Looking back at 20 years of competitive tendering in the Norwegian bus industry – explaining cost increases and reduced competition

Our paper investigates the developments in the Norwegian bus industry following the ramp-up of competitive tendering since the early 2000s. We analyse a complete dataset of all 232 local bus contracts awarded through competitive tendering in Norway since 1995. We also utilize the Central Register of Establishments and Enterprises (CRE) for structural developments in the bus industry. We first present some overall tendencies, including developments in number of bids per tender, contract size and cost developments. The average cost per kilometre has increased substantially more than the general rate of inflation. At the same time, the average number of bidders per contract has fallen moderately but steadily. Second, we build regression models to identify key drivers of cost developments. Contract sizes, in terms of vehicle-kilometres are found on average to be on the low side and an increase would reduce unit prices. We find as expected a significant effect of the number of bidders on unit prices. This leads us to a further investigation of factors explaining the number of bids per tender. We find that larger contracts tend to attract more bids, as do repeated tenders in the same area.Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies. Faculty of Economics and Business. The University of Sydne

Cycle-network expansion plan in Oslo: Modeling costeffectiveness analysis and health equity impact

Physical inactivity is the leading cause of non-communicable diseases, and further research on the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target inactivity is warranted. Socioeconomic status is vital in this process. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a cycle-network expansion plan in Oslo compared to the status quo by income quintiles. We applied a Markov model using a public payer perspective. Health outcomes were measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the prevention of coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and cancer. We measured equity impact by the concentration index and social welfare using the achievement index. We conducted sensitivity analyses. The intervention was generally more costly and more effective than the status quo. Incremental cost per QALY falls with income quintile, ranging from $10,098 in the richest quintile to$23,053 per QALY gained in the poorest quintile. The base-case intervention increased health inequality. However, a scenario targeting low-income quintiles reduced inequality and increased social welfare. In conclusion, the cycle-network expansion is likely to be cost-effective, but with equity concerns. If decision makers care about health inequalities, the disadvantaged groups could be targeted to produce more equitable and socially desirable outcomes instead of a uniform intervention across income quintiles.publishedVersio

Competition and substitution between public transport modes

The management and understanding of modal split between public transport (PT) modes is of interest for numerous reasons. It may, for example, be desirable to stimulate passengers to switch from crowded buses and over to higher capacity rail. This requires a good understanding of drivers of transit modal substitution. The evidence put forward in this paper is based on more than 150 empirically estimated cross elasticities between PT modes from over 20 sources collected from Australia, Europe and USA. These sources include scientifically published evidence as well as grey literature. This evidence is coded into a database from which our paper presents and analyses the available cross-PT-modal demand relations. We focus on evidence for how fares, travel time and service intervals on PT ‘mode A’ affect the demand for PT ‘mode B’. Despite generally low levels of substitution between PT modes, passengers are particularly sensitive to in-vehicle, access/egress and waiting time in choosing PT mode and less so for fare variations. In general, rail demand is less sensitive to changes in bus than bus demand is to changes in rail. We also find that peak-hour demand more markedly switches between PT modes than off-peak demand does

CO2-komponenten av engangsavgiftens påvirkning på CO2-utslippet fra nye biler i Norge

I denne oppgaven er det foretatt beregninger av hvilke virkninger avgiftsendringer i CO2-komponenten i engangsavgiften på personbiler har på CO2-utslippet fra nye biler i Norge. Dette i lys av endringene i engangsavgiften 1.1.2007 og 1.1.2009. Estimeringene er gjort på bakgrunn av datasettet som er tildelt fra Vista Analyse. Settet inneholder bilkjøp fra og med januar 2006 til og med desember 2008. Det har ikke vært en del av denne oppgaven å innhente nye data for bilkjøp, men kun se på de bilkjøp som er registret i datasettet, med unntak av å hente inn tall for gjennomsnittlig utslipp per bil fra januar 2009 til og med september 2009. Analysene er gjort for å kunne estimere forventede fremtidige utslipp ved ytterligere avgiftsendringer i samme retning som endringene fra 2006 til 2009. Det er kun sett på forventede gjennomsnittlige utslipp per bil. Analyser av antall biler kjøpt er ikke en del av denne undersøkelsen. Vista Analyse sin rapport, Heldal, N., Rasmussen, I., Vivian, A. D. og Strøm, S. (2009) ’Virkninger av kjøpsavgifter og drivstoffavgifter på CO2-utslippet fra nye biler, som videre vil refereres til som ’Rapport Vista Analyse’, har vært utgangspunkt for utarbeidelsen av tre modeller. Disse har blitt brukt til å analysere effekten av avgiftsendringene fra 2006 til 2009 og mulige fremtidige endringer i samme retning. Ut i fra analysene gjort i disse modellene har endringene i engangsavgiften 1.1.2007 og 1.1.2009 mindre betydning for valg av bil enn resultatene i ’Rapport Vista Analyse’ tilsier. Dette fordi ut fra den prisfølsomhet som er målt i denne oppgaven kan avgiftsendringene kun forklare cirka 50% av den totale reduksjonen i utslipp fra 2006 til 2009. Noe som tyder på at andre faktorer har ført til i størrelsesorden like stor reduksjon som endringen i engangsavgiften, for eksempel teknologi fremgang og økt miljøbevissthet. Det er også mulig at forventinger om fremtidige avgiftsendringer påvirker kjøpernes valg ved bilkjøp. Videre viser analyser foretatt at kostnaden av drivstoff er langt lavere enn kjøpskostnaden målt over hele bilens levetid. Gitt at konsumentene er kostnadsminimerende bør derfor samme prosentvise endring i kjøpskostnaden ha større betydning for valg av bil enn drivstoffkostnaden

