Political business cycles in local employment : evidence from Portugal

Using employment data for Portuguese municipalities, we find strong evidence of political business cycles. Employment increases shortly before elections mainly in municipalities where the mayor’s party has a majority of deputies in the municipal assembly and where she is running for reelection

QUANTIFICATION OF FLOODED AREAS OF PANTANAL BY SUB-PIXEL CLASSIFICATION OF MODIS TIME-SERIES DATA

Floods in the Pantanal affect the fish production and influence the dynamics of vegetation, also changing the meat production. The understanding of floods dynamics is crucial to infer the level of flooding, once it promotes changes in the whole plain. The understanding of floods dynamics is crucial to infer the level of flooding. MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) images provide wide coverage of the Earth.s surface with high temporal resolution, which are important features for flood monitoring. However, its moderate spatial resolution may cause the spectral mixing of different land cover classes within a single pixel. In this context, the objective of this study was to apply a methodology for sub-pixel classification using MODIS time-series data, in order to quantify the flooded areas in the Pantanal. Data from the mid-infrared channel of MODIS sensor allowed the monitoring of flood prone areas in the Pantanal during the 2008/2009 and 2007/2008 hydrological years. The drought and flood periods are quite variable, occurring from North to South and from East to West. The sub-pixel classification models, generated from Fuzzy ARTMAP neural network, demonstrated excellent suitability for the mapping and quantification of flooded areas of the Pantanal based on the Commitment measur

MAPEAMENTO DO RISCO DE INCÊNDIO NA BACIA DO ALTO PARAGUAI UTILIZANDO DADOS AVHRR-NOAA

Na Bacia do Alto Paraguai o fogo é muito utilizado para manejo de pastagens, principalmente durante a estação seca. A determinação do risco de incêndio em áreas de vegetação é uma informação importante para auxiliar as práticas de manejo adequado ao uso do fogo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar o mapeamento do risco de incêndio na Bacia do Alto Paraguai utilizando dados AVHRR-NOAA. A análise dos perfis temporais da Banda 1 e do NDVI nos meses de agosto, setembro e outubro de 2004 a 2008, em conjunto com os focos de calor detectados nas imagens NOAA, permitiu caracterizar o decréscimo da umidade da vegetação que proporciona a condição para ocorrência de incêndios. Os resultados mostraram que valores do fator de refletância da Banda 1 maiores que 5% e valores do NDVI menores que 0,40, podem estimar alto grau de risco de incêndio. O mapeamento do risco de incêndio utilizando dados AVHRR-NOAA demonstrou ter forte correlação com os focos de calor detectados nas imagens NOAA. O método mostrou ser viável e pode ser refinado para integrar os sistemas de prevenção de incêndio para alerta de queimadas e para tomadas de decisão para controle do fogo. Palavras-chave: Sensoriamento remoto. Processamento de imagens. Série temporal. Queimada. Pantanal. Fire risk mapping in the Alto Paraguai Basin using AVHRR-NOAA data In the Alto Paraguai River Basin the fire is widely used for pasture management, especially during the dry season. The determination of the fire risk in grasslands is a valuable information to aid the management practices of fire use. This study aimed to map the fire risk in the Alto Paraguai River Basin using NOAA-AVHRR data. The analysis of the temporal profiles derived from Channel 1 and NDVI in august, September and October from 2004 to 2008, in addiction to the hotspots detected by the NOAA images, allowed to characterize the decrease of vegetation moisture, which provides the condition for fire occurrence. The results have shown that values grater than 5% in Channel 1 and values lower than 0.40 in NDVI can estimate high fire risk. The fire risk mapping using NOAA-AVHRR data has shown a strong correlation with the hotspots detected in the NOAA images. The method has proved to be viable and can be refined to integrate the prevention systems to alert fire risks and for decision making to control the vegetation fire. Key words: Remote sensing. Image processing. Time-series. Vegetation fire. Pantanal

Life cycle assessment of advanced bioethanol production from pulp and paper sludge

This work evaluates the environmental performance of using pulp and paper sludge as feedstock for the production of second generation ethanol. An ethanol plant for converting 5400 tons of dry sludge/year was modelled and evaluated using a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment approach. The sludge is a burden for pulp and paper mills that is mainly disposed in landfilling. The studied system allows for the valorisation of the waste, which due to its high polysaccharide content is a valuable feedstock for bioethanol production. Eleven impact categories were analysed and the results showed that enzymatic hydrolysis and neutralisation of the CaCO3 are the environmental hotspots of the system contributing up to 85% to the overall impacts. Two optimisation scenarios were evaluated: (1) using a reduced HCl amount in the neutralisation stage and (2) co-fermentation of xylose and glucose, for maximal ethanol yield. Both scenarios displayed significant environmental impact improvements

