discharge uncertainty interval widths), but the majority of the gauging stations (over 80%) had mean and high flow uncertainty intervals of less than 40%. We identified some regional differences in the stage‐discharge relationships, however the results show that local conditions dominated in determining the magnitude of discharge uncertainty at a gauging station. This highlights the importance of estimating discharge uncertainty for each gauging station prior to using those data in hydrological analyses

Thermal performance of two heat exchangers for thermoelectric generators

Thermal performance of heat exchanger is important for potential application in integrated solar cell/module and thermoelectric generator (TEG) system. Usually, thermal performance of a heat exchanger for TEGs is analysed by using a 1D heat conduction theory which ignores the detailed phenomena associated with thermo-hydraulics. In this paper, thermal and mass transports in two different exchangers are simulated by means of a steady-state, 3D turbulent flow k -e model with a heat conduction module under various flow rates. In order to simulate an actual working situation of the heat exchangers, hot block with an electric heater is included in the model. TEG model is simplified by using a 1D heat conduction theory, so its thermal performance is equivalent to a real TEG. Natural convection effect on the outside surfaces of the computational model is considered. Computational models and methods used are validated under transient thermal and electrical experimental conditions of a TEG. It is turned out that the two heat exchangers designed have a better thermal performance compared with an existing heat exchanger for TEGs, and more importantly, the fin heat exchanger is more compact and has nearly half temperature rise compared with the tube heat exchanger

From the stable to the exotic: clustering in light nuclei

A great deal of research work has been undertaken in alpha-clustering study since the pioneering discovery of 12C+12C molecular resonances half a century ago. Our knowledge on physics of nuclear molecules has increased considerably and nuclear clustering remains one of the most fruitful domains of nuclear physics, facing some of the greatest challenges and opportunities in the years ahead. The occurrence of "exotic" shapes in light N=Z alpha-like nuclei is investigated. Various approaches of the superdeformed and hyperdeformed bands associated with quasimolecular resonant structures are presented. Evolution of clustering from stability to the drip-lines is examined: clustering aspects are, in particular, discussed for light exotic nuclei with large neutron excess such as neutron-rich Oxygen isotopes with their complete spectroscopy.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, Presented at the International Symposium on "New Horizons in Fundamental Physics - From Neutrons Nuclei via Superheavy Elements and Supercritical Fields to Neutron Stars and Cosmic Rays" held at Makutsi Safari Farm, South Africa, December 23-29, 2015. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1402.6590, arXiv:1303.0960, arXiv:1408.0684, arXiv:1011.342

X-Ray Scattering Studies of the SiO2_2/Si(001) Interfacial Structure

X‐ray scattering has been utilized in a study of the SiO$_2$/Si(001) interfacial structure. Scattering data provide evidence for a low coverage 2×1 epitaxial structure at the SiO$_2$/Si interface for dry oxides grown on highly ordered Si surfaces at room temperature. The observed scattering is consistent with distorted dimer models of the interfacial structure. Thermal annealing substantially reduces the order of the 2×1 structure while prolonged exposure to humid air almost eliminates the 2×1 symmetry scattering. These findings suggest that the observed 2×1 order is associated with a metastable, intermediate state of the dry oxidation process.Engineering and Applied Science

X‐Ray Reflectivity Studies of SiO2_2/Si(001)

X‐ray reflectivity has been utilized in a study of the SiO$_2$/Si interfacial structure for dry oxides grown at room temperature on highly ordered Si(001) surfaces. Scattering near ($\pm$110) demonstrates the Si lattice termination of the wafers studied is characterized by a highly ordered array of terraces separated by monoatomic steps. Specular reflectivity data indicate the ‘‘native’’ dry oxide thickness is approximately 5 Å with a 1‐Å vacuum interface width. Residual laminar order in the oxide electron density along the oxide/Si interfacial normal decays exponentially from the oxide/Si interface with a $\sim$2.7‐Å decay length.Engineering and Applied Science

No evidence of an 11.16 MeV 2+ state in 12C

An experiment using the 11B(3He,d)12C reaction was performed at iThemba LABS at an incident energy of 44 MeV and analyzed with a high energy-resolution magnetic spectrometer, to re-investigate states in 12C published in 1971. The original investigation reported the existence of an 11.16 MeV state in 12C that displays a 2+ nature. In the present experiment data were acquired at laboratory angles of 25-, 30- and 35- degrees, to be as close to the c.m. angles of the original measurements where the clearest signature of such a state was observed. These new low background measurements revealed no evidence of the previously reported state at 11.16 MeV in 12C

The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed

High-frequency monitoring of nitrogen and phosphorus response in three rural catchments to the end of the 2011–2012 drought in England

This paper uses high-frequency bankside measurements from three catchments selected as part of the UK government-funded Demonstration Test Catchments (DTC) project. We compare the hydrological and hydrochemical patterns during the water year 2011–2012 from the Wylye tributary of the River Avon with mixed land use, the Blackwater tributary of the River Wensum with arable land use and the Newby Beck tributary of the River Eden with grassland land use. The beginning of the hydrological year was unusually dry and all three catchments were in states of drought. A sudden change to a wet summer occurred in April 2012 when a heavy rainfall event affected all three catchments. The year-long time series and the individual storm responses captured by in situ nutrient measurements of nitrate and phosphorus (total phosphorus and total reactive phosphorus) concentrations at each site reveal different pollutant sources and pathways operating in each catchment. Large storm-induced nutrient transfers of nitrogen and or phosphorus to each stream were recorded at all three sites during the late April rainfall event. Hysteresis loops suggested transport-limited delivery of nitrate in the Blackwater and of total phosphorus in the Wylye and Newby Beck, which was thought to be exacerbated by the dry antecedent conditions prior to the storm. The high rate of nutrient transport in each system highlights the scale of the challenges faced by environmental managers when designing mitigation measures to reduce the flux of nutrients to rivers from diffuse agricultural sources. It also highlights the scale of the challenge in adapting to future extreme weather events under a changing climate