Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice and incidence of type 2 diabetes: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimation of population attributable fraction.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prospective associations between consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice with type 2 diabetes before and after adjustment for adiposity, and to estimate the population attributable fraction for type 2 diabetes from consumption of sugar sweetened beverages in the United States and United Kingdom. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY: PubMed, Embase, Ovid, and Web of Knowledge for prospective studies of adults without diabetes, published until February 2014. The population attributable fraction was estimated in national surveys in the USA, 2009-10 (n=4729 representing 189.1 million adults without diabetes) and the UK, 2008-12 (n=1932 representing 44.7 million). SYNTHESIS METHODS: Random effects meta-analysis and survey analysis for population attributable fraction associated with consumption of sugar sweetened beverages. RESULTS: Prespecified information was extracted from 17 cohorts (38,253 cases/10,126,754 person years). Higher consumption of sugar sweetened beverages was associated with a greater incidence of type 2 diabetes, by 18% per one serving/day (95% confidence interval 9% to 28%, I(2) for heterogeneity=89%) and 13% (6% to 21%, I(2)=79%) before and after adjustment for adiposity; for artificially sweetened beverages, 25% (18% to 33%, I(2)=70%) and 8% (2% to 15%, I(2)=64%); and for fruit juice, 5% (-1% to 11%, I(2)=58%) and 7% (1% to 14%, I(2)=51%). Potential sources of heterogeneity or bias were not evident for sugar sweetened beverages. For artificially sweetened beverages, publication bias and residual confounding were indicated. For fruit juice the finding was non-significant in studies ascertaining type 2 diabetes objectively (P for heterogeneity=0.008). Under specified assumptions for population attributable fraction, of 20.9 million events of type 2 diabetes predicted to occur over 10 years in the USA (absolute event rate 11.0%), 1.8 million would be attributable to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (population attributable fraction 8.7%, 95% confidence interval 3.9% to 12.9%); and of 2.6 million events in the UK (absolute event rate 5.8%), 79,000 would be attributable to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (population attributable fraction 3.6%, 1.7% to 5.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Habitual consumption of sugar sweetened beverages was associated with a greater incidence of type 2 diabetes, independently of adiposity. Although artificially sweetened beverages and fruit juice also showed positive associations with incidence of type 2 diabetes, the findings were likely to involve bias. None the less, both artificially sweetened beverages and fruit juice were unlikely to be healthy alternatives to sugar sweetened beverages for the prevention of type 2 diabetes. Under assumption of causality, consumption of sugar sweetened beverages over years may be related to a substantial number of cases of new onset diabetes

Epidemiology of diabetes.

The disease burden related to diabetes is high and rising in every country, fuelled by the global rise in the prevalence of obesity and unhealthy lifestyles. The latest estimates show a global prevalence of 382 million people with diabetes in 2013, expected to rise to 592 million by 2035. The aetiological classification of diabetes has now been widely accepted. Type 1 and type 2 diabetes are the two main types, with type 2 diabetes accounting for the majority (>85%) of total diabetes prevalence. Both forms of diabetes can lead to multisystem complications of microvascular endpoints, including retinopathy, nephropathy and neuropathy, and macrovascular endpoints including ischaemic heart disease, stroke and peripheral vascular disease. The premature morbidity, mortality, reduced life expectancy and financial and other costs of diabetes make it an important public health condition.NGF and NJW acknowledge support from the core Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit Programmes ( MC_UU_12015/5 and MC_UU_12015/1 ).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mpmed.2014.09.00

The EPIC-InterAct Study: A Study of the Interplay between Genetic and Lifestyle Behavioral Factors on the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in European Populations.

The rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes around the world and the global pattern of variation in risk between countries have been widely attributed to an interplay between rising rates of obesity and poor lifestyles, and genetic or developmental susceptibility to disease. Although this general hypothesis has been in existence for more than 50 years, the precise mechanisms that may explain it have remained uncertain. Advances in technology and the application of new methods in large scale population studies have made it possible to study these mechanisms. The InterAct project, funded by the European Commission, is a large case-cohort study which has verified 12,403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, facilitating the study of genetic and lifestyle factors on the risk of type 2 diabetes among European populations.This is the final version. It was first published by Springer in Current Nutrition Reports at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4218968

Thigh fat and muscle each contribute to excess cardiometabolic risk in South Asians, independent of visceral adipose tissue.

