Mediterranean Forecasting System: manuale delle procedure operative del sistema di produzione delle previsioni

Dal 2000 il gruppo di oceanografia operativa dell’INGV ha sviluppato e mantenuto un sistema di previsioni marine per il Mar Mediterraneo (Mediterranean Forecasting System - MFS). Il sistema èstato sviluppato grazie a differenti progetti europei che si sono succeduti a partire dal 1999 ad oggi quali MFSPP (Mediterranan ocen Forecasting System Pilot Project), MFSTEP (Mediterranan ocen Forecasting System Toward Environmental Predictions), MERSEA (Marine EnviRonmnet and Security for the European Area) and BOSS4GMES (Building Operational Sustainable services for GMES). Il sistema produce previsioni oceanografiche a breve termine (dieci giorni) per i campi di temperatura, salinità, corrente ed elevazione della superficie libera del mare. Nella fase iniziale di sviluppo del sistema di previsione il ciclo di produzione era settimanale (Pinardi et al. 2003), da settembre 2005 invece il sistema è giornaliero, cioè ogni giorno vengono prodotte le previsioni per i successivi dieci giorni. L’intero sistema previsionale MFS sfrutta come risorse di calcolo i 2 super calcolatori vettoriali NEC in dotazione al Gruppo di Oceanografia Operativa dell’INGV di Bologna. Le procedure girano in parallelo sulle due macchine, una in modalità operativa e l’altra in modalità backup in modo da garantire la produzione anche in caso di eventuali malfunzionamenti di uno dei due calcolatori. Tutte le procedure funzionano in maniera completamente automatica e l’intervento dell’operatore è necessario solo in caso di problemi e/o malfunzionamenti. Scopo di questo manuale è quello di fornire un’utile guida alla comprensione dei vari anelli che costituiscono la catena di produzione della previsioni giornaliere a scala di bacino del Mar Mediterraneo

European Marine Core Service Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (MFC): manuale d'uso del Mediterranean Forecasting System (Med-MFC-currents)

Dal 2000 il gruppo di oceanografia operativa dell’INGV ha sviluppato e mantenuto un sistema di previsioni marine per il Mar Mediterraneo (Mediterranean Forecasting System - MFS). Il sistema è stato sviluppato grazie a differenti progetti europei che si sono succeduti a partire dal 1999 ad oggi quali MFSPP (Mediterranan ocean Forecasting System Pilot Project), MFSTEP (Mediterranan ocean Forecasting System Toward Environmental Predictions), MERSEA (Marine EnviRonmnet and Security for the European Area) , BOSS4GMES (Building Operational Sustainable services for GMES) e MyOcean. Il sistema produce previsioni oceanografiche a breve termine (dieci giorni) per i campi di temperatura, salinità, corrente ed elevazione della superficie libera del mare. Nella fase iniziale di sviluppo del sistema di previsione il ciclo di produzione era settimanale (Pinardi et al. 2003), da settembre 2005 invece il sistema è giornaliero, cioè ogni giorno vengono prodotte le previsioni per i successivi dieci giorni. (Tonani et al. 2008, Dombrowsky et. al 2009). L’intero sistema previsionale MFS sfrutta come risorse di calcolo i super calcolatori vettoriali NEC in dotazione al Gruppo di Oceanografia Operativa dell’INGV di Bologna. Le procedure girano eventualmente in parallelo sulle due macchine, una in modalità operativa e l’altra in modalità backup in modo da garantire la produzione anche in caso di eventuali malfunzionamenti di uno dei due calcolatori. I prodotti vengono disseminati tramite un server ftp (mfs.bo.ingv.it) e thredds. Tutte le procedure funzionano in maniera completamente automatica e l’intervento dell’operatore è necessario solo in caso di problemi e/o malfunzionamenti. Scopo di questo manuale è quello di fornire un’utile guida alla comprensione dei vari anelli che costituiscono la catena di produzione della previsioni giornaliere a scala di bacino del Mar Mediterraneo e la disseminazione dei suoi prodotti verso l’esterno. Questo manuale e’ una versione aggiornata e ampliata del Rapporto Tecnico 83 del 2008

Evaluation of Amip-Type Atmospheric Fields as Forcing For Mediterranean Sea and Global Ocean Reanalyses

