The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

This paper presents an analysis of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology diffusion perspective. Energy markets are driven by innovation, path-dependent technology choices and diffusion. However, conventional optimisation models lack detail on these aspects and have limited ability to address the effectiveness of policy interventions because they do not represent decision-making. As a result, known effects of technology lock-ins are liable to be underestimated. In contrast, our approach places investor decision-making at the core of the analysis and investigates how it drives the diffusion of low-carbon technology in a highly disaggregated, hybrid, global macroeconometric model, FTT:Power-E3MG. Ten scenarios to 2050 of the electricity sector in 21 regions exploring combinations of electricity policy instruments are analysed, including their climate impacts. We show that in a diffusion and path-dependent perspective, the impact of combinations of policies does not correspond to the sum of impacts of individual instruments: synergies exist between policy tools. We argue that the carbon price required to break the current fossil technology lock-in can be much lower when combined with other policies, and that a 90% decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2050 is affordable without early scrapping.This work was supported by the Three Guineas Trust (A. M. Foley), Cambridge Econometrics (H. Pollitt and U. Chewpreecha), Conicyt (Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, Gobierno de Chile) and the Ministerio de Energía, Gobierno de Chile (P. Salas), the EU Seventh Framework Programme grant agreement No 265170 ‘ER-MITAGE’ (N. Edwards and P. Holden) and the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, fellowship number EP/K007254/1 (J.-F. Mercure).This is the final published version. It's also available from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514004017#

Myocardial changes in incident haemodialysis patients over 6-months:an observational cardiac magnetic resonance imaging study

Patients commencing on haemodialysis (HD) have an increased risk of cardiovascular events in the first year after starting HD compared to those patients established on HD longer. Left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy and abnormal myocardial strain predict mortality. There may be changes in the myocardium of incident HD patients over a 6-month period of HD which may explain changes in cardiovascular risk. We used CMR to consider changes in LV mass, myocardial strain and T1 mapping. We examined changes in pre-dialysis highly sensitive troponin T. 33 patients undergoing HD for <12 months were recruited. Participants underwent CMR at baseline and after 6-months of standard care. 6-months of HD was associated with reduction in LV mass index (Baseline: 78.8 g/m2 follow up: 69.9 g/m2, p = <0.001). LV global longitudinal strain also improved (Baseline: −17.9%, follow up: −21.6%, p = <0.001). Change in T1 time was not significant (Baseline septal T1 1277.4 ms, follow up 1271.5 p = 0.504). Highly sensitive troponin T was lower at follow up (Baseline 38.8 pg/L, follow up 30.8 pg/L p = 0.02). In incident HD patients, 6-months of HD was associated with improvements in LV mass, strain and troponin. These findings may reflect improvement in known cardiac tissue abnormalities found in patients over the first year of HD

Validation of a chloroquine-induced cell death mechanism for clinical use against malaria

An alternative antimalarial pathway of an ‘outdated’ drug, chloroquine (CQ), may facilitate its return to the shrinking list of effective antimalarials. Conventionally, CQ is believed to interfere with hemozoin formation at nanomolar concentrations, but resistant parasites are able to efflux this drug from the digestive vacuole (DV). However, we show that the DV membrane of both resistant and sensitive laboratory and field parasites is compromised after exposure to micromolar concentrations of CQ, leading to an extrusion of DV proteases. Furthermore, only a short period of exposure is required to compromise the viability of late-stage parasites. To study the feasibility of this strategy, mice malaria models were used to demonstrate that high doses of CQ also triggered DV permeabilization in vivo and reduced reinvasion efficiency. We suggest that a time-release oral formulation of CQ may sustain elevated blood CQ levels sufficiently to clear even CQ-resistant parasites

Development and Evaluation of a Palliative Medicine Curriculum for Third-Year Medical Students

