Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean-atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model-the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models

Bone Morphogenetic Protein-9 Is a Potent Chondrogenic and Morphogenic Factor for Articular Cartilage Chondroprogenitors

Articular cartilage contains a subpopulation of tissue-specific progenitors that are an ideal cell type for cell therapies and generating neo-cartilage for tissue engineering applications. However, it is unclear whether the standard chondrogenic medium employing transforming growth factor-β (TGFβ) isoforms is optimal to differentiate these cells. We therefore used pellet culture to screen progenitors from immature bovine articular cartilage with a number of chondrogenic factors and discovered that bone morphogenetic factor-9 (BMP9) precociously induces their differentiation. This difference was apparent with toluidine blue staining and confirmed by biochemical and transcriptional analyses with BMP9 treated progenitors exhibiting 11-fold and 5-fold greater aggrecan and collagen type II gene expression than TGFβ1 treated progenitors. Quantitative gene expression analysis over 14 days highlighted the rapid and phased nature of BMP9 induced chondrogenesis with sequential activation of aggrecan then collagen type II, and negligible collagen type X gene expression. The extracellular matrix of TGFβ1treated progenitors analysed using atomic force microscopy was fibrillar and stiff whist BMP9-induced matrix of cells more compliant and correspondingly less fibrillar. Polarised light microscopy revealed an annular pattern of collagen fibril deposition typified by TGFβ1 treated pellets, whereas BMP9 treated pellets displayed a birefringence pattern that was more anisotropic. Remarkably, differentiated immature chondrocytes incubated as high-density cultures in vitro with BMP9 generated a pronounced anisotropic organisation of collagen fibrils indistinguishable from mature adult articular cartilage, with cells in deeper zones arranged in columnar fashion. This contrasted with cells grown with TGFβ1 where a concentric pattern of collagen fibrils was visualised within tissue pellets. In summary, BMP9 is a potent chondrogenic factor for articular cartilage progenitors and is also capable of inducing morphogenesis of adult-like cartilage, a highly desirable attribute for in vitro tissue-engineered cartilage

Configurational Entropy and Diffusivity of Supercooled Water

We calculate the configurational entropy S_conf for the SPC/E model of water for state points covering a large region of the (T,rho) plane. We find that (i) the (T,rho) dependence of S_conf correlates with the diffusion constant and (ii) that the line of maxima in S_conf tracks the line of density maxima. Our simulation data indicate that the dynamics are strongly influenced by S_conf even above the mode-coupling temperature T_MCT(rho).Comment: Significant update of reference

Out of Amazonia: Late Holocene Climate Change and the Tupi-Guarani Trans-Continental Expansion

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from SAGE Publications via the DOI in this recordThe late Holocene expansion of the Tupi-Guarani languages from southern Amazonia to SE South America constitutes one of the largest expansions of any linguistic family in the world, spanning ~ 4000 km between latitudes 0°S and 35°S at about 2500 yr B.P. However, the underlying reasons for this expansion are a matter of debate. Here, we compare continental-scale paleoecological, paleoclimate, and archaeological datasets, to examine the role of climate change in facilitating the expansion of this forest-farming culture. Because this expansion lies within the path of the South American Low-Level Jet, the key mechanism for moisture transport across lowland South America, we were able to explore the relationship between climate change, forest expansion, and the Tupi-Guarani. Our data synthesis shows broad synchrony between late Holocene increasing precipitation and southerly expansion of both tropical forest and Guarani archaeological sites – the southernmost branch of the Tupi-Guarani. We conclude that climate change likely facilitated expansion of the Guarani forest-farming culture by increasing the area of forested landscape that they could exploit, showing a prime example of ecological opportunism.The ideas and themes developed in this paper stem from a European Research Council project ‘Pre-Columbian Amazon-Scale Transformations’ (ERC-CoG 616179) to JI. The University of Reading’s ‘Centre for Past Climate Change’ funded a writing workshop for this paper. RS was funded by an NERC ‘Scenario’ DTP PhD award. JGS was funded by a CAPES PhD scholarship (Ministry of Education, Brazil). JFC and MLC received postdoctoral funding from the University of Reading and the Arts and Humanities Research Council, respectively

The Nevados de Payachata volcanic region (18°S/69°W, N. Chile)

