A FRAMEWORK FOR UNDERSTANDING CHANGES IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN A FLOWS CONTEXT: AN EXAMINATION NET FLOWS IN THE AUSTRALIAN LABOUR MARKET

In this paper we develop a framework which is appropriate for the systematic investigation of the relationship between net (and gross) flows between different labour market states and movements in the unemployment rate. We use that framework to investigate the behaviour of net flows of persons between employment, unemployment and not in the labour force in Australia between 1979-2003 and the relationship of these flows to changes in the unemployment rate over that period. We find that: flows from unemployment to employment exceed flows from employment to unemployment and that this is the case even in recessions; flows from employment to not in the labour force exceed flows from not in the labour force to employment and that this is the case even in booms, and; flows from not in the labour force to unemployment exceed flows from unemployment to not in the labour force even in recessions. Another important finding is that the reason why the participation rate is negatively correlated with the unemployment rate is because net flows from employment to both unemployment and to not in the labour force are highly correlated. It cannot be explained by flows occurring between unemployment and not in the labour force.Worker Flows Business Cycle Unemployment Participation Rate

AN EMPLOYMENT EQUATION FOR AUSTRALIA: 1966-2001

We model the relationship between hours of work and employment and argue that unless actual hours are varying with a change in ‘standard hours’, actual hours should not appear in the long-run component of an equation for employment. If however standard hours are changing then it is desirable that this variable be incorporated into the employment equation. Our theoretical model yields an expression for the elasticity of employment with respect to standard hours which shows that the elasticity is related to the size of the premium for overtime. Using quarterly data for the period 1966:3 – 2001:3 we estimate a new employment equation for Australia incorporating standard hours of work. We find empirical support for our approach and we provide new estimates of the elasticity of employment with respect to the real wage and GDP. We also find a marked asymmetry in the response of employment to variations in real GDP and real wages in recession periods as against non-recession periods.Employment Determination, Demand for Labor, Australia

Effects of rundown in soil hydraulic condition on crop productivity in south-eastern Queensland - a simulation study

Declining soil organic matter levels because of cropping have been shown to reduce crop growth and yield, but the effects of changing infiltration and soil hydraulic properties on crop productivity have not been widely evaluated. Cropping systems in south-eastern Queensland have, in the past, involved intense tillage, trafficking with heavy machinery, and changed organic matter cycling, affecting soil aggregation, permeability, water-holding characteristics, and organic matter. The aim of this paper is to determine how important infiltration and soil hydraulic condition has been to the water balance, crop growth, and yield in the past, and may be in the future if management is not changed. Change in physical and chemical condition of the 5 most commonly cropped soils in south-east Queensland (Sodosols, Vertosols with ≤55% clay, Vertosols with >55% clay, Red Ferrosols and Red Chromosols/Kandosols) was measured over 0–70 years of cropping and estimated up to 200 years. The APSIM model was used to predict effects of changing soil condition in a rain-fed, fertilised, wheat-summer fallow cropping system with intense tillage. Decline in infiltration, restricted internal redistribution of water, and increased evaporation reduced water supply to the crop, causing simulated yield to decline by 29, 38, 25, 17, and 13% for the 5 soils, respectively, after 50 years of cropping. Gross margin declined at a faster rate, falling by 36, 50, 40, 20, and 21%, respectively after 50 years because of increasing fertiliser requirement to compensate for declining soil fertility. Crop productivity on most soils continued to steadily decline as period of cropping increased to 200 years. To arrest or reverse this downward trend, it is likely that substantial changes to current cropping systems will be needed, including reducing tillage and trafficking, and improving organic matter levels

Simulating infiltration and the water balance in cropping systems with APSIM-SWIM

We test APSIM-SWIM's ability to simulate infiltration and interactions between the soil water balance and grain crop growth using soil hydraulic properties derived from independent, point measurements. APSIMSWIM is a continuous soil-crop model that simulates infiltration, surface crusting, and soil condition in more detail than most other soil-crop models. Runoff, soil water, and crop growth information measured at sites in southern Queensland was used to test the model. Parameter values were derived directly from soil hydraulic properties measured using rainfall simulators, disc permeameters and ponded rings, and pressure plate apparatus. In general, APSIM-SWIM simulated infiltration, runoff, soil water and the water balance, and yield as accurately and reliably as other soil crop models, indicating the model is suitable for evaluating effects of infiltration and soil-water relations on crop growth. Increased model detail did not hinder application, instead improving parameter transferability and utility, but improved methods of characterising crusting, soil hydraulic conductivity, and macroporosity under field conditions would improve ease of application, prediction accuracy, and reliability of the model. Model utility and accuracy would benefit from improved representation of temporal variation in soil condition, including effects of tillage and consolidation on soil condition and bypass flow in cracks

