Population-level susceptibility, severity and spread of pandemic influenza: design of, and initial results from, a pre-pandemic and hibernating pandemic phase study using cross-sectional data from the Health Survey for England (HSE)

Background: Assessing severity and spread of a novel influenza strain at the start of a pandemic is critical for informing a targeted and proportional response. It requires community-level studies to estimate the burden of infection and disease. Rapidly initiating such studies in a pandemic is difficult. The study aims to establish an efficient system allowing real-time assessment of population susceptibility, spread of infection and clinical attack rates in the event of a pandemic. / Methods: We developed and appended additional survey questions and specimen collection to the Health Survey for England (HSE) – a large, annual, rolling nationally representative general population survey recruiting throughout the year – to enable rapid population-based surveys of influenza infection and disease during a pandemic. Using these surveys we can assess the spread of the virus geographically, by age and through time. The data generated can also provide denominators for national estimates of case fatality and hospitalisation rates. Phase 1: we compared retrospectively collected HSE illness rates during the first two infection waves of the 2009 pandemic with the Flu Watch study (a prospective community cohort). Monthly and seasonal age-specific rates of illness and proportion vaccinated were compared. Phase 2: we piloted blood specimen and data collection alongside the 2012–13 HSE. We are developing laboratory methods and protocols for real-time serological assays of a novel pandemic influenza virus using these specimens, and automated programmes for analysing and reporting illness and infection rates. Phase 3: during inter-pandemic years, the study enters a holding phase, where it is included in the yearly HSE ethics application and planning procedures, allowing rapid triggering in a pandemic. Phase 4: once retriggered, the study will utilise the methods developed in phase 2 to monitor the severity and spread of the pandemic in real time. / Results: Phase 1: the rates of reported illness during the first two waves in the HSE underestimated the community burden as measured by Flu Watch, but the patterns of illness by age and time were broadly comparable. The extent of underestimation was greatest for HSE participants interviewed later in the year compared with those interviewed closer to the pandemic. Vaccine uptake in the HSE study was comparable to independent national estimates and the Flu Watch study. Phases 2 and 3: illness data and serological samples from 2018 participants were collected in the 2012–13 HSE and transferred to the University College London Hospital. In the 2013 HSE and onwards, this project was included in the annual HSE ethics and planning rounds. / Conclusions: The HSE’s underestimation of illness rates during the first two waves of the pandemic is probably due to recall bias and the limitation of being able to report only one illness when multiple illnesses per season can occur. Changes to the illness questions (reporting only recent illnesses) should help minimise these issues. Additional prospective follow-up could improve measurement of disease incidence. The representative nature of the HSE allows accurate measurements of vaccine uptake. / Study registration: This study is registered as ISRCTN80214280. / Funding: This project was funded by the NIHR Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 3, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Effects of seasonal and pandemic influenza on health-related quality of life, work and school absence in England: results from the Flu Watch cohort study

