Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States

Volcanic ash fall events identified using principal component analysis of a high-resolution speleothem trace element dataset

Large multivariate trace element datasets produced by LA-ICP-MS speleothem analysis can pose difficulties for analysis and interpretation. Processes acting on various timescales and magnitudes affect trace element concentrations, and deconvolving the most important controls is often complex. Here Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to identify the modes and timings of variation which best explain the overall variability in an exceptionally high-resolution (10 μm vertical resolution) multivariate trace element record produced by LA-ICP-MS from a modern (1979–2001) Belizean stalagmite with excellent age control. Principal Component 1 (PC1) in this dataset is defined by a weak correlation between multiple elements, and may reflect non-carbonate material incorporated within the speleothem. Elevated PC1 scores in ATM-7 occur following regional volcanic eruptions with ash clouds extending over the cave site, as demonstrated using NASA remote sensing data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and HYSPLIT trajectory modelling. Spikes in PC1 occur at the beginning of the wet season, and this may reflect a seasonal flushing event that transports volcanogenic material through the karst and incorporates it within the speleothem. Our results suggest that PCA can simplify exploration of large laser ablation datasets, and that PCA is a valuable tool for identifying the dominant controls on stalagmite trace element chemistry. Future studies should evaluate how transferable this technique is to other sites with different environmental conditions where volcanic ashfall has occurred. This research potentially adds tephrochronology to the stalagmite dating toolkit or, conversely, opens the door to using stalagmites to identify previously unknown or uncertainly dated eruptions

The DNA segregation mechanism of Epstein–Barr virus nuclear antigen 1

Latent Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) genomes are maintained in human cells as low copy number episomes that are thought to be partitioned by attachment to the cellular mitotic chromosomes through the viral EBNA1 protein. We have identified a human protein, EBP2, which interacts with the EBNA1 sequences that govern EBV partitioning. Here we show that, in mitosis, EBP2 localizes to the condensed cellular chromosomes producing a staining pattern that is indistinguishable from that of EBNA1. The localization of EBNA1 proteins with mutations in the EBP2 binding region was also examined. An EBNA1 mutant (Δ325–376) disrupted for EBP2 binding and segregation function was nuclear but failed to attach to the cellular chromosomes in mitosis. Our results indicate that amino acids 325–376 mediate the binding of EBNA1 to mitotic chromosomes and strongly suggest that EBNA1 mediates EBV segregation by attaching to EBP2 on the cellular mitotic chromosomes