Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective

In the first half of this century, special attention was given to two features of the business cycle: (1) the comovement of many individual economic series and (2) the different behavior of the economy during expansions and contractions. Both of these attributes were ignored in many subsequent business cycle models, which were often linear representations of a single macroeconomic aggregate. However, recent theoretical and empirical research has revived interest in each attribute separately. Notably, dynamic factor models have been used to obtain a single common factor from a set of macroeconomic variables, and nonlinear models have been used to describe the regime-switching nature of aggregate output. We survey these two strands of research and then provide some suggestive empirical analysis in an effort to unite the two literatures and to assess their usefulness in a statistical characterization of business- cycle dynamics.

Modeling Bond yields in finance and macroeconomics

From a macroeconomic perspective, the short-term interest rate is a policy instrument under the direct control of the central bank. From a finance perspective, long rates are risk-adjusted averages of expected future short rates. Thus, as illustrated by much recent research, a joint macro-finance modeling strategy will provide the most comprehensive understanding of the term structure of interest rates. We discuss various questions that arise in this research, and we also present a new examination of the relationship between two prominent dynamic, latent factor models in this literature: the Nelson-Siegel and affine no-arbitrage term structure models. JEL Klassifikation: G1, E4, E5

Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics

From a macroeconomic perspective, the short-term interest rate is a policy instrument under the direct control of the central bank. From a finance perspective, long rates are risk-adjusted averages of expected future short rates. Thus, as illustrated by much recent research, a joint macro-finance modeling strategy will provide the most comprehensive understanding of the term structure of interest rates. We discuss various questions that arise in this research, and we also present a new examination of the relationship between two prominent dynamic, latent factor models in this literature: the Nelson-Siegel and affne no-arbitrage term structure models.

The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a nonstructural analysis

We estimate a model with latent factors that summarize the yield curve (namely, level, slope, and curvature) as well as observable macroeconomic variables (real activity, inflation, and the stance of monetary policy). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. We find strong evidence of the effects of macro variables on future movements in the yield curve and much weaker evidence for a reverse influence. We also relate our results to a traditional macroeconomic approach based on the expectations hypothesis

Differential Reaction of Two Varieties of Sorghum to Colchicine Treatment

The induction of diploid true-breeding mutants by colchicine treatment of a true-breeding variety of sorghum vulgare Pers. Has been reported by Franzke and Ross (9); Ross, Franzke and Schuh (22); and others (7,10). It has been suggested that such mutant plants might result from point mutations made homozygous by a somatic reduction of the chromosomes followed by a doubling of the chromosome number in a cell which organized a growing point after the original one had been inactivated during c-tumor formation. Observations made during the course of routine work with sorghum indicated that after colchicine treatment some varieties produced tetraploids with few or no gene mutations. The present studies were undertaken during the summer of 1955 and the winter of 1955-56, to demonstrate differences between varieties of sorghum in their reaction to colchicine treatment and to investigate the bases for such difference. The material used in this study consisted of Experimental 3, an unreleased variety, and Norghum, a released variety, both produced by the South Dakota State College Agricultural Experiment Station, and two translocation stocks obtained from the University of Nebraska

Financial problems of the American city,

This item was digitized by the Internet Archive

Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics

From a macroeconomic perspective, the short-term interest rate is a policy instrument under the direct control of the central bank. From a finance perspective, long rates are risk-adjusted averages of expected future short rates. Thus, as illustrated by much recent research, a joint macro-finance modeling strategy will provide the most comprehensive understanding of the term structure of interest rates. We discuss various questions that arise in this research, and we also present a new examination of the relationship between two prominent dynamic, latent factor models in this literature: the Nelson-Siegel and affine no-arbitrage term structure models.Term structure, yield curve, Nelson-Siegel model, affine equilibrium model

Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics

From a macroeconomic perspective, the short-term interest rate is a policy instrument under the direct control of the central bank. From a finance perspective, long rates are risk-adjusted averages of expected future short rates. Thus, as illustrated by much recent research, a joint macro-finance modeling strategy will provide the most comprehensive understanding of the term structure of interest rates. We discuss various questions that arise in this research, and we also present a new examination of the relationship between two prominent dynamic, latent factor models in this literature: the Nelson-Siegel and affine no-arbitrage term structure models.term structure, yield curve, Nelson-Siegel model, affine equilibrium model