Seismic risk of infrastructure systems with treatment of and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty

Modern society’s very existence is tied to the proper and reliable functioning of its Critical Infrastructure (CI) systems. In the seismic risk assessment of an infrastructure, taking into account all the relevant uncertainties affecting the problem is crucial. While both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties affect the estimate of seismic risk to an infrastructure and should be considered, the focus herein is on the latter. After providing an up-to-date literature review about the treatment of and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty, this paper presents a comprehensive framework for seismic risk assessment of interdependent spatially distributed infrastructure systems that accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and provides confidence in the estimate, as well as sensitivity of uncertainty in the output to the components of epistemic uncertainty in the input. The logic tree approach is used for the treatment of epistemic uncertainty and for the sensitivity analysis, whose results are presented through tornado diagrams. Sensitivity is also evaluated by elaborating the logic tree results through weighted ANOVA. The formulation is general and can be applied to risk assessment problems involving not only infrastructural but also structural systems. The presented methodology was implemented into an open-source software, OOFIMS, and applied to a synthetic city composed of buildings and a gas network and subjected to seismic hazard. The gas system’s performance is assessed through a flow-based analysis. The seismic hazard, the vulnerability assessment and the evaluation of the gas system’s operational state are addressed with a simulation-based approach. The presence of two systems (buildings and gas network) proves the capability to handle system interdependencies and highlights that uncertainty in models/parameters related to one system can affect uncertainty in the output related to dependent systems

GENERATION OF UNIFORM HAZARD FLOOR RESPONSE SPECTRA FOR LINEAR MDOF STRUCTURES

This paper presents a probabilistic seismic demand model for predicting the pseudo-acceleration response of a linear nonstructural component attached to a linear structure. The model relates the response of the component with the pseudo-acceleration response of the generic mode of vibration of the supporting structure. Interaction between component and structure is ignored. Independency of the model on the specific characteristics of seismic hazard at the site is showed. The model is used to develop a method for direct generation of uniform hazard floor response spectra. By using the method floor spectra are determined through a closed-form expression, given the mean annual frequency of interest, the non-structural component damping ratio, the modal properties of the structure, and three uniform hazard spectra representing seismic hazard at the site

Seismic Vulnerability of the Italian Roadway Bridge Stock

This study focuses on the seismic vulnerability evaluation of the Italian roadway bridge stock, within the framework of a Civil Protection sponsored project. A comprehensive database of existing bridges (17,000 bridges with different level of knowledge) was implemented. At the core of the study stands a procedure for automatically carrying out state-of-the-art analytical evaluation of fragility curves for two performance levels – damage and collapse – on an individual bridge basis. A webGIS was developed to handle data and results. The main outputs are maps of bridge seismic risk (from the fragilities and the hazard maps) at the national level and real-time scenario damage-probability maps (from the fragilities and the scenario shake maps). In the latter case the webGIS also performs network analysis to identify routes to be followed by rescue teams. Consistency of the fragility derivation over the entire bridge stock is regarded as a major advantage of the adopted approach

growth and nitrogen metabolism of sea bass fed graded levels of nucleic acid nitrogen from yeast or rna extract as partial substitute for protein nitrogen from fish meal

Some studies carried out in mammalian models have shown de novo synthesis and salvage of nucleotides to be a costly metabolic process and a dietary supplementation with nucleic acids (NA) or nucleotides has been suggested to result in a protein sparing action (Sanderson and He, 1994). On the other hand, high levels of dietary NA could have toxic effects and lead to disturbance in protein, lipid and carbohydrate metabolism in monogastric animals lacking uricase activity, an enzyme involved in NA degradation (Clifford and Story, 1976). So far, there is no clear indication of such effects in fish fed nucleic acid-enriched diets (Tacon and Cooke, 1980; Rumsey et al., 1992; Fournier et al., 2002). The aim of this experiment was to investigate growth response and N metabolism in juvenile sea bass (D. labrax) fed diets supplying graded levels of nucleic acid N from dry brewer's yeast or RNA extract as partial substitutes for protein nitrogen provided by fish meal

Role of boundaries in micromagnetic calculations of magnonic spectra of arrays of magnetic nanoelements