Impact of soil conditions on hydrology and water quality for a brown clay in the north-eastern cereal zone of Australia

Hydrology and water quality impacts of alternative land management practices are poorly quantified for semi-arid environments in the northern Australia cropping zone, yet wide-scale changes in tillage practices and land use were being recommended based on experience from other environments. The objective of this study was to explore changes in soil profile and catchment hydrology and water quality associated with different soil surface conditions created by different tillage and grazing practices. Soil water, runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations were monitored on 4 contour bay catchments over an 18-year period. Soil conditions were described by soil moisture, soil cover, and surface roughness in order to explore functional relationships between management, hydrology, and water quality. The site was chosen to represent the drier margins of cropping in southern Queensland where clay soils with high water-holding capacity, in conjunction with fallowing to store water for later crop growth, are an essential risk management tool. Accumulation of soil water in fallows was inefficient, with fallow efficiencies ranging from 7 to 40% due to high evaporation and runoff losses. Runoff amount was determined by soil water content, which was strongly influenced by antecedent rainfall, water use, and evaporation patterns. Surface cover and roughness had subtle influences on runoff, and a greater effect on suspended sediment concentration. Runoff and suspended sediment losses were considerably lower under pasture than cropping. A participative approach between farmers and scientists was demonstrated to be an efficient method to carry out an extensive and long-term catchment study at a remote location. This study provides benchmark data for future hydrologic and water quality investigations. © CSIRO 2009

"Stopping before you start" : reducing and preventing initiation of tobacco use in the ACT

Tobacco is the leading cause of preventable death in Australia and contributes to 5.4% of disease burden in the Australian Capital Territory. Initiation of tobacco use is most likely to occur during adolescence and young adulthood (at less than 20 years). Prevention of tobacco initiation involves a combination of regulatory, educational and health promotion interventions including restrictions on the sale of tobacco products. This paper reports on the development and use of an agent-based model to explore the impact of modifying three hypothetical regulatory and health promotion interventions: 1) increasing the minimum purchasing age for tobacco products, 2) reducing retail sales of tobacco products to persons under the minimum purchasing age and 3) reducing secondary sharing of tobacco products to persons under the minimum purchasing age using health promotion messaging. The model was built using a participatory approach that engaged policy officers, health promotion officers, epidemiologists, biostatisticians and computer scientists. The structure of the model included interacting state chart representations of smoking and level of concern about tobacco use (engagement status) and a pro-smoking score, which defined the hazard rate of initiation, cessation, and relapse. The pro-smoking score was a function of several risk factors including engagement, social effect of having more or fewer smoking peers, addiction and withdrawal levels and access to tobacco products. Parameterisation of the model drew on a range of data sources with local data being prioritised where it was available. A series of scenarios comparing the impact of the interventions on smoking prevalence rates and age of initiation are reported. Of the three interventions simulated, increasing the minimum purchasing age from 18 to 21 years had the greatest impact on smoking prevalence across the population, reducing the prevalence of smoking from 8.5% (95% CI 7.8, 9.2) to 6.9% (95% CI 6.4, 7.4) five years post-intervention and 4.1% (95% CI 3.8, 4.3) 20 years post intervention (Figure 1). The interventions aimed to reduce the sale of tobacco products to minors and reduce secondary sharing produced small reductions on their own. However, when implemented in combination with increasing the minimum purchasing age, they significantly increased the impact of this intervention from ten years post-implementation, ultimately resulting in a prevalence rate of 2.8% (95% CI 2.6, 3.0) 20 years post-implementation. Given the challenges associated with ceasing tobacco use, these in silico experiments demonstrate the importance of regulatory public health interventions to delay, and therefore potentially prevent initiation

