Flexible reaction norms to environmental variables along the migration route and the significance of stopover duration for total speed of migration in a songbird migrant

Background Predicting the consequences of continuing anthropogenic changes in the environment for migratory behaviours such as phenology remains a major challenge. Predictions remain particularly difficult, because our knowledge is based on studies from single-snapshot observations at specific stopover sites along birds’ migration routes. However, a general understanding on how birds react to prevailing environmental conditions, e.g. their ‘phenotypic reaction norm’, throughout the annual cycle and along their entire migration routes is required to fully understand how migratory birds respond to rapid environmental change. Results Here, we provide direct evidence that northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) from a breeding population in Alaska adjusted their probability to resume migration as well as the distance covered per night, i.e. travel speed, to large-scale environmental conditions experienced along their 15,000 km migratory route on both northwards and southwards migrations. These adjustments were found to be flexible in space and time. At the beginning of autumn migration, northern wheatears showed high departure probabilities and high travel speeds at low surface air temperatures, while far away from Alaska both traits decreased with increasing air temperatures. In spring, northern wheatears increasingly exploited flow assistance with season, which is likely a behavioural adjustment to speed up migration by increasing the distance travelled per night. Furthermore, the variation in total stopover duration but not in travel speed had a significant effect on the total speed of migration, indicating the prime importance of total stopover duration in the overall phenology of bird migration. Conclusion Northern wheatears from Alaska provide evidence that the phenotypic reaction norm to a set of environmental conditions cannot be generalized to universal and persistent behavioural reaction pattern across entire migratory pathways. This highlights the importance of full annual-cycle studies on migratory birds to better understand their response to the environment. Understanding the mechanisms behind phenotypic plasticity during migration is particularly important in the assessment of whether birds can keep pace with the potentially increasing phenological mismatches observed on the breeding grounds

Diastereoselektive Synthesen funktionalisierter 1-Azabicyclo[3.2.2]nonane : mechanische Konzepte zur zweiten Cinchona Umlagerung und Homologisierung an C9 der [beta]-Aminoalkohole Quincorin und Quincoridin

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Future development of soil chemical parameters on formerly emission affected forest sites

Die vorliegende Arbeit stellt Prognosen zur Entwicklung verschiedener bodenchemischer Parameter (pH-Wert, Nährelementvorräte und Schwermetallgehalte) für flugaschebeeinflusste Waldböden der Dübener Heide vor. Untersucht wurden dazu zwölf Waldstandorte mit unterschiedlicher Entfernung vom Hauptemittenten und damit entlang eines Depositionsgradienten basischer, schwermetallhaltiger Flugasche. Aus der Kombination von vorhandenen Altdaten, dem gemessenen Ist-Zustand und den Ergebnissen von Freisetzungsversuchen wurden Modelle für zukünftig zu erwartende pH-Werte und Elementgehalte der Auflagen abgeleitet. Entsprechend dieser Modelle wird der am stärksten beeinflusste Standort Burgkemnitz voraussichtlich noch mindestens 100 Jahre über aufgebaste Auflagen verfügen, die sich durch überdurchschnittlich hohe Calcium- und Magnesiumvorräte auszeichnen, was als positiv für die Pflanzenernährung zu bewerten ist. Die Schwermetallgesamtgehalte von Cadmium, Kupfer, Nickel und Zink in den Auflagen dieses Standortes überschreiten zwar heute schon die Vorsorgewerte der BBodSchV. Aufgrund des hohen pH-Wertes sind zur Zeit die mobilen Gehalte aber noch so gering, dass sich daraus keine Gefährdung für Pflanzen und Mikroorganismen ergibt. Die mobilen Schwermetallgehalte von Nickel und Zink werden zwar aufgrund stetiger Wiederversauerung in den nächsten Jahrzehnten die Prüfwerte von Prüess (1994) überschreiten. Mit einem hohen Schädigungspotenzial ist allerdings nicht zu rechnen. Das durch die Flugasche verbesserte Nährstoffangebot könnte hier also noch langfristig waldbaulich genutzt werden. Schlüsselwörter: Flugasche, Waldboden, Dübener Heide, Freisetzung, Schwermetalle, Calcium, MagnesiumThis paper presents scenarios for the future development of selected soilchemical parameters (pH-value, nutrient stocks and heavy metal contents) on fly ash affected forest soils of the Dübener Heide. Twelve forest sites were examined, having different distances from the main emitter and thus lying along a deposition gradient of basic fly ash containing heavy metals. Models were developed for the future development of pH-values and element contents using literature data and actual measurements as well as leaching experiments. According to these model results the most affected site Burgkemnitz will be characterized by superior stocks of calcium and magnesium for duration of the next 100 years. In the organic horizons of this site the contents of cadmium, copper, nickel and zinc exceed the threshold values of the BBodSchV (German Federal Soil Protection and Contaminated Sites Ordinance) presently. But due to high pH-values the mobile contents of these heavy metals are low enough so that currently a risk of damage to plants or microorganisms can not be deduced. Because of continuous acidification the mobile contents of nickel and zinc will exceed the trigger values (Prüess 1994) in the next decades. But a high damage is not to be expected. Thus forest management could make use of the improved nutrition conditions at this site on a long-term time scale. Keywords: fly ash, forest soil, Dübener Heide, leaching, heavy metal, calcium, magnesiu

