Modeling stand-level mortality based on maximum stem number and seasonal temperature

Mortality is a key process in forest stand dynamics. However, tree mortality is not well understood, particularly in relation to climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to: (i) determine the patterns of maximum stem number per ha (MSN) over dominant tree height from 5-year remeasurements of the permanent sample plots for temperate forests [Red pine (Pinus densiflora), Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi), Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), Chinese cork oak (Quercus variabilis), and Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica)] using Sterba’s theory and Korean National Forest Inventory (NFI) data, (ii) develop a stand-level mortality (self-thinning) model using the MSN curve, and (iii) assess the impact of temperature on tree mortality in semi-variogram and linear regression models. The MSN curve represents the upper boundary of observed stem numbers per ha. The developed mortality model with our results showed a high degree of reliability (R2 = 0.55–0.81) and no obvious dependencies or patterns in residuals. However, spatial autocorrelation was detected from residuals of coniferous species (Red pine, Japanese larch and Korean pine), but not for oak species (Chinese cork oak and Mongolian oak). Based on the linear regression analysis of residuals, we found that the mortality of coniferous forests tended to increase with the rising seasonal temperature. This is more evident during winter and spring months. Conversely, oak mortality did not significantly vary with increasing temperature. These findings indicate that enhanced tree mortality due to rising temperatures in response to climate change is possible, especially in coniferous forests, and is expected to contribute to forest management decisions

Global and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Neutrality

This report gives an overview of the literature on greenhouse gas emissions neutrality, as targeted in the Paris Agreement to achieve a ‘balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century’. It presents additional scenario analysis, focusing on the global and regional decarbonisation implications of phasing out greenhouse gas emissions, as seen in 2 °C scenarios. It further explores the implications of these scenarios for changes in land use

Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation

Potential scenarios for the forest bioeconomy are heavily reliant on price assumptions; in particular, any abrupt changes in prices have a profound impact the relevancy of any sector analysis. The objective of this paper was to demonstrate a new forest sector approach for incorporating price uncertainties in order to improve our assessment of investment decision making alternatives. Methodologically, we linked a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (mGARCH (1,1)) with three global land use scenarios that are of strategic importance to the forest bioeconomy. The three scenarios were formulated as i) a business as usual scenario, ii) a high biomass usage scenario and iii) a no-growth scenario. Our results indicate an upward trend in prices over time for all three scenarios and for most woody biomass commodities. Under all scenarios, price volatility in the forest sector would be smaller than that for the fossil fuel energy (i.e. oil and natural gas). Price volatilities from fossil fuel markets are positively influencing woody biomass price volatility and positively influencing pulp volatility. These results are discussed in the context of a case study describing investment alternatives for a district heating facility with options for: woody biomass, natural gas, or heating oil

CRY2 Is Associated with Depression

Abnormalities in the circadian clockwork often characterize patients with major depressive and bipolar disorders. Circadian clock genes are targets of interest in these patients. CRY2 is a circadian gene that participates in regulation of the evening oscillator. This is of interest in mood disorders where a lack of switch from evening to morning oscillators has been postulated.We observed a marked diurnal variation in human CRY2 mRNA levels from peripheral blood mononuclear cells and a significant up-regulation (P = 0.020) following one-night total sleep deprivation, a known antidepressant. In depressed bipolar patients, levels of CRY2 mRNA were decreased (P = 0.029) and a complete lack of increase was observed following sleep deprivation. To investigate a possible genetic contribution, we undertook SNP genotyping of the CRY2 gene in two independent population-based samples from Sweden (118 cases and 1011 controls) and Finland (86 cases and 1096 controls). The CRY2 gene was significantly associated with winter depression in both samples (haplotype analysis in Swedish and Finnish samples: OR = 1.8, P = 0.0059 and OR = 1.8, P = 0.00044, respectively).We propose that a CRY2 locus is associated with vulnerability for depression, and that mechanisms of action involve dysregulation of CRY2 expression

Mutation screening of patients with Alzheimer disease identifies APP locus duplication in a Swedish patient

BACKGROUND: Missense mutations in three different genes encoding amyloid-β precursor protein, presenilin 1 and presenilin 2 are recognized to cause familial early-onset Alzheimer disease. Also duplications of the amyloid precursor protein gene have been shown to cause the disease. At the Dept. of Geriatric Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden, patients are referred for mutation screening for the identification of nucleotide variations and for determining copy-number of the APP locus. METHODS: We combined the method of microsatellite marker genotyping with a quantitative real-time PCR analysis to detect duplications in patients with Alzheimer disease. RESULTS: In 22 DNA samples from individuals diagnosed with clinical Alzheimer disease, we identified one patient carrying a duplication on chromosome 21 which included the APP locus. Further mapping of the chromosomal region by array-comparative genome hybridization showed that the duplication spanned a maximal region of 1.09 Mb. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report of an APP duplication in a Swedish Alzheimer patient and describes the use of quantitative real-time PCR as a tool for determining copy-number of the APP locus