Oceanic reanalyses are powerful products to reconstruct the historical 3D-state of the ocean and related circulation. At present a challenge is to have oceanic reanalyses covering the whole 20th century. This study describes the exercise of comparing available datasets to force Mediterranean Sea and global oceanic reanalyses from 1901 to present. In particular, we compared available atmospheric reanalyses with a set of experiments performed with an atmospheric general circulation model where sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concen- tration are prescribed. These types of experiments have the advantage of covering long time records, at least for the period for which global SST is available, and they can be performed at relatively high horizontal resolutions, a very important requisite for regional oceanic re- analyses. However, they are limited by the intrinsic model biases in representing the mean atmospheric state and its variability. In this study, we show that, within some limits, the atmospheric model performance in representing the basic variables needed for the bulk-formulae to force oceanic data assimilation systems can be comparable to the differences among available atmospheric reanalyses. In the case of the Mediterranean Sea the high horizontal resolution of the set of SST-prescribed experiments combined with their good performance in rep- resenting the surface winds in the area made them the most appropriate atmospheric forcing. On the other hand, in the case of the global ocean, atmospheric reanalyses have been proven to be still preferable due to the better representation of spatial and temporal variability of surface winds and radiative fluxes. Because of their intrinsic limitations AMIP experiments cannot provide atmospheric fields alterna- tive to atmospheric reanalyses. Nevertheless, here we show how in the specific case of the Mediterranean Sea, they can be of use, if not preferable, to available atmospheric reanalyses

MyOcean Scientific Validation Report (ScVR) for WP9 – Med-MFC

This report was written for MyOcean ProjectPublished4.6. Oceanografia operativa per la valutazione dei rischi in aree marinereserve

Mediterranean Sea large-scale low-frequency ocean variability and water mass formation rates from 1987 to 2007: A retrospective analysis

We describe a synthesis of the Mediterranean Sea circulation structure and dynamics from a 23-year- long reanalysis of the ocean circulation carried out by Adani et al. (2011). This mesoscale permitting dynamical reconstruction of past ocean variability in the Mediterranean Sea allows the study of the time-mean circulation and its low frequency, decadal, components. It is found that the time-mean circu- lation is composed of boundary and open ocean intensified jets at the border of cyclonic and anticyclonic gyres. The large scale basin circulation is generally characterized in the northern regions by cyclonic gyres and in its southern parts by anticyclonic gyres and eddy-dominated flow fields, with the exception of the Tyrrhenian and the northern Ionian Sea. The time-mean Tyrrhenian Sea circulation is dominated by cyclonic gyres of different intensity and intermittency. The northern Ionian Sea circulation, however, reverses in sign in two ten-year periods, the first in 1987–1996 and the second in 1997–2006, which is here called the Northern Ionian reversal phenomenon. This reversal is provoked by the excursion of the Atlantic-Ionian Stream from the middle to the northern parts of the basin. The decadal variability of other parts of the basin is characterized by changes in strength of the basin scale structures. The water mass formation rates and variability are dominated by event-like periods where the intermediate and deep waters are formed for 2–3 years at higher rates. The largest deep water formation events of the past 23 years occurred separately in the western and eastern Mediterranean basin: the first coincided with the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (Roether et al., 1996) and the second with the western Mediterranean deep water formation event in 2005–2006 (Smith et al., 2008). A new schematic of the basin-scale circu- lation is formulated and commented.Published318-3324A. Oceanografia e climaJCR Journa

Last improvements in the data assimilation scheme for the Mediterranean Analysis and Forecast system of the Copernicus Marine Service

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is a numerical ocean prediction system that produces analyses, reanalyses and short term forecasts for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. The system is now part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) providing regular and systematic information about the physical state and dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea through the Med-MFC (Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center). MFS has been implemented in the Mediterranean Sea with 1/16o horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels and is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 2-way online coupled with the third generation wave model WaveWatchIII (Clementi et al., 2017a) and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields at 1/8° horizontal resolution. The model solutions are corrected by the data assimilation system (3D variational scheme, Dobricic and Pinardi, 2008) with a daily assimilation cycle of along track satellite Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) and vertical profiles of Temperature and Salinity from ARGO and gliders. In this study we present a new estimate of the background error covariance matrix with vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) that are defined at each grid point of the model domain in order to better account for the error covariance between temperature and salinity in the shelf and open ocean areas. Moreover the Observational error covariance matrix is z-dependent and varies in each month. This new dataset has been tested and validated for more than 2 years against a background error correlation matrix varying only seasonally and in thirteen sub-regions of the Mediterranean Sea (Dobricic et al. 2005).PublishedBergen, Norway3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ

Last improvements in the data assimilation scheme for the Mediterranean Analysis and Forecast system of the Copernicus Marine Service

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is a numerical ocean prediction system that produces analyses, reanalyses and short term forecasts for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. The system is now part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) providing regular and systematic information about the physical state and dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea through the Med-MFC (Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center). MFS has been implemented in the Mediterranean Sea with 1/16o horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels and is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 2-way online coupled with the third generation wave model WW3 (WaveWatchIII) and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields at 1/8o horizontal resolution. The model solutions are corrected by the data assimilation system (3D variational-3Dvar scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem, Dobricic and Pinardi, 2008) with a daily assimilation cycle of satellite Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) and vertical profiles of Temperature and Salinity. In this study we present a new estimate the of the background error covariance matrix with vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) that are defined at each grid point of the model domain in order to better account for the error covariance between temperature and salinity in the shelf and open ocean areas. Moreover the Error covariance matrix is z-dependent and varies in each month. This new dataset has been tested and validated for more than 2 years against a background error correlation matrix varying only seasonally and in thirteen sub-regions of the Mediterranean Sea. Latest developments include the implementation of an upgraded 3Dvar (Storto et al. 2012) for a high-resolution model, 1/24o in the horizontal and 141 vertical levelsPublishedBergen, Norway3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ

