Are probabilities overweighted or underweighted when rare outcomes are experienced (rarely)?

When making decisions involving risky outcomes on the basis of verbal descriptions of the outcomes and their associated probabilities, people behave as if they overweight small probabilities. In contrast, when the same outcomes are instead experienced in a series of samples, people behave as if they underweight small probabilities. We present two experiments showing that the existing explanations of the underweighting observed in decisions from experience are not sufficient to account for the effect. Underweighting was observed when participants experienced representative samples of events, so it cannot be attributed to undersampling of the small probabilities. In addition, earlier samples predicted decisions just as well as later samples did, so underweighting cannot be attributed to recency weighting. Finally, frequency judgments were accurate, so underweighting cannot be attributed to judgment error. Furthermore, we show that the underweighting of small probabilities is also reflected in the best-fitting parameter values obtained when prospect theory, the dominant model of risky choice, is applied to the data

No equity, no triple aim: strategic proposals to advance health equity in a volatile policy environment

Health professionals, including social workers, community health workers, public health workers, and licensed health care providers, share common interests and responsibilities in promoting health equity and improving social determinants of health—the conditions in which we live, work, play, and learn. This article summarizes underlying causes of health inequity and comparatively poor health outcomes in the U.S. It describes barriers to realizing the hope embedded in the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act that moving away from fee-for-service payments will naturally drive care upstream as providers respond to greater financial risk for the health of their patients by undertaking greater prevention efforts. The article asserts that health equity should serve as the guiding framework for achieving the Triple Aim of health care reform. It outlines practical opportunities for improving care and for promoting stronger efforts to address social determinants of health. These proposals include developing a dashboard of measures to assist providers committed to health equity and community-based prevention and to promote institutional accountability for addressing socio-economic factors that influence health

A Framework for Descriptive Epidemiology

In this paper, we propose a framework for thinking through the design and conduct of descriptive epidemiologic studies. A well-defined descriptive question aims to quantify and characterize some feature of the health of a population and must clearly state: 1) the target population, characterized by person and place, and anchored in time; 2) the outcome, event, or health state or characteristic; and 3) the measure of occurrence that will be used to summarize the outcome (e.g., incidence, prevalence, average time to event, etc.). Additionally, 4) any auxiliary variables will be prespecified and their roles as stratification factors (to characterize the outcome distribution) or nuisance variables (to be standardized over) will be stated. We illustrate application of this framework to describe the prevalence of viral suppression on December 31, 2019, among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who had been linked to HIV care in the United States. Application of this framework highlights biases that may arise from missing data, especially 1) differences between the target population and the analytical sample; 2) measurement error; 3) competing events, late entries, loss to follow-up, and inappropriate interpretation of the chosen measure of outcome occurrence; and 4) inappropriate adjustment

No equity, no triple aim: strategic proposals to advance health equity in a volatile policy environment

Health professionals, including social workers, community health workers, public health workers, and licensed health care providers, share common interests and responsibilities in promoting health equity and improving social determinants of health—the conditions in which we live, work, play, and learn. This article summarizes underlying causes of health inequity and comparatively poor health outcomes in the U.S. It describes barriers to realizing the hope embedded in the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act that moving away from fee-for-service payments will naturally drive care upstream as providers respond to greater financial risk for the health of their patients by undertaking greater prevention efforts. The article asserts that health equity should serve as the guiding framework for achieving the Triple Aim of health care reform. It outlines practical opportunities for improving care and for promoting stronger efforts to address social determinants of health. These proposals include developing a dashboard of measures to assist providers committed to health equity and community-based prevention and to promote institutional accountability for addressing socio-economic factors that influence health

The wandering brain: Meta-analysis of functional neuroimaging studies of mind-wandering and related spontaneous thought processes