Robust group sequential designs for trials with survival endpoints and delayed response

Randomized clinical trials in oncology typically utilize time-to-event endpoints such as progression-free survival or overall survival as their primary efficacy endpoints, and the most commonly used statistical test to analyze these endpoints is the log-rank test. The power of the log-rank test depends on the behavior of the hazard ratio of the treatment arm to the control arm. Under the assumption of proportional hazards, the log-rank test is asymptotically fully efficient. However, this proportionality assumption does not hold true if there is a delayed treatment effect. Cancer immunology has evolved over time and several cancer vaccines are available in the market for treating existing cancers. This includes sipuleucel-T for metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer, nivolumab for metastatic melanoma, and pembrolizumab for advanced nonsmall-cell lung cancer. As cancer vaccines require some time to elicit an immune response, a delayed treatment effect is observed, resulting in a violation of the proportional hazards assumption. Thus, the traditional log-rank test may not be optimal for testing immuno-oncology drugs in randomized clinical trials. Moreover, the new immuno-oncology compounds have been shown to be very effective in prolonging overall survival. Therefore, it is desirable to implement a group sequential design with the possibility of early stopping for overwhelming efficacy. In this paper, we investigate the max-combo test, which utilizes the maximum of two weighted log-rank statistics, as a robust alternative to the log-rank test. The new test is implemented for two-stage designs with possible early stopping at the interim analysis time point. Two classes of weights are investigated for the max-combo test: the Fleming and Harrington (1981) (Formula presented.) weights and the Magirr and Burman (2019) modest (Formula presented.) weights.</p

Fluctuation Dissipation Ratio in Three-Dimensional Spin Glasses

We present an analysis of the data on aging in the three-dimensional Edwards Anderson spin glass model with nearest neighbor interactions, which is well suited for the comparison with a recently developed dynamical mean field theory. We measure the parameter $x(q)$ describing the violation of the relation among correlation and response function implied by the fluctuation dissipation theorem.Comment: LaTeX 10 pages + 4 figures (appended as uuencoded compressed tar-file), THP81-9

Occipital transcranial direct current stimulation in episodic migraine patients: effect on cerebral perfusion

Cerebral blood flow differs between migraine patients and healthy controls during attack and the interictal period. This study compares the brain perfusion of episodic migraine patients and healthy controls and investigates the influence of anodal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) over the occipital cortex. We included healthy adult controls and episodic migraineurs. After a 28-day baseline period and the baseline visit, migraine patients received daily active or sham anodal tDCS over the occipital lobe for 28 days. All participants underwent a MRI scan at baseline; migraineurs were also scanned shortly after the stimulation period and about five months later. At baseline, brain perfusion of migraine patients and controls differed in several areas; among the stimulated areas, perfusion was increased in the cuneus of healthy controls. At the first visit, the active tDCS group had an increased blood flow in regions processing visual stimuli and a decreased perfusion in other areas. Perfusion did not differ at the second follow-up visit. The lower perfusion level in migraineurs in the cuneus indicates a lower preactivation level. Anodal tDCS over the occipital cortex increases perfusion of several areas shortly after the stimulation period, but not 5 months later. An increase in the cortical preactivation level could mediate the transient reduction of the migraine frequency.Trial registration: NCT03237754 (registered at clincicaltrials.gov; full date of first trial registration: 03/08/2017)

Chaos in the Random Field Ising Model

The sensitivity of the random field Ising model to small random perturbations of the quenched disorder is studied via exact ground states obtained with a maximum-flow algorithm. In one and two space dimensions we find a mild form of chaos, meaning that the overlap of the old, unperturbed ground state and the new one is smaller than one, but extensive. In three dimensions the rearrangements are marginal (concentrated in the well defined domain walls). Implications for finite temperature variations and experiments are discussed.Comment: 4 pages RevTeX, 6 eps-figures include

Numerical study of the strongly screened vortex glass model in an external field

The vortex glass model for a disordered high-T_c superconductor in an external magnetic field is studied in the strong screening limit. With exact ground state (i.e. T=0) calculations we show that 1) the ground state of the vortex configuration varies drastically with infinitesimal variations of the strength of the external field, 2) the minimum energy of global excitation loops of length scale L do not depend on the strength of the external field, however 3) the excitation loops themself depend sensibly on the field. From 2) we infer the absence of a true superconducting state at any finite temperature independent of the external field.Comment: 6 pages RevTeX, 5 eps-figures include

Number partitioning as random energy model

Number partitioning is a classical problem from combinatorial optimisation. In physical terms it corresponds to a long range anti-ferromagnetic Ising spin glass. It has been rigorously proven that the low lying energies of number partitioning behave like uncorrelated random variables. We claim that neighbouring energy levels are uncorrelated almost everywhere on the energy axis, and that energetically adjacent configurations are uncorrelated, too. Apparently there is no relation between geometry (configuration) and energy that could be exploited by an optimization algorithm. This ``local random energy'' picture of number partitioning is corroborated by numerical simulations and heuristic arguments.Comment: 8+2 pages, 9 figures, PDF onl