How Did Covid-19 Affect the Structural Relationship between Exchange Rates and Money Supply? Evidence from Malawi

For countries that participate in international trade, exchange rate management is crucial as the exchange rate affects the competitiveness of the country in international trade. This affects the country’s balance of payments (BOP) position and economic growth. This paper, therefore, set out to find out how Covid-19 containment measures have affected the Malawi Kwacha-US Dollar exchange rate, as well as money supply. Previous studies have assessed the short-term impacts of Covid-19 on the Malawian economy in general, without considering how they have affected the exchange rate and money supply. This study adds to the literature by analyzing how the Covid-19 containment measures have affected the exchange rate, and consequently, the money supply in Malawi. The study employs the dummy variables approach and the vector error correction (VEC) model to find out if there is a structural change in the exchange rate regression over time and whether that structural change in the exchange rates affects the money supply. Regression results indicate that there is a structural break in the regression over time and that the Malawi Kwacha appreciated following the breakout of the pandemic. Additionally, the results from the Error Correction Model have indicated that the appreciation of the Malawi Kwacha, positively, affected the money supply in Malawi. As a policy implication arising from this study, policymakers are encouraged to take advantage of the prevailing donor goodwill and ensure that the various donations received are put to good use so that the Malawi Kwacha should continue being relatively strong against the United States Dollar. If this is not done, the Malawi Kwacha could, greatly, depreciate, a thing that can make the economy experience inflation thereby making people experience a lot of hardships caused by the Covid-19 pandemic

An unusually long Rift valley fever inter-epizootic period in Zambia : Evidence for enzootic virus circulation and risk for disease outbreak

Rift valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne disease of animals and humans. Although RVF outbreaks are usually reported at 5-15-year intervals in sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia has experienced an unusually long inter-epizootic/-epidemic period of more than three decades. However, serological evidence of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in domestic ruminants during this period underscores the need for comprehensive investigation of the mechanisms of virus perpetuation and disease emergence. Mosquitoes (n = 16,778) captured from eight of the ten provinces of Zambia between April 2014 and May 2019 were pooled (n = 961) and screened for RVFV genome by a pan-phlebo RT-PCR assay. Aedes mosquito pools (n = 85) were further screened by nested RT-PCR assay. Sera from sheep (n = 13), goats (n = 259) and wild ungulates (n = 285) were screened for RVFV antibodies by ELISA while genome detection in pooled sera (n = 276) from domestic (n = 248) and wild ungulates (n = 37) was performed by real-time RT-PCR assay. To examine the association between the long inter-epizootic period and climatic variables, we examined El Nino-Southern Oscillation indices, precipitation anomalies, and normalized difference vegetation index. We then derived RVF risk maps by exploring climatic variables that would favor emergence of primary RVFV vectors. While no RVFV genome could be detected in pooled mosquito and serum samples, seroprevalence was significantly high (OR = 8.13, 95% CI [4.63-14.25]) in wild ungulates (33.7%; 96/285) compared to domestic ruminants (5.6%; 16/272). Retrospective analysis of RVF epizootics in Zambia showed a positive correlation between anomalous precipitation (La Nina) and disease emergence. On risk mapping, whilst northern and eastern parts of the country were at high risk, domestic ruminant population density was low (21 animals/km(2)). Besides evidence of silent circulation of RVFV and the risk of disease emergence in some areas, wildlife may play a role in the maintenance of RVFV in Zambia

Enhanced infection prophylaxis reduces mortality in severely immunosuppressed HIV-infected adults and older children initiating antiretroviral therapy in Kenya, Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe: the REALITY trial

Meeting abstract FRAB0101LB from 21st International AIDS Conference 18–22 July 2016, Durban, South Africa. Introduction: Mortality from infections is high in the first 6 months of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among HIV‐infected adults and children with advanced disease in sub‐Saharan Africa. Whether an enhanced package of infection prophylaxis at ART initiation would reduce mortality is unknown. Methods: The REALITY 2×2×2 factorial open‐label trial (ISRCTN43622374) randomized ART‐naïve HIV‐infected adults and children >5 years with CD4 <100 cells/mm3. This randomization compared initiating ART with enhanced prophylaxis (continuous cotrimoxazole plus 12 weeks isoniazid/pyridoxine (anti‐tuberculosis) and fluconazole (anti‐cryptococcal/candida), 5 days azithromycin (anti‐bacterial/protozoal) and single‐dose albendazole (anti‐helminth)), versus standard‐of‐care cotrimoxazole. Isoniazid/pyridoxine/cotrimoxazole was formulated as a scored fixed‐dose combination. Two other randomizations investigated 12‐week adjunctive raltegravir or supplementary food. The primary endpoint was 24‐week mortality. Results: 1805 eligible adults (n = 1733; 96.0%) and children/adolescents (n = 72; 4.0%) (median 36 years; 53.2% male) were randomized to enhanced (n = 906) or standard prophylaxis (n = 899) and followed for 48 weeks (3.8% loss‐to‐follow‐up). Median baseline CD4 was 36 cells/mm3 (IQR: 16–62) but 47.3% were WHO Stage 1/2. 80 (8.9%) enhanced versus 108(12.2%) standard prophylaxis died before 24 weeks (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.73 (95% CI: 0.54–0.97) p = 0.03; Figure 1) and 98(11.0%) versus 127(14.4%) respectively died before 48 weeks (aHR = 0.75 (0.58–0.98) p = 0.04), with no evidence of interaction with the two other randomizations (p > 0.8). Enhanced prophylaxis significantly reduced incidence of tuberculosis (p = 0.02), cryptococcal disease (p = 0.01), oral/oesophageal candidiasis (p = 0.02), deaths of unknown cause (p = 0.02) and (marginally) hospitalisations (p = 0.06) but not presumed severe bacterial infections (p = 0.38). Serious and grade 4 adverse events were marginally less common with enhanced prophylaxis (p = 0.06). CD4 increases and VL suppression were similar between groups (p > 0.2). Conclusions: Enhanced infection prophylaxis at ART initiation reduces early mortality by 25% among HIV‐infected adults and children with advanced disease. The pill burden did not adversely affect VL suppression. Policy makers should consider adopting and implementing this low‐cost broad infection prevention package which could save 3.3 lives for every 100 individuals treated