PublishedJournal ArticleWe have used micromagnetic simulations performed with open and periodic boundary conditions to study the influence of the presence of array boundaries on the spectra and spatial profiles of collective spin-wave excitations in arrays of magnetic nanoelements. The spectra and spatial profiles of collective spin waves excited in isolated arrays of nanoelements and those forming a part of quasi-infinite arrays are qualitatively different even if the same excitation field is used in the simulations. In particular, the use of periodic boundary conditions suppresses the excitation of nonuniform collective modes by uniform excitation fields. However, the use of nonuniform excitation fields in combination with periodic boundary conditions is shown to enable investigation of the structure of magnonic dispersion curves for quasi-infinite arrays (magnonic crystals) in different directions in the reciprocal space and for different magnonic bands. The results obtained in the latter case show a perfect agreement with those obtained with the dynamical matrix method for infinite arrays of nanoelements of the same geometry and magnetic properties. © 2013 American Physical Society.The research leading to these results has received funding from the ECs 7th Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant No. 233552 (DYNAMAG) and from EPSRC of the UK under Project No. EP/E055087/1

Human west nile virus lineage 2 infection: Epidemiological, clinical, and virological findings

West Nile virus (WNV) lineage 2 is expanding and causing large outbreaks in Europe. In this study, we analyzed the epidemiological, clinical, and virological features of WNV lineage 2 infection during the large outbreak that occurred in northern Italy in 2018. The study population included 86 patients with neuroinvasive disease (WNND), 307 with fever (WNF), and 34 blood donors. Phylogenetic analysis of WNV full genome sequences from patients' samples showed that the virus belonged to the widespread central/southern European clade of WNV lineage 2 and was circulating in the area at least since 2014. The incidence of WNND and WNF progressively increased with age and was higher in males than in females. Among WNND patients, the case fatality rate was 22%. About 70% of blood donors reported symptoms during follow-up. Within the first week after symptom onset, WNV RNA was detectable in the blood or urine of 80% of patients, while 20% and 40% of WNND and WNF patients, respectively, were WNV IgM-seronegative. In CSF samples of WNND patients, WNV RNA was typically detectable when WNV IgM antibodies were absent. Blunted or no WNV IgM response and high WNV IgG levels were observed in seven patients with previous flavivirus immunity

Research needs towards a resilient community: Vulnerability reduction, infrastructural systems model, loss assessment, resilience-based design and emergency management

Most of the literature on resilience is devoted to its assessment. It seems time to move from analysis to design, to develop the tools needed to enhance resilience. Resilience enhancement, a close relative of the less fashionable risk mitigation, adds to the latter, at least in the general perception, a systemic dimension. Resilience is often paired with community, and the latter is a system. This chapter therefore discusses strategies to enhance resilience, endorses one of prevention rather than cure, and focuses in the remainder on the role played by systemic analysis, i.e. the analysis of the built environment modelled beyond a simple collection of physical assets, with due care to the associated interdependencies. Research needs are identified and include challenges in network modelling, the replacement of generic fragility curves for components, how to deal with evolving state of information

Proposal for a standard problem for micromagnetic simulations including spin-transfer torque

The spin-transfer torque between itinerant electrons and the magnetization in a ferromagnet is of fundamental interest for the applied physics community. To investigate the spin-transfer torque, powerful simulation tools are mandatory. We propose a micromagnetic standard problem includingthe spin-transfer torque that can be used for the validation and falsication of micromagnetic simulation tools. The work is based on the micromagnetic model extended by the spin-transfer torque in continuously varying magnetizations as proposed by Zhang and Li. The standard problem geometry is a permalloy cuboid of 100 nm edge length and 10 nm thickness, which contains a Landau pattern with a vortex in the center of the structure. A spin-polarized dc current density of 1012 A/m2 flows laterally through the cuboid and moves the vortex core to a new steady-state position. We show that the new vortex-core position is a sensitive measure for the correctness of micromagnetic simulatorsthat include the spin-transfer torque. The suitability of the proposed problem as a standard problem is tested by numerical results from four different finite-difference and finite-element-based simulation tools