AbstractThe neural basis and cognitive functions of various spontaneous thought processes, particularly mind-wandering, are increasingly being investigated. Although strong links have been drawn between the occurrence of spontaneous thought processes and activation in brain regions comprising the default mode network (DMN), spontaneous thought also appears to recruit other, non-DMN regions just as consistently. Here we present the first quantitative meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies of spontaneous thought and mind-wandering in order to address the question of their neural correlates. Examining 24 functional neuroimaging studies of spontaneous thought processes, we conducted a meta-analysis using activation likelihood estimation (ALE). A number of key DMN areas showed consistent recruitment across studies, including medial prefrontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, medial temporal lobe, and bilateral inferior parietal lobule. Numerous non-DMN regions, however, were also consistently recruited, including rostrolateral prefrontal cortex, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, insula, temporopolar cortex, secondary somatosensory cortex, and lingual gyrus. These meta-analytic results indicate that DMN activation alone is insufficient to adequately capture the neural basis of spontaneous thought; frontoparietal control network areas, and other non-DMN regions, appear to be equally central. We conclude that further progress in the cognitive and clinical neuroscience of spontaneous thought will therefore require a re-balancing of our view of the contributions of various regions and networks throughout the brain, and beyond the DMN

Analysing passengers' behaviours when boarding trains to improve rail infrastructure and technology

Concentrated boarding describes the phenomenon when rail passengers congregate in certain areas of the platform and board the train carriages that stop near these areas. This influences the distribution of passengers throughout the carriages, which can negatively affect passenger comfort, safety at the platform-train interface, efficiency of the rail network, and the reputation of rail travel as a whole. This project aimed to determine whether concentrated boarding occurs in stations in the UK in order to understand its relevance for future rolling stock, infrastructure design and its associated manufacturing research. Video recording technology was used to observe the movements of passengers in Oxford Station and data was collected for nine individual trains. By reviewing the recordings, the number of passengers boarding through each door of the trains was determined, and the boarding distribution along the length of the platform was plotted. Several reasons for noted trends are offered, and potential solutions proposed. The use of real time information could be invaluable to minimise concentrated boarding, as it would allow passengers to make informed decisions as to where they could board trains to have a better journey experience. These findings indicate the relevance of a human-centred design process, particularly the user research stages, in the process of defining priorities for manufacturing and engineering

From Brain to Behaviour: A Latent Variable Study of Event-Related Potentials and Executive Functions in Children

Background: Executive functions (EFs) are commonly theorised to be related yet separable constructs in adults, and specific EFs, such as prepotent response inhibition and working memory, are thought to have clear and distinct neural underpinnings. However, recent evidence suggests that EFs are unitary in children up to about 9 years of age. The aim of the current study was to test the hypothesis that event-related potential (ERP) components of individual EFs are related to behavioural performance, despite EFs being psychometrically indistinguishable in children. Specifically, P3b ERP (associated with updating of working memory), N2 ERP, and N2 difference waveform (both associated with inhibition) latent variables were created and entered into confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation models with a unitary executive functioning factor. Methods: Children aged 7-9 years (N = 215) completed eight measures of inhibition, working memory, and shifting. A modified flanker task was also completed during which EEG data were recorded. Results: The P3b ERP and the N2 difference waveform factors both significantly correlated with (and were predictors of) the executive functioning factor; however, the N2 ERP factor was not. Discussion: These results provide support for the utility of ERPs as a counterpoint to psychometric measures of executive functioning, and, more broadly, for the relationship between brain and behaviour

Scaling anomaly in cosmic string background

We show that the classical scale symmetry of a particle moving in cosmic string background is broken upon inequivalent quantization of the classical system, leading to anomaly. The consequence of this anomaly is the formation of single bound state in the coupling interval \gamma\in(-1,1). The inequivalent quantization is characterized by a 1-parameter family of self-adjoint extension parameter \omega. It has been conjectured that the formation of loosely bound state in cosmic string background may lead to the so called anomalous scattering cross section for the particles, which is usually seen in molecular physics.Comment: 4 pages,1 figur