Abstract Objective: To assess the impact, retention, and magnitude of effect of a required didactic and experiential palliative care curriculum on third-year medical students' knowledge, confidence, and concerns about end-of-life care, over time and in comparison to benchmark data from a national study of internal medicine residents and faculty. Design: Prospective study of third-year medical students prior to and immediately after course completion, with a follow-up assessment in the fourth year, and in comparison to benchmark data from a large national study. Setting: Internal Medicine Clerkship in a public accredited medical school. Participants: Five hundred ninety-three third-year medical students, from July 2002 to December 2007. Main outcome measures: Pre- and postinstruction performance on: knowledge, confidence (self-assessed competence), and concerns (attitudes) about end-of-life care measures, validated in a national study of internal medicine residents and faculty. Medical student's reflective written comments were qualitatively assessed. Intervention: Required 32-hour didactic and experiential curriculum, including home hospice visits and inpatient hospice care, with content drawn from the AMA-sponsored Education for Physicians on End-of-life Care (EPEC) Project. Results: Analysis of 487 paired t tests shows significant improvements, with 23% improvement in knowledge (F1,486=881, p<0.001), 56% improvement in self-reported competence (F1,486=2,804, p<0.001), and 29% decrease in self-reported concern (F1,486=208, p<0.001). Retesting medical students in the fourth year showed a further 5% increase in confidence (p<0.0002), 13% increase in allaying concerns (p<0.0001), but a 6% drop in knowledge. The curriculum's effect size on M3 students' knowledge (0.56) exceeded that of a national cross-sectional study comparing residents at progressive training levels (0.18) Themes identified in students' reflective comments included perceived relevance, humanism, and effectiveness of methods used to teach and assess palliative care education. Conclusions: We conclude that required structured didactic and experiential palliative care during the clinical clerkship year of medical student education shows significant and largely sustained effects indicating students are better prepared than a national sample of residents and attending physicians.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/98455/1/jpm%2E2010%2E0502.pd

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil-fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels.1-4 This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil-fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here we use an integrated global economy environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether new climate policies are adopted or not; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2°C target are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production (‘sell-out’) despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of $1-4tn; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (e.g. net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (e.g. Russia, the US or Canada, which could see their fossil-fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.The authors acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (JFM, fellowship no. EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (JFM, PS, JV, EPSRC grant no EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant no ES/N013174/1), NERC (NRE, PH, HP, grant no NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (PS), the Philomathia Foundation (JV), the Cambridge Humanities Research Grants Scheme (JV), and Horizon 2020 (HP, JFM; Sim4Nexus project)

A Comparative Analysis of Extra-Embryonic Endoderm Cell Lines

Prior to gastrulation in the mouse, all endodermal cells arise from the primitive endoderm of the blastocyst stage embryo. Primitive endoderm and its derivatives are generally referred to as extra-embryonic endoderm (ExEn) because the majority of these cells contribute to extra-embryonic lineages encompassing the visceral endoderm (VE) and the parietal endoderm (PE). During gastrulation, the definitive endoderm (DE) forms by ingression of cells from the epiblast. The DE comprises most of the cells of the gut and its accessory organs. Despite their different origins and fates, there is a surprising amount of overlap in marker expression between the ExEn and DE, making it difficult to distinguish between these cell types by marker analysis. This is significant for two main reasons. First, because endodermal organs, such as the liver and pancreas, play important physiological roles in adult animals, much experimental effort has been directed in recent years toward the establishment of protocols for the efficient derivation of endodermal cell types in vitro. Conversely, factors secreted by the VE play pivotal roles that cannot be attributed to the DE in early axis formation, heart formation and the patterning of the anterior nervous system. Thus, efforts in both of these areas have been hampered by a lack of markers that clearly distinguish between ExEn and DE. To further understand the ExEn we have undertaken a comparative analysis of three ExEn-like cell lines (END2, PYS2 and XEN). PYS2 cells are derived from embryonal carcinomas (EC) of 129 strain mice and have been characterized as parietal endoderm-like [1], END2 cells are derived from P19 ECs and described as visceral endoderm-like, while XEN cells are derived from blastocyst stage embryos and are described as primitive endoderm-like. Our analysis suggests that none of these cell lines represent a bona fide single in vivo lineage. Both PYS2 and XEN cells represent mixed populations expressing markers for several ExEn lineages. Conversely END2 cells, which were previously characterized as VE-like, fail to express many markers that are widely expressed in the VE, but instead express markers for only a subset of the VE, the anterior visceral endoderm. In addition END2 cells also express markers for the PE. We extended these observations with microarray analysis which was used to probe and refine previously published data sets of genes proposed to distinguish between DE and VE. Finally, genome-wide pathway analysis revealed that SMAD-independent TGFbeta signaling through a TAK1/p38/JNK or TAK1/NLK pathway may represent one mode of intracellular signaling shared by all three of these lines, and suggests that factors downstream of these pathways may mediate some functions of the ExEn. These studies represent the first step in the development of XEN cells as a powerful molecular genetic tool to study the endodermal signals that mediate the important developmental functions of the extra-embryonic endoderm. Our data refine our current knowledge of markers that distinguish various subtypes of endoderm. In addition, pathway analysis suggests that the ExEn may mediate some of its functions through a non-classical MAP Kinase signaling pathway downstream of TAK1

Is dignity therapy feasible to enhance the end of life experience for people with motor neurone disease and their family carers?