OBJECTIVE: To compare fat distribution and associations between fat depots and cardiometabolic traits in South Asians and Europeans. METHODS: Five hundred and fourteen South Asians and 669 Europeans, aged 56-86. Questionnaires, record review, blood testing, and coronary artery calcification scores provided diabetes and clinical plus subclinical coronary heart disease (CHD) diagnoses. Abdominal visceral (VAT) and subcutaneous adipose tissue, thigh subcutaneous adipose tissue (TSAT), intermuscular and intramuscular thigh fat and thigh muscle were measured by CT. RESULTS: Accounting for body size, South Asians had greater VAT and TSAT than Europeans, but less thigh muscle. Associations between depots and disease were stronger in South Asians than Europeans. In multivariable analyses in South Asians, VAT was positively associated with diabetes and CHD, while TSAT and thigh muscle were protective for diabetes, and thigh muscle for CHD. Differences in VAT and thigh muscle only partially explained the excess diabetes and CHD in South Asians versus Europeans. Insulin resistance did not account for the effects of TSAT or thigh muscle. CONCLUSIONS: Greater VAT and TSAT and lesser thigh muscle in South Asians contributed to ethnic differences in cardiometabolic disease. Effects of TSAT and thigh muscle were independent of insulin resistance

Diabetes and tuberculosis: the impact of the diabetes epidemic on tuberculosis incidence.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and in these countries diabetes prevalence is increasing rapidly. Diabetes increases the risk of TB. Our aim was to assess the potential impact of diabetes as a risk factor for incident pulmonary tuberculosis, using India as an example. METHODS: We constructed an epidemiological model using data on tuberculosis incidence, diabetes prevalence, population structure, and relative risk of tuberculosis associated with diabetes. We evaluated the contribution made by diabetes to both tuberculosis incidence, and to the difference between tuberculosis incidence in urban and rural areas. RESULTS: In India in 2000 there were an estimated 20.7 million adults with diabetes, and 900,000 incident adult cases of pulmonary tuberculosis. Our calculations suggest that diabetes accounts for 14.8% (uncertainty range 7.1% to 23.8%) of pulmonary tuberculosis and 20.2% (8.3% to 41.9%) of smear-positive (i.e. infectious) tuberculosis. We estimate that the increased diabetes prevalence in urban areas is associated with a 15.2% greater smear-positive tuberculosis incidence in urban than rural areas - over a fifth of the estimated total difference. CONCLUSION: Diabetes makes a substantial contribution to the burden of incident tuberculosis in India, and the association is particularly strong for the infectious form of tuberculosis. The current diabetes epidemic may lead to a resurgence of tuberculosis in endemic regions, especially in urban areas. This potentially carries a risk of global spread with serious implications for tuberculosis control and the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals

Ethnicity-specific obesity cut-points in the development of Type 2 diabetes - a prospective study including three ethnic groups in the United Kingdom

Aims: Conventional definitions of obesity, e.g. body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2 or waist circumference cut-points of 102 cm (men) and 88 cm (women), may underestimate metabolic risk in non-Europeans. We prospectively identified equivalent ethnicity-specific obesity cut-points for the estimation of diabetes risk in British South Asians, African-Caribbeans and Europeans. Methods: We studied a population-based cohort from London, UK (1356 Europeans, 842 South Asians, 335 African-Caribbeans) who were aged 40–69 years at baseline (1988–1991), when they underwent anthropometry, fasting and post-load (75 g oral glucose tolerance test) blood tests. Incident Type 2 diabetes was identified from primary care records, participant recall and/or follow-up biochemistry. Ethnicity-specific obesity cut-points in association with diabetes incidence were estimated using negative binomial regression. Results: Diabetes incidence rates (per 1000 person years) at a median follow-up of 19 years were 20.8 (95% CI: 18.4, 23.6) and 12.0 (8.3, 17.2) in South Asian men and women, 16.5 (12.7, 21.4) and 17.5 (13.0, 23.7) in African-Caribbean men and women, and 7.4 (6.3, 8.7), and 7.2 (5.3, 9.8) in European men and women. For incidence rates equivalent to those at a BMI of 30 kg/m2 in European men and women, age- and sex-adjusted cut-points were: South Asians, 25.2 (23.4, 26.6) kg/m2; and African-Caribbeans, 27.2 (25.2, 28.6) kg/m2. For South Asian and African-Caribbean men, respectively, waist circumference cut-points of 90.4 (85.0, 94.5) and 90.6 (85.0, 94.5) cm were equivalent to a value of 102 cm in European men. Waist circumference cut-points of 84.0 (74.0, 90.0) cm in South Asian women and 81.2 (71.4, 87.4) cm in African-Caribbean women were equivalent to a value of 88 cm in European women. Conclusions: In prospective analyses, British South Asians and African-Caribbeans had equivalent diabetes incidence rates at substantially lower obesity levels than the conventional European cut-points

Fish consumption in relation to myocardial infarction, stroke and mortality among women and men with type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study

