Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations

Survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations that is superior to the commonly-used forward exchange rate in the respect that it does notinclude a risk premium. We use survey data and the technique of bootstrapping to test a number of propositions of interest. We are able to reject static or "randomwalk" expectations for both nominal and real exchange rates. Expected depreciation is large in magnitude. There is even statistically significant unconditional bias: during the 1981-85 "strong dollar period" the market persistently over estimated depreciation of the dollar. Expected depreciation is also variable, contrary to some recent claims. The expected future spot rate can be viewed as inelastic with respect to the contemporaneous spot rate, in that it also puts weight on other variables: the lagged expected spot rate (as in adaptive expectations), the lagged actual spot rate (distributed lag expectations), or a long-run equilibrium rate (regressive expectations). In one irnportant case, the relatively low weight that investors' expectations put on the contemporaneous spot rate constitutes a statistical rejection of rational expectations: we find that prediction errors are correlated with expected depreciation, so that investors would do better if they always reduced fractionally the magnitude of expected depreciation. This is the same result found by Bilson, Fama, and many others, except that it can no longer be attributed to a risk premium.

Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data

Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were willing to accept a lower expected return on dollar assets. At short-term horizons expectations exhibit bandwagon effects, while at longer-term horizons they show the reverse. A 10 percent yen appreciation generates the expectation of a further appreciation of 2.4 percent over the following week, for example, but a depreciation of 3.4 percent over the following year. At any horizon, investors would do better to reduce the absolute magnitude of expected depreciation. The true spot rate process behaves more like a random walk.

Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market

We apply the method of constrained asset share estimation (CASE) to test the mean-variance efficiency (MVE) of the stock market. This method allows conditional expected returns to vary in unrestricted ways, given investor preferences. We also allow conditional variances to follow an ARCH process. The data estimate reasonably the coefficient of relative risk aversion, though are unable to reject investor risk neutrality. We reject the restrictions implied by MVE, although changing conditional variances improve statistically upon measured market efficiency. We find that unrestricted asset-share and ARCH models help forecast excess returns. Once MVE is imposed, however, this forecasting ability disappears.

The Constrained Asset Share Estimation (CASE) Method: Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market

We apply the method of constrained asset share estimation (CASE) to test the mean-variance efficiency (MVE) of the stock market. This method allows conditional expected returns to vary in relatively unrestricted ways. The data estimate reasonably the price of risk, and, in some cases, the MVE model is valuable in explaining expected equity returns. Unlike with most tests of MVE. we can put an explicit interpretation on the alternative hypothesis -- a general linear Tobin portfolio choice model. We reject the restrictions implied by MVE.

Implementation and performance of SIBYLS: a dual endstation small-angle X-ray scattering and macromolecular crystallography beamline at the Advanced Light Source.

The SIBYLS beamline (12.3.1) of the Advanced Light Source at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, supported by the US Department of Energy and the National Institutes of Health, is optimized for both small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and macromolecular crystallography (MX), making it unique among the world's mostly SAXS or MX dedicated beamlines. Since SIBYLS was commissioned, assessments of the limitations and advantages of a combined SAXS and MX beamline have suggested new strategies for integration and optimal data collection methods and have led to additional hardware and software enhancements. Features described include a dual mode monochromator [containing both Si(111) crystals and Mo/B(4)C multilayer elements], rapid beamline optics conversion between SAXS and MX modes, active beam stabilization, sample-loading robotics, and mail-in and remote data collection. These features allow users to gain valuable insights from both dynamic solution scattering and high-resolution atomic diffraction experiments performed at a single synchrotron beamline. Key practical issues considered for data collection and analysis include radiation damage, structural ensembles, alternative conformers and flexibility. SIBYLS develops and applies efficient combined MX and SAXS methods that deliver high-impact results by providing robust cost-effective routes to connect structures to biology and by performing experiments that aid beamline designs for next generation light sources

Inclusive neutron cross-sections at forward angles from Nb Nb and Au Au collisions at 800-MeV/nucleon

Inclusive neutron spectra were measured at 0°, 4°, 8°, 15°, 30°, and 42° from Nb-Nb and Au-Au collisions at 800 MeV/nucleon. A peak that originates from neutron evaporation from the projectile appears in the spectra at angles out to 8°. The shapes and magnitudes of the spectra are compared with those calculated from models of nucleus-nucleus collisions. The differential cross sections for Au-Au collisions are about four times those for Nb-Nb collisions. The predictions of the Vlasov-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (VUU) and QMD theories agree with the angular distributions of the differential cross sections except at small angles; the VUU prediction overestimates the angular distributions from a few degrees to about 20°, whereas the QMD prediction underestimates the angular distributions below 8°. The Firestreak model overestimates the angular distribution for Nb-Nb collisions and underestimates it for Au-Au collisions. Also, the VUU and QMD models agree with the measured double-differential cross sections in more angular and energy regions than the Firestreak and intranuclear cascade models; however, none of the models can account for the peaks at small angles (θ≤15°)

Checklists in the operating room: Help or hurdle? A qualitative study on health workers' experiences

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Checklists have been used extensively as a cognitive aid in aviation; now, they are being introduced in many areas of medicine. Although few would dispute the positive effects of checklists, little is known about the process of introducing this tool into the health care environment. In 2008, a pre-induction checklist was implemented in our anaesthetic department; in this study, we explored the nurses' and physicians' acceptance and experiences with this checklist.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Focus group interviews were conducted with a purposeful sample of checklist users (nurses and physicians) from the Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care in a tertiary teaching hospital. The interviews were analysed qualitatively using systematic text condensation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Users reported that checklist use could divert attention away from the patient and that it influenced workflow and doctor-nurse cooperation. They described senior consultants as both sceptical and supportive; a head physician with a positive attitude was considered crucial for successful implementation. The checklist improved confidence in unfamiliar contexts and was used in some situations for which it was not intended. It also revealed insufficient equipment standardisation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest several issues and actions that may be important to consider during checklist use and implementation.</p