Subduction-related volcanism in the Nevados de Payachata region of the Central Andes at 18°S comprises two temporally and geochemically distinct phases. An older period of magmatism is represented by glaciated stratocones and ignimbrite sheets of late Miocene age. The Pleistocene to Recent phase (≤0.3 Ma) includes the twin stratovolcanoes Volcan Pomerape and Volcan Parinacota (the Nevados de Payachata volcanic group) and two small centers to the west (i. e., Caquena and Vilacollo). Both stratovolcanoes consist of an older dome-and-flow series capped by an andesitic cone. The younger cone, i. e., V. Parinacota, suffered a postglacial cone collapse producing a widespread debris-avalanche deposit. Subsequently, the cone reformed during a brief, second volcanic episode. A number of small, relatively mafic, satellitic cinder cones and associated flows were produced during the most recent activity at V. Parinacota. At the older cone, i. e., V. Pomerape, an early dome sequence with an overlying isolated mafic spatter cone and the cone-forming andesitic-dacitic phase (mostly flows) have been recognized. The two Nevados de Payachata stratovolcanoes display continuous major- and trace-element trends from high-K 2 O basaltic andesites through rhyolites (53%–76% SiO 2 ) that are well defined and distinct from those of the older volcanic centers. Petrography, chemical composition, and eruptive styles at V. Parinacota differ between pre- and post-debris-avalanche lavas. Precollapse flows have abundant amphibole (at SiO 2 > 59 wt%) and lower Mg numbers than postcollapse lavas, which are generally less silicic and more restricted in composition. Compositional variations indicate that the magmas of the Nevados de Payachata volcanic group evolved through a combination of fractional crystallization, crustal assimilation, and intratrend magma mixing. Isotope compositions exhibit only minor variations. Pb-isotope ratios are relatively low ( 206 Pb/ 204 Pb = 17.95–18.20 and 208 Pb/ 204 Pb = 38.2–38.5); 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios range 0.70612–0.70707, 143 Nd/ 144 Nd ratios range 0.51238–0.51230, and γ 18 O SMOW values range from + 6.8% o to + 7.6% o SMOW. A comparison with other Central Volcanic Zone centers shows that the Nevados de Payachata magmas are unusually rich in Ba (up to 1800 ppm) and Sr (up to 1700 ppm) and thus represent an unusual chemical signature in the Andean arc. These chemical and isotope variations suggest a complex petrogenetic evolution involving at least three distinct components. Primary mantle-derived melts, which are similar to those generated by subduction processes throughout the Andean arc, are modified by deep crustal interactions to produce magmas that are parental to those erupted at the surface. These magmas subsequently evolve at shallower levels through assimilation-crystallization processes involving upper crust and intratrend magma mixing which in both cases were restricted to end members of low isotopic contrast.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47805/1/445_2005_Article_BF01073587.pd

Quantum critical spin-liquid-like behavior in S = 1/2 quasi-kagome lattice compound CeRh₁-ₓPdₓSn investigated using muon spin relaxation and neutron scattering

We present the results of muon spin relaxation (μSR) and neutron scattering on the Ce-based quasikagome lattice CeRh1−xPdxSn (x=0.1 to 0.75). Our ZF-μSR results reveal the absence of static long-range magnetic order down to 0.05~K in x=0.1 single crystals. The weak temperature-dependent plateaus of the dynamic spin fluctuations below 0.2~K in ZF-μSR together with its longitudinal-field (LF) dependence between 0 and 3~kG indicate the presence of dynamic spin fluctuations persisting even at T = 0.05~K without static magnetic order. On the other hand, C4f/T increases as --log T on cooling below 0.9~K, passes through a broad maximum at 0.13~K and slightly decreases on further cooling. The ac-susceptibility also exhibits a frequency independent broad peak at 0.16~K, which is prominent with an applied field H along c-direction. We, therefore, argue that such a behavior for x=0.1 (namely, a plateau in spin relaxation rate (λ) below 0.2~K and a linear T dependence in C4f below 0.13~K) can be attributed to a metallic spin-liquid (SL) ground state near the quantum critical point in the frustrated Kondo lattice. The LF-μSR study suggests that the out of kagome plane spin fluctuations are responsible for the SL behavior. Low energy inelastic neutron scattering (INS) of x = 0.1 reveals gapless magnetic excitations, which are also supported by the behavior of C4f proportional to T1.1 down to 0.06~K