BACKGROUND: Estimates of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and work/school absences for influenza are typically based on medically-attended cases or those meeting influenza-like-illness (ILI) case definitions, and thus biased towards severe disease. Although community influenza cases are more common, estimates of their effects on HRQoL and absences are limited. OBJECTIVES: To measure Quality-Adjusted Life Days and Years (QALDs and QALYs) lost and work/school absences among community cases of acute respiratory infections (ARI), ILI and influenza A and B and to estimate community burden of QALY loss and absences from influenza. PATIENTS/ METHODS: Flu Watch was a community cohort in England from 2006-2011. Participants were followed-up weekly. During respiratory illness they prospectively recorded daily symptoms, work/school absences and EQ-5D-3L data and submitted nasal swabs for RT-PCR influenza testing. RESULTS: Average QALD lost was 0.26, 0.93, 1.61 and 1.84 for ARI, ILI, H1N1pdm09 and influenza B cases respectively. 40% of influenza A cases and 24% of influenza B cases took time off work/school with an average duration of 3.6 days and 2.4 days respectively. In England, community influenza cases lost 24,300 QALYs in 2010/11 and had an estimated 2.9 million absences per season based on data from 2006/07 - 2009/10. CONCLUSIONS: Our QALDs and QALYs lost and work and school absence estimates are lower than previous estimates because we focus on community cases, most of which are mild, may not meet ILI definitions and do not result in healthcare consultations. Nevertheless, they contribute a substantial loss of HRQoL on a population level. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic groups in England are at increased risk of death from COVID-19: indirect standardisation of NHS mortality data [version 2; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: International and UK data suggest that Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups are at increased risk of infection and death from COVID-19. We aimed to explore the risk of death in minority ethnic groups in England using data reported by NHS England. / Methods: We used NHS data on patients with a positive COVID-19 test who died in hospitals in England published on 28th April, with deaths by ethnicity available from 1st March 2020 up to 5pm on 21 April 2020. We undertook indirect standardisation of these data (using the whole population of England as the reference) to produce ethnic specific standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) adjusted for age and geographical region. / Results: The largest total number of deaths in minority ethnic groups were Indian (492 deaths) and Black Caribbean (460 deaths) groups. Adjusting for region we found a lower risk of death for White Irish (SMR 0.52; 95%CIs 0.45-0.60) and White British ethnic groups (0.88; 95%CIs 0.86-0.0.89), but increased risk of death for Black African (3.24; 95%CIs 2.90-3.62), Black Caribbean (2.21; 95%CIs 2.02-2.41), Pakistani (3.29; 95%CIs 2.96-3.64), Bangladeshi (2.41; 95%CIs 1.98-2.91) and Indian (1.70; 95%CIs 1.56-1.85) minority ethnic groups. / Conclusion: Our analysis adds to the evidence that BAME people are at increased risk of death from COVID-19 even after adjusting for geographical region. We believe there is an urgent need to take action to reduce the risk of death for BAME groups and better understand why some ethnic groups experience greater risk. Actions that are likely to reduce these inequities include ensuring adequate income protection (so that low paid and zero-hours contract workers can afford to follow social distancing recommendations), reducing occupational risks (such as ensuring adequate personal protective equipment), reducing barriers in accessing healthcare and providing culturally and linguistically appropriate public health communications

Incidence, healthcare-seeking behaviours, antibiotic use and natural history of common infection syndromes in England: results from the Bug Watch community cohort study

Background: Better information on the typical course and management of acute common infections in the community could inform antibiotic stewardship campaigns. We aimed to investigate the incidence, management, and natural history of a range of infection syndromes (respiratory, gastrointestinal, mouth/dental, skin/soft tissue, urinary tract, and eye). Methods: Bug Watch was an online prospective community cohort study of the general population in England (2018–2019) with weekly symptom reporting for 6 months. We combined symptom reports into infection syndromes, calculated incidence rates, described the proportion leading to healthcare-seeking behaviours and antibiotic use, and estimated duration and severity. Results: The cohort comprised 873 individuals with 23,111 person-weeks follow-up. The mean age was 54 years and 528 (60%) were female. We identified 1422 infection syndromes, comprising 40,590 symptom reports. The incidence of respiratory tract infection syndromes was two per person year; for all other categories it was less than one. 194/1422 (14%) syndromes led to GP (or dentist) consultation and 136/1422 (10%) to antibiotic use. Symptoms usually resolved within a week and the third day was the most severe. Conclusions: Most people reported managing their symptoms without medical consultation. Interventions encouraging safe self-management across a range of acute infection syndromes could decrease pressure on primary healthcare services and support targets for reducing antibiotic prescribing

Effects of seasonal and pandemic influenza on health‐related quality of life, work and school absence in England: Results from the Flu Watch cohort study

BACKGROUND: Estimates of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and work/school absences for influenza are typically based on medically-attended cases or those meeting influenza-like-illness (ILI) case definitions, and thus biased towards severe disease. Although community influenza cases are more common, estimates of their effects on HRQoL and absences are limited. OBJECTIVES: To measure Quality-Adjusted Life Days and Years (QALDs and QALYs) lost and work/school absences among community cases of acute respiratory infections (ARI), ILI and influenza A and B and to estimate community burden of QALY loss and absences from influenza. PATIENTS/ METHODS: Flu Watch was a community cohort in England from 2006-2011. Participants were followed-up weekly. During respiratory illness they prospectively recorded daily symptoms, work/school absences and EQ-5D-3L data and submitted nasal swabs for RT-PCR influenza testing. RESULTS: Average QALD lost was 0.26, 0.93, 1.61 and 1.84 for ARI, ILI, H1N1pdm09 and influenza B cases respectively. 40% of influenza A cases and 24% of influenza B cases took time off work/school with an average duration of 3.6 days and 2.4 days respectively. In England, community influenza cases lost 24,300 QALYs in 2010/11 and had an estimated 2.9 million absences per season based on data from 2006/07 - 2009/10. CONCLUSIONS: Our QALDs and QALYs lost and work and school absence estimates are lower than previous estimates because we focus on community cases, most of which are mild, may not meet ILI definitions and do not result in healthcare consultations. Nevertheless, they contribute a substantial loss of HRQoL on a population level. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Comparative Anatomical Analyses of the Forearm Muscles of Cebus libidinosus (Rylands et al. 2000): Manipulatory Behavior and Tool Use

