Optimal International Diversification: Theory and Practice from a Swiss Investor’s Perspective

This paper reviews some recent developments in the area of optimal international portfolio diversification and investigates important issues for future research. In the latest models proposed in the financial literature that generate optimal holdings over time, both the quantities of risks (measured by the covariances with various risk factors) and the prices of risk(risk premiums) are time varying. The former are generally specified by some ARCH process, whereas the latter are estimated using instruments such as dividend yield or bond premiums. Available methodologies and the choice of the instruments are discusses in general terms,as weel as the feasibility of active managemant with these models. I test a few of them by considering a Swiss investor who holds an internationally diversified portfolio including local stock indices, as well as an exposure to real estate, and wo may hedge some or all of his currency risk. the empirical tests are performed using a very intuitive and powerful non-parametric threshold ARCH specification to model time-varying sources of risk. Risk premiums are estimated using simple and widely available instruments in the form of macroeconomic variables, but also indicators used in technical analysis. Both the in-sample and the out-of-sample results suggest that the proposed nan-parametric approach is powerful and may constitute a valuable tool for international portfolio managers.Swiss institutional investors, mixed-asset portfolios, conditional asset allocation, hedging currency risk, QTARCH model, international portfolios, foreign exchange forecasting.

Systematic Patterns Before and After Large Price Changes: Evidence from High Frequency Data from the Paris Bourse

: This paper examines the intra-day behavior of asset prices shortly before and after large price changes. Whereas similar studies so far have been based on daily closing price, I use three years of high frequency data of 120 stocks listed on the French stock exchange. Various systematic patterns, in addition to those often reported in the literature, emerge from this data. I find evidence that prices do overreact and that a correction takes place after a large price movement, especially those to the downside. The correction does not take place immediately after the large price change. Prior to this, some very significant and sometimes economically important patterns can be observed. When the bid-ask spread is taken into account, I still find some ex-post profitable trading strategies which are too small in magnitude to suggest market inefficiency.predictable pattern; large price change; high frequency data

Maximum Drawdown and the Allocation to Real Estate

We investigate the role of real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio when the maximum drawdown (hereafter MaxDD), rather than the standard deviation, is used as the measure of risk. In particular, we analyse whether the discrepancy between the optimal allocation to real estate and the actual allocation by institutional investors is less when a Return/MaxDD framework is used. The empirical analysis is conducted from the perspective of a Swiss investor using international data for the period 1979-2002. We show that most portfolios optimised in Return/MaxDD space, rather than in Return/Standard Deviation space, yield a much lower MaxDD, while only a slightly higher standard deviation (for the same level of return). The reduction in MaxDD is highest for portfolios situated half-way on the efficient frontier, typically close to those held by pension funds. Also, the reported weights for real estate are much more in line with the actual weights to real estate by institutional investors.Maximum Drawdown, Downside Risk, Portfolio Diversification, Real Estate

Systematic Patterns Before and After Large Price Changes: Evidence from High Frequency Data from the Paris Bourse

This paper examines the intra-day behavior of asset prices shortly before and after large price changes. Whereas similar studies so far have been based on daily closing prices, I use three years of high frequency data of 120 stocks listed on the French stock exchange. Various systematic patterns, in addition to those often reported in the literature, emerge from this data. Evidence is found that prices do overreact and that a correction takes place after large price movements, especially those on the downside. The correction does not take place immediately after the large price change. Prior to this, some very significant and sometimes economically important patterns can be observed. When the bid-ask spread is taken into account, I still find some ex-post profitable trading strategies that are, however, too small in magnitude to suggest market inefficiency.predictable patterns; large price changes; high frequency data.

What Factors Determine International Real Estate Security Returns?

We use constrained cross-section regressions to disentangle the effects of various factors on international real estate security returns. Besides a common factor, pure country, property type, size, and value/growth factors are considered. The value/growth measure that is used in this paper provides for each security the relative importance of the value and growth components, rather than a binary classification. The value/growth factor is found to be volatile and to have a substantial effect on returns over the analyzed period February 1990-April 2003. Country factors are the dominant factors, and size is shown to have a negative impact on returns. Statistical factors derived by means of cluster analysis explain about one third of specific returns on international real estate securities. The implication for portfolio managers is that failing to recognize the importance of the various factors leads to the portfolio being exposed to systematic risk.securitized real estate, international diversification, multi-factor model, value/growth

Country, Sector or Style: What Matters Most When Constructing Global Equity Portfolios? An Empirical Investigation from 1990-2001

Equity returns are believed to be strongly influenced by country, sector and style effects. A key issue is to be able to disentangle those various effects from one another. In particular, differences between country returns may simply reflect differences in the sector composition of country markets, which makes it clearly difficult to disassociate both effects. Similarly, from 1999-2001 the relative perfor-mance of Growth versus Value might be solely due to the striking performance of the Technology and Telecommunication sectors. For global equity portfolio man-agers, it is crucial to identify which factors offer the highest diversification benefits and return potential. We apply a multi-factor approach to estimate ”pure” coun-try, sector and style factor returns. Using data going back to 1990, we identify the major changes that have occurred in developed markets until 2001. Our various indicators clearly point out the growing influence of sector factors. However, coun-try effects remain important and there is no clear-cut evidence that sector factors dominate country factors. Style factors such as Growth, Value and Size also remain significant, even once sector and country effects are deduced. Finally, we show that momentum strategies based on sector returns offer substantial gains, while momen-tum strategies based on country returns do not. These findings suggest that, while diversification and return benefits from sector strategies have become substantial, managers should continue to monitor carefully country as well as style rewards and risks.

What factors determine international real estate security returns ?

n this paper, we use constrained cross-section regressions to disentangle the effects of various factors on real estate security returns in 21 countries. A better knowledge of the risk factors driving real estate returns is crucial, whether a pure real estate portfolio is contructed, or whether real estate is considered as an alternative asset class within the traditional stock portfolio. Besides a common factor, "pure" country, size, and value/growth factors are considered. The value/growth measure that is used in this paper is a unique indicator developed by Salomon Smith Barney (SSB). It provides for each stock the relative importance of the value and growth components, rather than using a binary classification. The value/growth factor is found to have a substantial and increasing effect on returns over the analyzed period February 1990-April 2002. Country factors are important determinants of real estate security returns also. Statistical analysis of the residuals indicates that additional "hidden" factors most likely exist. These statistical factors are shown to explain about one third of specific returns on international real estate securities. Nevertheless, as is the case for traditional stock portfolios, stock picking keeps all its importance for real estate stocks as well

What Factors Determine International Real Estate Security Returns?

In this paper, we use constrained cross-section regressions to disentangle the effects of various factors on real estate security returns in 21 countries. A better knowledge of the risk factors driving real estate returns is crucial, whether a pure real estate portfolio is constructed, or whether real estate is considered as an alternative asset class within the traditional stock portfolio. Besides a common factor, “pure” country, size, and value/growth factors are considered. The value/growth measure that is used in this paper is a unique indicator developed by Salomon Smith Barney (SSB). It provides for each stock the relative importance of the value and growth components, rather than using a binary classification. The value/growth factor is found to have a substantial and increasing effect on returns over the analyzed period February 1990-April 2002. Country factors are important determinants of real estate security returns also. Statistical analysis of the residuals indicates that additional “hidden” factors most likely exist. These statistical factors are shown to explain about one third of specific returns on international real estate securities. Nevertheless, as is the case for traditional stock portfolios, stock picking keeps all its importance for real estate stocks as well.securitized real estate; international diversification; multi-factor model; value/growth