Collection Score e as Oportunidades no Mercado de Non-Performing Loans

In the academic literature, credit scoring models are widely studied, while collection scoring models are less explored; likewise, there are few articles dealing with the Brazilian non-performing-loans market. This work has as main contributions: the use of scoring models in the area of collection and working with non-performing-loans data. The objective of this paper is to develop a collection scoring model through Logistic Regression to identify, in a portfolio of clients with non-performing-loans, to verify if it is possible to adjust a good model and to indicate which clients are more likely to pay the debts nonperforming credits The results show that the model worked well for the database, obtaining an excellent fit (accuracy of classification greater than 83% for the two samples and KS=68), pointing the viability of this methodology.Na literatura acadêmica, modelos aplicados à área de crédito (chamados de credit scoring) são largamente explorados, ao passo que modelos aplicados à cobrança (chamados de collection scoring) são pouco abordados; da mesma maneira existem poucos artigos que tratam o mercado brasileiro de empréstimos bancários não pagos ou mais comumente chamados de non-performing-loans. Este trabalho traz como principais contribuições: a utilização de modelos de scoring na área de Cobrança, e trabalhar com dados non-performing-loans. O objetivo deste trabalho é, desenvolver um modelo de collection scoring por intermédio de Regressão Logística para identificar, em uma carteira de clientes com “créditos podres”, para verificar a possibilidade ajustar um bom modelo com altas taxas de acerto e apontar quais clientes têm maior propensão de pagar os créditos não performados. Os resultados mostram que o modelo funcionou bem para o público testado, obtendo um excelente ajuste (taxa de acerto superior a 83% nas amostras de desenvolvimento e de validação; KS de 68), apontando a viabilidade de sua aplicação

MAPPING OF SUMMER AGRICULTURAL CROPS IN THE ALTO PARAGUAI BASIN THROUGH EVI/MODIS TIME SERIES

The main land use and land cover (LULC) changes that a given area passes over the time can be evaluated by using spatial-temporal analysis of satellites images. Then, it is possible to identify the LULC changes, as well as the main causes of environmental impacts. The objective of this paper was to analyze the LULC changes of the main agricultural lands cultivated in the Alto Paraguai Basin (BAP). This paper focused on the summer crops (soybean and corn) and the analysis of agricultural expansion. The results, considering a16-year comparison, showed an increase of 40.60% in the expansion of agricultural areas. The evaluation of the accuracy showed the efficiency of the methodology of agricultural mapping, presenting a Kappa Index of 0.85 for the 2000/2001 and 0.86 for the 2015/2016 crop season

Construction of a low-cost mobile embedded system for computer numerical control and educational purpose

This article describes the construction of a low-cost, mobile, CNC (Computerized Numerical Command) mini machine, bringing as its objective the gain of experience in relation to machining knowledge, where the device executes a list of movements written in the programming language G. For the development of the project, the Arduino Nano embedded system, two CD / DVD players and two H bridges (L293D) were used. Afterward, the assembly, programming and results of the project in question are described

ANALYSIS OF THE VEGETATION PHENOLOGY FROM THE ALTO PARAGUAI BASIN THROUGHT THE REPRESENTATION OF HARMONIC CYCLES OF EVI/MODIS TIME-SERIES

The Alto Paraguai Basin (BAP) is of strategic importance for Brazil, due to its ecological diversity of landscape, especially because it includes the Pantanal floodplain. The harmonic analysis can be used in remote sensing time-series data to study the cyclic behavior of vegetation indices. The visual representation of harmonic terms can help image interpretation through the combination of colors in the HLS (Hue, Lightness, Saturation) space which provides a soft visual transition effect between the cycles. The objective of this study was to analyze the vegetation phenology of the BAP using the harmonic analysis applied to an EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) time-series data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) during 10 hydrologic years from October 2001 to September 2011, considering the HLS representation of the harmonic terms. The results show that the vegetation phenology of BAP presents spatial patterns coherent with the vegetation development and consistent with the variability of the seasonal inundations in Pantanal, which determines the hydrologic conditions of the region, directly affecting the moment of maximum EVI. The HLS representation of harmonic terms indicates that it is an effective tool for the visual interpretation of vegetation cycle

High prevalence of chronic pelvic pain in women in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil and direct association with abdominal surgery

INTRODUCTION: Chronic pelvic pain is a disease that directly affects the social and professional lives of women. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of this clinical condition and to identify independent factors associated with it in women living in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil. METHODS: A one-year cross-sectional study was conducted in a population sample of 1,278 women over the age of 1,278 women over the age of 14 years. The target population was predominantly composed of women who are treated by the public health system. The questionnaire was administered by interviewers who were not linked to the city health care programs. The prevalence of the morbidity was estimated. First, we identified the significant variables associated with pelvic pain (p<0.10) and then we attributed values of 0 or 1 to the absence or presence of these variables. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify and estimate the simultaneous impact of the independent variables. The results were expressed by odds ratio and their 95% confidence interval with p<0.05. RESULTS: The disease was found in 11.5% (147/1,278) of the sample. The independent predictors were dyspareunia, previous abdominal surgery, depression, dysmenorrhea, anxiety, current sexual activity, low back pain, constipation, urinary symptoms, and low educational level. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of chronic pelvic pain in Ribeirão Preto is high and is associated with conditions that can usually be prevented, controlled, or resolved by improvement of public health policies and public education