Is Social Psychology Really Different?

Gergen (1976), outlines a number of problems that make it difficult to apply general social psychological the ories, or to assess their validity unequivocally. These dif ficulties are not unique to social psychology, however. The application of general scientific principles has never been a simple matter, not even in the well-established physical sci ences. Moreover, there are formidable difficulties in asses sing general theoretical propositions in every field of in quiry, since empirical procedures will inevitably depend on assumptions about local field conditions, the adequacy of meas urement techniques, and the like. As a consequence, if re sults are inconsistent with theoretical expectations, there will always be some uncertainty as to where the problem lies. Social psychologists should not assume that their difficulties are totally unlike those encountered in other fields of sci entific inquiry. The problems raised by Gergen do not, con sequently, rule out the possible development and application of general social psychological theories.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/69124/2/10.1177_014616727600200417.pd

Probabilistic forecasts of storm sudden commencements from interplanetary shocks using machine learning

In this study we investigate the ability of several different machine learning models to provide probabilistic predictions as to whether interplanetary shocks observed upstream of the Earth at L1 will lead to immediate (Sudden Commencements, SCs) or longer lasting magnetospheric activity (Storm Sudden Commencements, SSCs). Four models are tested including linear (Logistic Regression), non‐linear (Naive Bayes and Gaussian Process) and ensemble (Random Forest) models, and are shown to provide skillful and reliable forecasts of SCs with Brier Skill Scores (BSSs) of ~ 0:3 and ROC scores > 0:8. The most powerful predictive parameter is found to be the range in the interplanetary magnetic field. The models also produce skillful forecasts of SSCs, though with less reliability than was found for SCs. The BSSs and ROC scores returned are ~0:21 and 0.82 respectively. The most important parameter for these predictions was found to be the minimum observed BZ. The simple parameterization of the shock was tested by including additional features related to magnetospheric indices and their changes during shock impact, resulting in moderate increases in reliability. Several parameters, such as velocity and density, may be able to be more accurately predicted at a longer lead time, e.g. from heliospheric imagery. When the input was limited to the velocity and density the models were found to perform well at forecasting SSCs, though with lower reliability than previously (BSSs ~ 0:16, ROC Scores ~ 0:8), Finally, the models were tested with hypothetical extreme data beyond current observations, showing dramatically different extrapolations

Evaluating auroral forecasts against satellite observations

The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members of the public. However, the aurora and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground-based infrastructure, and high-altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval is therefore a key component of space weather forecast operations. A version of the OVATION-Prime 2013 auroral precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056) was used by the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The operational implementation of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model at the UK Met Office delivered a 30-min forecast of the location of the auroral oval and the probability of observing the aurora. Using weather forecast evaluation techniques, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model forecasts to predict the location and probability of the aurora occurring by comparing the forecasts with auroral boundaries determined from data from the IMAGE satellite between 2000 and 2002. Our analysis shows that the operational model performs well at predicting the location of the auroral oval, with a relative operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.82. The model performance is reduced in the dayside local time sectors (ROC score = 0.59) and during periods of higher geomagnetic activity (ROC score of 0.55 for Kp = 8). As a probabilistic forecast, OVATION-Prime 2013 tends to underpredict the occurrence of aurora by a factor of 1.1–6, while probabilities of over 90% are overpredicted

Protic plastic crystal/PVDF composite membranes for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells under non-humidified conditions

Composite membranes based on the protic plastic crystal N,N-dimethylethylenediammonium triflate [DMEDAH][TFO] and poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) nanofibers have been developed for proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) under non-humidified conditions. The effect of addition of 5 mol% triflic acid or 5 mol% of the base N,N-dimethylethylenediamine on the thermal and transport properties of the material is discussed. The acid-doped plastic crystal reports more than double the ionic conductivity of the pure plastic crystal. The effects of doping the plastic crystal and the composites, with acid or base, on the ionic conductivity and fuel cell performance are reported. Composite membranes based on PVDF nanofibers and [DMEDAH][TFO] were tested in a single PEMFC. The results show the potential of these composite membranes to be used as electrolytes in this electrochemical application without external humidification.The authors acknowledge funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) through its Centre of Excellence program, through the Australian Laureate Fellowship scheme for D.R.M and M.F, and Discovery Project DP140101535. In addition, M.D., A.O. and I.O acknowledge Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for the project CTQ2015-66078-R (MINECO/FEDER, UE). M. D. is grateful to the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport for the FPU2012-3721

Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations Under Different Levels of Geomagnetic Activity

The aurora and associated high energy particles and currents pose a space weather hazard to communication networks and ground-based infrastructure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval forms an integral component of daily space weather operations. We evaluate a version of the OVATION-Prime 2013 auroral forecast model that was implemented for operational use at the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Cent. Building on our earlier studies, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model to predict the location of the auroral oval in all latitude and local time sectors under different levels of geomagnetic activity, defined by Kp. We compare the model predictions against auroral boundaries determined from IMAGE FUV data. Our analysis shows that the model performs well at predicting the equatorward extent of the auroral oval, particularly as the equatorward auroral boundary expands to lower latitudes for increasing Kp levels. The model performance is reduced in the high latitude region near the poleward auroral boundary, particularly in the nightside sectors where the model does not accurately capture the expansion and contraction of the polar cap as the open flux content of the magnetosphere changes. For increasing levels of geomagnetic activity (Kp ≥ 3), the performance of the model decreases, with the poleward edge of the auroral oval typically observed at lower latitudes than forecast. As such, the forecast poleward edge of the auroral oval is less reliable during more active and hazardous intervals

The differential diagnosis of chronic daily headaches: an algorithm-based approach

Chronic daily headaches (CDHs) refers to primary headaches that happen on at least 15 days per month, for 4 or more hours per day, for at least three consecutive months. The differential diagnosis of CDHs is challenging and should proceed in an orderly fashion. The approach begins with a search for “red flags” that suggest the possibility of a secondary headache. If secondary headaches that mimic CDHs are excluded, either on clinical grounds or through investigation, the next step is to classify the headaches based on the duration of attacks. If the attacks last less than 4 hours per day, a trigeminal autonomic cephalalgia (TAC) is likely. TACs include episodic and chronic cluster headache, episodic and chronic paroxysmal hemicrania, SUNCT, and hypnic headache. If the duration is ≥4 h, a CDH is likely and the differential diagnosis encompasses chronic migraine, chronic tension-type headache, new daily persistent headache and hemicrania continua. The clinical approach to diagnosing CDH is the scope of this review