\textit{Background & aims:} The accumulated evidence supports an inverse association of fish consumption with cardiovascular disease and mortality, but data among patients with type 2 diabetes are sparse. We aimed to assess fish consumption in relation to myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and mortality among individuals with type 2 diabetes. $\textit{Methods:}$ Women and men with diagnosed type 2 diabetes (n = 2225; aged 45-84 years) within two population-based cohorts (the Swedish Mammography Cohort and the Cohort of Swedish Men) were followed from 1998 through 2012. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). $\textit{Results:}$ We identified 333 incident MI events, 321 incident stroke events and 771 deaths (154 with coronary heart disease [CHD] as underlying cause) during follow-up of up to 15 years. The multivariable HRs comparing >3 servings/week with $\leq$3 servings/month were 0.60 (95% CI, 0.39-0.92) for MI and 1.04 (95% CI, 0.66-1.64) for stroke. HRs for total mortality were lowest for moderate fish consumption of 1-<2 servings/week (0.82; 95% CI, 0.64-1.04) and 2-3 servings/week (0.79; 95% CI, 0.61-1.01) compared with $\leq$3 servings/month. The corresponding HRs for CHD-related mortality were 0.53; 95% CI, 0.32-0.90 and 0.75; 95% CI, 0.45-1.27. $\textit{Conclusions:}$ Fish consumption was associated with lower MI incidence among individuals with type 2 diabetes, whereas no association was observed with stroke. Our data further indicated an association with lower mortality, particularly for CHD-related deaths. These findings support the current general advice on regular fish consumption also in the high risk group of type 2 diabetes patients.This work was supported by research grants from the Swedish Research Council/Committee for Research Infrastructure, from the Karolinska Institutet's Award for PhD students (KID-funding). NGF is supported by MRC support from MC_UU_12015/5

Ethnic Differences in Disability Prevalence and Their Determinants Studied over a 20-Year Period: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: To compare disability prevalence rates in the major ethnic groups in the UK and understand the risk factors contributing to differences identified. It was hypothesised that Indian Asian and African Caribbean people would experience higher rates of disability compared with Europeans. METHODS: Data was collected from 888 European, 636 Indian Asian and 265 African Caribbean men and women, aged 58-88 years at 20-year follow-up of community-based cohort study, based in West London. Disability was measured using a performance-based locomotor function test and self-reported questionnaires on functional limitation, and instrumental (IADL) and basic activities of daily living (ADL). RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of participants at follow-up was 69.6 (6.2) years. Compared with Europeans, Indian Asian people were significantly more likely to experience all of the disability outcomes than Europeans; this persisted after adjustment for socioeconomic, behavioural, adiposity and chronic disease risk factors measured at baseline (locomotor dysfunction: adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.20, 95% CI 1.56-3.11; functional limitation: OR 2.77, 2.01-3.81; IADL impairment: OR 3.12, 2.20-4.41; ADL impairment: OR 1.58, 1.11-2.24). In contrast, a modest excess risk of disability was observed in African Caribbeans, which was abolished after adjustment (e.g. locomotor dysfunction: OR 1.37, 0.90-1.91); indeed a reduced risk of ADL impairment appeared after multivariable adjustment (OR from 0.99, 0.68-1.45 to 0.59, 0.38-0.93), compared with Europeans. CONCLUSIONS: Substantially elevated risk of disability was observed among Indian Asian participants, unexplained by known factors. A greater understanding of determinants of disability and normative functional beliefs of healthy aging is required in this population to inform intervention efforts to prevent disability

Persistent financial hardship, 11-year weight gain, and health behaviors in the Whitehall II study.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain prospectively gender-specific associations between types and amounts of financial hardship and weight gain, and investigate potential behavioral mechanisms. METHODS: Prospective study of 3701 adult British civil servants with repeated measures of difficulty paying bills or insufficient money to afford adequate for food/clothing (1985-1988; 1989-1990; 1991-1993; 1997-1999), and weight (1985-1988; 1997-1999). RESULTS: Persistent hardships were associated with adjusted mean weight change in women over 10.9 years, but no consistent pattern was seen in men. During follow-up, 46% of women gained ≥5 kg. Women reporting persistent insufficient money for food/clothing had a significantly greater odds of gaining ≥5 kg (1.42 [1.05, 1.92]) compared to no hardship history, which remained after socioeconomic status (SES) adjustment (1.45 [1.05, 2.01]). The association between persistent difficulty paying bills and odds of excess weight gain was also significant (1.42 [1.03, 1.97]) but attenuated after considering SES (1.39 [0.98, 1.97]). Four health behaviors as single measures or change variables did not attenuate associations. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggested strategies to tackle obesity must address employed women's everyday financial troubles which may influence weight through more biological pathways than classical correlates of economic disadvantage and weight.This is the final version, originally published in the journal Obesity here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/oby.20875/abstract;jsessionid=EDA4F761217B492D16E7384EB67A7399.f02t02