The present study describes the flexor and extensor muscles in Cebus libidinosus' forearm and compares them with those from humans, chimpanzees and baboons. The data is presented in quantitative anatomical indices for similarity. The capuchin forearm muscles showed important similarities with chimpanzees and humans, particularly those that act on thumb motion and allow certain degree of independence from other hand structures, even though their configuration does not enable a true opposable thumb. The characteristics of Cebus' forearm muscles corroborate the evolutionary convergence towards an adaptive behavior (tool use) between Cebus genus and apes

Grooming Up the Hierarchy: The Exchange of Grooming and Rank-Related Benefits in a New World Primate

Seyfarth's model assumes that female primates derive rank-related benefits from higher-ranking females in exchange for grooming. As a consequence, the model predicts females prefer high-ranking females as grooming partners and compete for the opportunity to groom them. Therefore, allogrooming is expected to be directed up the dominance hierarchy and to occur more often between females with adjacent ranks. Although data from Old World primates generally support the model, studies on the relation between grooming and dominance rank in the New World genus Cebus have found conflicting results, showing considerable variability across groups and species. In this study, we investigated the pattern of grooming in wild tufted capuchin females (Cebus apella nigritus) in Iguazú National Park, Argentina by testing both the assumption (i.e., that females gain rank-related return benefits from grooming) and predictions (i.e., that females direct grooming up the dominance hierarchy and the majority of grooming occurs between females with adjacent ranks) of Seyfarth's model. Study subjects were 9 adult females belonging to a single group. Results showed that grooming was given in return for tolerance during naturally occurring feeding, a benefit that higher-ranking females can more easily grant. Female grooming was directed up the hierarchy and was given more often to partners with similar rank. These findings provide supporting evidence for both the assumption and predictions of Seyfarth's model and represent, more generally, the first evidence of reciprocal behavioural interchanges driven by rank-related benefits in New World female primates

Primate archaeology evolves

Since its inception, archaeology has traditionally focused exclusively on humans and our direct ancestors. However, recent years have seen archaeological techniques applied to material evidence left behind by non-human animals. Here, we review advances made by the most prominent field investigating past non-human tool use: primate archaeology. This field combines survey of wild primate activity areas with ethological observations, excavations and analyses that allow the reconstruction of past primate behaviour. Because the order Primates includes humans, new insights into the behavioural evolution of apes and monkeys also can be used to better interrogate the record of early tool use in our own, hominin, lineage. This work has recently doubled the set of primate lineages with an excavated archaeological record, adding Old World macaques and New World capuchin monkeys to chimpanzees and humans, and it has shown that tool selection and transport, and discrete site formation, are universal among wild stone-tool-using primates. It has also revealed that wild capuchins regularly break stone tools in a way that can make them difficult to distinguish from simple early hominin tools. Ultimately, this research opens up opportunities for the development of a broader animal archaeology, marking the end of archaeology's anthropocentric era

Universal Behaviors as Candidate Traditions in Wild Spider Monkeys

Candidate traditions were documented across three communities of wild spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) using an a priori approach to identify behavioral variants and a statistical approach to examine differences in their proportional use. This methodology differs from previous studies of animal traditions, which used retrospective data and relied on the ‘exclusion method’ to identify candidate traditions. Our a priori approach increased the likelihood that behavior variants with equivalent functions were considered and our statistical approach enabled the proportional use of ‘universal’ behaviors, i.e., used across all communities, to be examined for the first time in any animal species as candidate traditions. Among universal behaviors we found 14 ‘community preferred’ variants. After considering the extent to which community preferred variants were due to ecological and, to a lesser degree, genetic differences, we concluded that at least six were likely maintained through social learning. Our findings have two main implications: (i) tradition repertoires could be larger than assumed from previous studies using the exclusion method; (ii) the relative use of universal behavior variants can reinforce community membership