Past changes in the North Atlantic storm track driven by insolation and sea-ice forcing

Changes in the location of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks may cause significant societal and economic impacts under future climate change, but projections of future changes are highly uncertain and drivers of long-term changes are poorly understood. Here we develop a late Holocene storminess reconstruction from northwest Spain and combine this with an equivalent record from the Outer Hebrides, Scotland, to measure changes in the dominant latitudinal position of the storm track. The north-south index shows that storm tracks moved from a southern position to higher latitudes over the past 4000 yr, likely driven by a change from meridional to zonal atmospheric circulation, associated with a negative to positive North Atlantic Oscillation shift. We suggest that gradual polar cooling (caused by decreasing solar insolation in summer and amplified by sea-ice feedbacks) and mid-latitude warming (caused by increasing winter insolation) drove a steepening of the winter latitudinal temperature gradient through the late Holocene, resulting in the observed change to a more northern winter storm track. Our findings provide paleoclimate support for observational and modeling studies that link changes in the latitudinal temperature gradient and sea-ice extent to the strength and shape of the circumpolar vortex. Together this evidence now suggests that North Atlantic winter storm tracks may shift southward under future warming as sea-ice extent decreases and the mid- to high-latitude temperature gradient decreases, with storms increasingly affecting southern Europe

Combining biodiversity resurveys across regions to advance global change research

More and more ecologists have started to resurvey communities sampled in earlier decades to determine long-term shifts in community composition and infer the likely drivers of the ecological changes observed. However, to assess the relative importance of and interactions among multiple drivers, joint analyses of resurvey data from many regions spanning large environmental gradients are needed. In this article, we illustrate how combining resurvey data from multiple regions can increase the likelihood of driver orthogonality within the design and show that repeatedly surveying across multiple regions provides higher representativeness and comprehensiveness, allowing us to answer more completely a broader range of questions. We provide general guidelines to aid the implementation of multiregion resurvey databases. In so doing, we aim to encourage resurvey database development across other community types and biomes to advance global environmental change research

Regional variability in peatland burning at mid- to high-latitudes during the Holocene

Acknowledgements This work developed from the PAGES (Past Global Changes) C-PEAT (Carbon in Peat on EArth through Time) working group. PAGES has been supported by the US National Science Foundation, Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Sciences. We acknowledge the following financial support: UK Natural Environment Research Council Training Grants NE/L002574/1 (T.G.S.) and NE/S007458/1 (R.E.F.); Dutch Foundation for the Conservation of Irish Bogs, Quaternary Research Association and Leverhulme Trust RPG-2021-354 (G.T.S); the Academy of Finland (M.V); PAI/SIA 80002 and FONDECYT Iniciación 11220705 - ANID, Chile (C.A.M.); R20F0002 (PATSER) ANID Chile (R.D.M.); Swedish Strategic Research Area (SRA) MERGE (ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system) (M.J.G.); Polish National Science Centre Grant number NCN 2018/29/B/ST10/00120 (K.A.); Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 19-14-00102 (Y.A.M.); University of Latvia Grant No. AAp2016/B041/Zd2016/AZ03 and the Estonian Science Council grant PRG323 (TrackLag) (N.S. and A.M.); U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Science/Climate Research & Development Program (M.J., L.A., and D.W.); German Research Foundation (DFG), grant MA 8083/2-1 (P.M.) and grant BL 563/19-1 (K.H.K.); German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), grant no. 57044554, Faculty of Geosciences, University of Münster, and Bavarian University Centre for Latin America (BAYLAT) (K.H.K). Records from the Global Charcoal Database supplemented this work and therefore we would like to thank the contributors and managers of this open-source resource. We also thank Annica Greisman, Jennifer Shiller, Fredrik Olsson and Simon van Bellen for contributing charcoal data to our analyses. Any use of trade, firm, or product name is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Peer reviewedPostprin

Palaeoecological records as a guide for fire management in Killarney National Park, Ireland

Climate change is allowing fire to expand into previously unburnt ecosystems and regions. While management policies such as fire suppression have significantly altered their frequency and intensity. To prevent future biodiversity/ecosystem services loss, and the large financial burden of wildfires, management plans will be required to adapt to future climate and land use changes. Long-term ecological data offer a unique perspective to assess fire variability under different climate and land-use conditions. In this study, we focus on Killarney National Park, Ireland. An area which today is under threat from an increase in fire activity. Comparing palaeoecological and archaeological records, we reconstruct the past fire dynamic and its impact on the landscape, and evaluate the role of climate vs humans in influencing the natural fire regime over the millennial time-scale. Our results indicate that fire has been present in the landscape since the beginning of the Holocene, with fire in the early Holocene being largely controlled by climate and microsite conditions, and in the late Holocene being increasingly influenced by human activity. The knowledge of past fire regimes can help inform future management in order to protect the semi-natural native woodland. The park's present landscape mosaic, could be preserved by limiting forest encroachment through moderate grazing and burning, while also protecting any fragmented forest from excessive grazing and large/intense fires, via traditional fire management strategies such as fuel load management. However, a fire management strategy should only be implemented following careful consideration of all ecosystem factors and controls

Chapter 20 - Peat Fires in Ireland

Peatlands are one of Ireland's most characteristic natural features, making up about 17% of the Irish landscape. Their formation began at the end of the last glaciation (about 11,700years ago) and was initially confined to shallow lakes and wet hollows. However, over time there was a transition from open water to fen and then acid ombrotrophic raised bogs. Blanket bog also spread over extensive areas of poorly drained land in the uplands and western seaboard. This spread may have taken place in areas as early as 7000years ago but was more widespread by 4000years ago when the climate may have become wetter. Ireland's peatlands have been exploited for fuel over the last 400years, reducing the original extent of the peatland by almost 47%

Chapter 20 - Peat Fires in Ireland

Peatlands are one of Ireland's most characteristic natural features, making up about 17% of the Irish landscape. Their formation began at the end of the last glaciation (about 11,700years ago) and was initially confined to shallow lakes and wet hollows. However, over time there was a transition from open water to fen and then acid ombrotrophic raised bogs. Blanket bog also spread over extensive areas of poorly drained land in the uplands and western seaboard. This spread may have taken place in areas as early as 7000years ago but was more widespread by 4000years ago when the climate may have become wetter. Ireland's peatlands have been exploited for fuel over the last 400years, reducing the original extent of the peatland by almost 47%