Presenting a comprehensive multi-scale evaluation framework for participatory modelling programs: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION: Systems modelling and simulation can improve understanding of complex systems to support decision making, better managing system challenges. Advances in technology have facilitated accessibility of modelling by diverse stakeholders, allowing them to engage with and contribute to the development of systems models (participatory modelling). However, despite its increasing applications across a range of disciplines, there is a growing need to improve evaluation efforts to effectively report on the quality, importance, and value of participatory modelling. This paper aims to identify and assess evaluation frameworks, criteria, and/or processes, as well as to synthesize the findings into a comprehensive multi-scale framework for participatory modelling programs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A scoping review approach was utilized, which involved a systematic literature search via Scopus in consultation with experts to identify and appraise records that described an evaluation framework, criteria, and/or process in the context of participatory modelling. This scoping review is registered with the Open Science Framework. RESULTS: The review identified 11 studies, which varied in evaluation purposes, terminologies, levels of examination, and time points. The review of studies highlighted areas of overlap and opportunities for further development, which prompted the development of a comprehensive multi-scale evaluation framework to assess participatory modelling programs across disciplines and systems modelling methods. The framework consists of four categories (Feasibility, Value, Change/Action, Sustainability) with 30 evaluation criteria, broken down across project-, individual-, group- and system-level impacts. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: The presented novel framework brings together a significant knowledge base into a flexible, cross-sectoral evaluation effort that considers the whole participatory modelling process. Developed through the rigorous synthesis of multidisciplinary expertise from existing studies, the application of the framework can provide the opportunity to understand practical future implications such as which aspects are particularly important for policy decisions, community learning, and the ongoing improvement of participatory modelling methods

Participatory systems modelling for youth mental health: an evaluation study applying a comprehensive multi-scale framework

The youth mental health sector is persistently challenged by issues such as service fragmentation and inefficient resource allocation. Systems modelling and simulation, particularly utilizing participatory approaches, is offering promise in supporting evidence-informed decision making with limited resources by testing alternative strategies in safe virtual environments before implementing them in the real world. However, improved evaluation efforts are needed to understand the critical elements involved in and to improve methods for implementing participatory modelling for youth mental health system and service delivery. An evaluation protocol is described to evaluate the feasibility, value, impact, and sustainability of participatory systems modelling in delivering advanced decision support capabilities for youth mental health. This study applies a comprehensive multi-scale evaluation framework, drawing on participatory action research principles as well as formative, summative, process, and outcome evaluation techniques. Novel data collection procedures are presented, including online surveys that incorporate gamification to enable social network analysis and patient journey mapping. The evaluation approach also explores the experiences of diverse stakeholders, including young people with lived (or living) experience of mental illness. Social and technical opportunities will be uncovered, as well as challenges implementing these interdisciplinary methods in complex settings to improve youth mental health policy, planning, and outcomes. This study protocol can also be adapted for broader international applications, disciplines, and contexts

Distinct mechanoreceptor pezo-1 isoforms modulate food intake in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans

Two PIEZO mechanosensitive cation channels, PIEZO1 and PIEZO2, have been identified in mammals, where they are involved in numerous sensory processes. While structurally similar, PIEZO channels are expressed in distinct tissues and exhibit unique properties. How different PIEZOs transduce force, how their transduction mechanism varies, and how their unique properties match the functional needs of the tissues they are expressed in remain all-important unanswered questions. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans has a single PIEZO ortholog (pezo-1) predicted to have 12 isoforms. These isoforms share many transmembrane domains but differ in those that distinguish PIEZO1 and PIEZO2 in mammals. We used transcriptional and translational reporters to show that putative promoter sequences immediately upstream of the start codon of long pezo-1 isoforms predominantly drive green fluorescent protein (GFP) expression in mesodermally derived tissues (such as muscle and glands). In contrast, sequences upstream of shorter pezo-1 isoforms resulted in GFP expression primarily in neurons. Putative promoters upstream of different isoforms drove GFP expression in different cells of the same organs of the digestive system. The observed unique pattern of complementary expression suggests that different isoforms could possess distinct functions within these organs. We used mutant analysis to show that pharyngeal muscles and glands require long pezo-1 isoforms to respond appropriately to the presence of food. The number of pezo-1 isoforms in C. elegans, their putative differential pattern of expression, and roles in experimentally tractable processes make this an attractive system to investigate the molecular basis for functional differences between members of the PIEZO family of mechanoreceptors.Fil: Hughes, Kiley. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados UnidosFil: Shah, Ashka. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados UnidosFil: Bai, Xiaofei. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Adams, Jessica. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados UnidosFil: Bauer, Rosemary. University of Chicago; Estados UnidosFil: Jackson, Janelle. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados UnidosFil: Harris, Emily. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados UnidosFil: Ficca, Alyson. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados UnidosFil: Freebairn, Ploy. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados UnidosFil: Mohammed, Shawn. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados UnidosFil: Fernandez, Eliana Mailen. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Instituto de Investigaciones Biotecnológicas. - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Biotecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Bainbridge, Chance. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados UnidosFil: Brocco, Marcela Adriana. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Instituto de Investigaciones Biotecnológicas. - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Biotecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Stein, Wolfgang. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados UnidosFil: Vidal Gadea, Andrés G.. University Of Illinois. Deparment Of Biological Science; Estados Unido