Marine climate change and environmental indicators from the Marine Core Service

In the framework of the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network (MOON, http://www.moon-oceanforecasting.eu) The Mediterranean Forecasting System (Pinardi et al., 2003) has started the design and development of services that include the routine production of environmental and climate indicators. A process of identifying user requirements has been started in collaboration with European Environment Agency and the indicators definition and implementation aim to take user requirements into account. The indicators are extensively used by EEA (EEA web page on indicators: http://themes.eea.europa.eu/indicators/). INGV has carried out an analysis on the possible improvements of existing indicators in use by EEA and on the development of new indicators based on Marine Core Services (MCS) products. The list of indicators includes: Temperature, Chlorophyll-a (from ocean colour), Ocean Currents and Transport, Salinity, Transparency, Sea Level, Sea Ice and Density. A critical analysis has been carried out to identify the relevance of the above-mentioned indicators for EU policies, their spatial and temporal coverage, their accuracy and their availability (Coppini et al., 2008). INGV in collaboration with CNR-ISAC are directly involved on the development of the indicators in the Mediterranean region and European Seas region the Temperature and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) products are the most suitable for an indicator development test phase. In particular the OO Chl-a product, deduced from satellite data, is able to contribute to the further development of the EEA Chl-a indicator on eutrohpication that is based on in-situ measurements (CSI023). For this indicator a development phase has been undertaken in 2008 and 2009 within the European Topic Center for Water (ETC-W) for EEA. The temperature indicators, developed with the support of MyOcean and Operational Oceanography community, consist of long time series (1870-Today) of SST anomaly able to describe ocean temperature increase due to climate change in the European Seas and on SST trends map of the last 25 years for the European Seas. These last two indicators have been included in the last 2008 EEA report on Impacts of Climate change in the European Seas (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4). Moreover MFS re-analysis have been produced for the Mediterranean Sea and it consists of daily output of MFS-OPA hydrodinamic model (1/16 of degree horizontal resolution) that assimilates all available in situ and satellite observation for 1985 to 2007. This reanalysis product is used to detect temperature anomalies over the last 20 years in the coastal zone that could be related with environmental stresses. In addition to that we have also identified a Density indicator that appears relevant for the ecosystem health assessment in the coastal waters.PublishedBerlin, Germany3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceanoope

A 1/24 degree resolution Mediterranean analysis and forecast modeling system for the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is a numerical ocean prediction system that operationally produces analyses, reanalyses and short-term forecasts of the main physical parameters for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. This work is specifically focused on the description and evaluation of the analysis and forecast modeling system that covers the analysis of the current situation and produces daily updates of the following 10 days forecast. The system has been recently upgraded in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) by increasing the grid resolution from 1/16o to 1/24o in the horizontal and from 72 to 141 vertical levels, by increasing the number of fresh water river inputs and by updating the data assimilation scheme. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. In order to validate the modeling system and to estimate the accuracy of the model products, a quality assessment is regularly performed including both pre-operational qualification and near real time (NRT) validation procedures. Pre-operational qualification activities focus on testing the improvements of the quality of the new system with respect to the previous version and relies on past simulation and historical data, while NRT validation activities aim at routinely and on-line providing the skill assessment of the model analysis and forecasts and relies on the NRT available observations. The focus of this work is to present the new operational modeling system and the skill assessment including comparison with independent (insitu coastal moorings) and quasi-independent (insitu vertical profiles and satellite) datasets.PublishedBergen, Norway3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ

A 1/24° resolution Mediterranean physical analysis and forecasting system for the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service

This study describes a new model implementation for the Mediterranean Sea that has been achieved in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The numerical ocean prediction system, that operationally produces analyses and forecasts of the main physical parameters for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas, has been upgraded by increasing the grid resolution from 1/16o to 1/24o in the horizontal and from 72 to 141 unevenly spaced vertical levels, by increasing the number of fresh water river inputs and by updating the data assimilation scheme. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the airsea interface. The focus of this work is to present the new modelling system which will become operational in the near future and the validation assessment including the comparison with an independent non assimilated dataset (coastal moorings) and quasi-independent (in situ vertical profiles and satellite) datasets. The results show that the higher resolution model is capable of representing most of the variability of the general circulation in the Mediterranean Sea, however some improvements need to be implemented in order to enhance the model ability in reproducing specific hydrodynamic features particularly the Sea Level Anomaly.PublishedBergen, Norway3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