Background: Development of interventions that address psychosocial and existential distress in people with motor neurone disease (MND) or that alleviate caregiver burden in MND family carers have often been suggested in the research literature. Dignity therapy, which was developed to reduce psychosocial and existential distress at the end of life, has been shown to benefit people dying of cancer and their families. These results may not be transferable to people with MND. The objectives of this study are to assess the feasibility, acceptability and potential effectiveness of dignity therapy to enhance the end of life experience for people with motor neurone disease and their family carers. Methods/design: This is a cross-sectional study utilizing a single treatment group and a pre/post test design. The study population will comprise fifty people diagnosed with MND and their nominated family carers. Primarily quantitative outcomes will be gathered through measures assessed at baseline and at approximately one week after the intervention. Outcomes for participants include hopefulness, spirituality and dignity. Outcomes for family carers include perceived caregiver burden, hopefulness and anxiety/depression. Feedback and satisfaction with the intervention will be gathered through a questionnaire. Discussion: This detailed research will explore if dignity therapy has the potential to enhance the end of life experience for people with MND and their family carers, and fill a gap for professionals who are called on to address the spiritual, existential and psychosocial needs of their MND patients and families

Real-world evidence in a national health service: results of the UK CardioMEMS HF System Post-Market Study

Aims The CardioMEMS HF System Post-Market Study (COAST) was designed to evaluate the safety, effectiveness, and feasibility of haemodynamic-guided heart failure (HF) management using a small sensor implanted in the pulmonary artery of New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class III HF patients in the UK, Europe, and Australia. Methods and results COAST is a prospective, international, multicentre, open-label clinical study (NCT02954341). The primary clinical endpoint compares annualized HF hospitalization rates after 1 year of haemodynamic-guided management vs. the year prior to sensor implantation in patients with NYHA Class III symptoms and a previous HF hospitalization. The primary safety endpoints assess freedom from device/system-related complications and pressure sensor failure after 2 years. Results from the first 100 patients implanted at 14 out of the 15 participating centres in the UK are reported here. At baseline, all patients were in NYHA Class III, 70% were male, mean age was 69 ± 12 years, and 39% had an aetiology of ischaemic cardiomyopathy. The annualized HF hospitalization rate after 12 months was 82% lower [95% confidence interval 72–88%] than the previous 12 months (0.27 vs. 1.52 events/patient-year, respectively, P < 0.0001). Freedom from device/system-related complications and pressure sensor failure at 2 years was 100% and 99%, respectively. Conclusions Remote haemodynamic-guided HF management, using frequent assessment of pulmonary artery pressures, was successfully implemented at 14 specialist centres in the UK. Haemodynamic-guided HF management was safe and significantly reduced hospitalization in a group of high-risk patients. These results support implementation of this innovative remote management strategy to improve outcome for patients with symptomatic HF. Clinical registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02954341

The predominance of Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) circulating recombinant form 02 (CRF02_AG) in West Central Africa may be related to its replicative fitness

BACKGROUND: CRF02_AG is the predominant HIV strain circulating in West and West Central Africa. The aim of this study was to test whether this predominance is associated with a higher in vitro replicative fitness relative to parental subtype A and G viruses. Primary HIV-1 isolates (10 CRF02_AG, 5 subtype A and 5 subtype G) were obtained from a well-described Cameroonian cohort. Growth competition experiments were carried out at equal multiplicity of infection in activated T cells and monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MO-DC) in parallel. RESULTS: Dual infection/competition experiments in activated T cells clearly indicated that CRF02_AG isolates had a significant replication advantage over the subtype A and subtype G viruses. The higher fitness of CRF02_AG was evident for isolates from patients with CD4+ T cell counts >200 cells/μL (non-AIDS) or CD4+ T cell counts <200 cells/μL (AIDS), and was independent of the co-receptor tropism. In MO-DC cultures, CRF02_AG isolates showed a slightly but not significantly higher replication advantage compared to subtype A or G isolates. CONCLUSION: We observed a higher ex vivo replicative fitness of CRF02_AG isolates compared to subtype A and G viruses from the same geographic region and showed that this was independent of the co-receptor tropism and irrespective of high or low CD4+ T cell count. This advantage in replicative fitness may contribute to the dominant spread of CRF02_AG over A and G subtypes in West and West Central Africa