Modelling the cost of providing ambulance services

The aim of this paper is to study how regional demography and accessibility patterns influence the cost of providing ambulance services. A secondary aim is to project future costs and demand for ambulance services based on population projections. We use data from south-east Norway, an area with both urban and rural areas. Our results show that accessibility patterns, urbanisation and demography are important factors in determining costs. Furthermore, an ageing population and an ongoing process of urbanisation will have an impact on both the demand for ambulance transport and the cost of providing these services

20 years of competitive tendering in the Norwegian bus industry – An analysis of bidders and winning bids

Our paper investigates the developments in the Norwegian bus industry following the ramp-up of competitive tendering since the early 2000s. We analyse a complete dataset of all 232 local bus contracts awarded through competitive tendering in Norway since 1995. We also utilize the Central Register of Establishments and Enterprises (CRE) for structural developments in the bus industry. We first present some overall tendencies, including developments in number of bids per tender, contract size and cost developments. We use the cost implied by the winning bid as our cost indicator. The average cost per kilometre in the winning bid has increased substantially more than the general rate of inflation. At the same time, the average number of bidders per contract has fallen. Second, we build regression models to identify key drivers of cost developments in the bids. Contract sizes, in terms of vehicle-kilometres are found on average to be on the low side and an increase would reduce unit prices. We find as expected a significant effect of the number of bidders on unit prices. This leads us to a further investigation of factors explaining the number of bids per tender. We find that larger contracts tend to attract more bids, as do repeated tenders in the same area

Cycle-network expansion plan in Oslo: Modeling costeffectiveness analysis and health equity impact

Physical inactivity is the leading cause of non-communicable diseases, and further research on the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target inactivity is warranted. Socioeconomic status is vital in this process. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a cycle-network expansion plan in Oslo compared to the status quo by income quintiles. We applied a Markov model using a public payer perspective. Health outcomes were measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the prevention of coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and cancer. We measured equity impact by the concentration index and social welfare using the achievement index. We conducted sensitivity analyses. The intervention was generally more costly and more effective than the status quo. Incremental cost per QALY falls with income quintile, ranging from $10,098 in the richest quintile to$23,053 per QALY gained in the poorest quintile. The base-case intervention increased health inequality. However, a scenario targeting low-income quintiles reduced inequality and increased social welfare. In conclusion, the cycle-network expansion is likely to be cost-effective, but with equity concerns. If decision makers care about health inequalities, the disadvantaged groups could be targeted to produce more equitable and socially desirable outcomes instead of a uniform intervention across income quintiles

Cycle-network expansion plan in Oslo: Modeling cost-effectiveness analysis and health equity impact

Physical inactivity is the leading cause of non-communicable diseases, and further research on the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target inactivity is warranted. Socioeconomic status is vital in this process. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a cycle-network expansion plan in Oslo compared to the status quo by income quintiles. We applied a Markov model using a public payer perspective. Health outcomes were measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the prevention of coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and cancer. We measured equity impact by the concentration index and social welfare using the achievement index. We conducted sensitivity analyses. The intervention was generally more costly and more effective than the status quo. Incremental cost per QALY falls with income quintile, ranging from $10,098 in the richest quintile to$23,053 per QALY gained in the poorest quintile. The base-case intervention increased health inequality. However, a scenario targeting low-income quintiles reduced inequality and increased social welfare. In conclusion, the cycle-network expansion is likely to be cost-effective, but with equity concerns. If decision makers care about health inequalities, the disadvantaged groups could be targeted to produce more equitable and socially desirable outcomes instead of a uniform intervention across income quintiles