Biomarker-Based HIV Incidence in a Community Sample of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Paris, France

BACKGROUND: Population-based estimates of HIV incidence in France have revealed that men who have sex with men (MSM) are the most affected population and contribute to nearly half of new infections each year. We sought to estimate HIV incidence among sexually active MSM in Paris gay community social venues. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2009 in a sample of commercial venues such as bars, saunas and backrooms. We collected a behavioural questionnaire and blood sample. Specimens were tested for HIV infection and positive specimens then tested for recent infection by the enzyme immunoassay for recent HIV-1 infection (EIA-RI). We assessed the presence of antiretroviral therapy among infected individuals to rule out treated patients in the algorithm that determined recent infection. Biomarker-based cross-sectional incidence estimates were calculated. We enrolled 886 MSM participants among which 157 (18%) tested HIV positive. In positive individuals who knew they were infected, 75% of EIA-RI positive results were due to ART. Of 157 HIV positive specimens, 15 were deemed to be recently infected. The overall HIV incidence was estimated at 3.8% person-years (py) [95%CI: 1.5-6.2]. Although differences were not significant, incidence was estimated to be 3.5% py [0.1-6.1] in men having had a negative HIV test in previous year and 4.8% py [0.1-10.6] in men having had their last HIV test more than one year before the survey, or never tested. Incidence was estimated at 4.1% py [0-8.3] in men under 35 years and 2.5% py [0-5.4] in older men. CONCLUSIONS/ SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first community-based survey to estimate HIV incidence among MSM in France. It includes ART detection and reveals a high level of HIV transmission in sexually active individuals, despite a high uptake of HIV testing. These data call for effective prevention programs targeting MSM engaged in high-risk behaviours

Reduction of elasmobranch by-catch in the hake semipelagic near-bottom longline fishery in the Algarve (Southern Portugal)

Elasmobranch fish, particularly deep-sea sharks, are the most important component of the by-catch of the hake semipelagic near-bottom 'pedra-e-bola' longline fishery in the Algarve (South Portugal) and most of these fish are discarded. The effects of the removal of the lower hooks were evaluated, in terms of target and by-catch reductions, by quantifying the catches of each hook relative to the distance from the bottom. The analysis showed that most European hake (Merluccius merluccius), the target species of this fishery, were caught in the middle range of the hooks, with very few individuals caught near the bottom, whereas for sharks the situation was the opposite, with most hooked near the bottom. The removal of the lower three pairs of hooks would result in a small reduction in the catch of the target species, but a much more significant reduction in elasmobranch by-catch. In the specific case of the blackmouth catshark (Galeus melastomus), discard mortality would be further minimized due to the fact that the lower hooks capture significantly smaller animals that are always discarded compared with hooks that are more distant from the bottom

Visual hallucinations in neurological and ophthalmological disease: pathophysiology and management

Visual hallucinations are common in older people and are especially associated with ophthalmological and neurological disorders, including dementia and Parkinson's disease. Uncertainties remain whether there is a single underlying mechanism for visual hallucinations or they have different disease-dependent causes. However, irrespective of mechanism, visual hallucinations are difficult to treat. The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) funded a research programme to investigate visual hallucinations in the key and high burden areas of eye disease, dementia and Parkinson's disease, culminating in a workshop to develop a unified framework for their clinical management. Here we summarise the evidence base, current practice and consensus guidelines that emerged from the workshop.Irrespective of clinical condition, case ascertainment strategies are required to overcome reporting stigma. Once hallucinations are identified, physical, cognitive and ophthalmological health should be reviewed, with education and self-help techniques provided. Not all hallucinations require intervention but for those that are clinically significant, current evidence supports pharmacological modification of cholinergic, GABAergic, serotonergic or dopaminergic systems, or reduction of cortical excitability. A broad treatment perspective is needed, including carer support. Despite their frequency and clinical significance, there is a paucity of randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial evidence where the primary outcome is an improvement in visual hallucinations. Key areas for future research include the development of valid and reliable assessment tools for use in mechanistic studies and clinical trials, transdiagnostic studies of shared and distinct mechanisms and when and how to treat visual hallucinations