Getting Lucky: How Guessing Threatens the Validity of Performance Classifications

There is always a chance that examinees will answer multiple choice (MC) items correctly by guessing. Design choices in some modern exams have created situations where guessing at random through the full exam—rather than only for a subset of items where the examinee does not know the answer—can be an effective strategy to pass the exam. This paper describes two case studies to illustrate this problem, discusses test development decisions that can help address the situation, and provides recommendations to testing professionals to help identify when guessing at random can be an effective strategy to pass the exam. Accessed 4,501 times on https://pareonline.net from February 10, 2016 to December 31, 2019. For downloads from January 1, 2020 forward, please click on the PlumX Metrics link to the right

Interactive Effects of Racial Identity and Repetitive Head Impacts on Cognitive Function, Structural MRI-Derived Volumetric Measures, and Cerebrospinal Fluid Tau and A beta

Background: Factors of increased prevalence among individuals with Black racial identity (e.g., cardiovascular disease, CVD) may influence the association between exposure to repetitive head impacts (RHI) from American football and later-life neurological outcomes. Here, we tested the interaction between racial identity and RHI on neurobehavioral outcomes, brain volumetric measures, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) total tau (t-tau), phosphorylated tau (p-tau181), and Aβ1–42 in symptomatic former National Football League (NFL) players. Methods: 68 symptomatic male former NFL players (ages 40–69; n = 27 Black, n = 41 White) underwent neuropsychological testing, structural MRI, and lumbar puncture. FreeSurfer derived estimated intracranial volume (eICV), gray matter volume (GMV), white matter volume (WMV), subcortical GMV, hippocampal volume, and white matter (WM) hypointensities. Multivariate generalized linear models examined the main effects of racial identity and its interaction with a cumulative head impact index (CHII) on all outcomes. Age, years of education, Wide Range Achievement Test, Fourth Edition (WRAT-4) scores, CVD risk factors, and APOEε4 were included as covariates; eICV was included for MRI models. P-values were false discovery rate adjusted. Results: Compared to White former NFL players, Black participants were 4 years younger (p = 0.04), had lower WRAT-4 scores (mean difference = 8.03, p = 0.002), and a higher BMI (mean difference = 3.09, p = 0.01) and systolic blood pressure (mean difference = 8.15, p = 0.03). With regards to group differences on the basis of racial identity, compared to White former NFL players, Black participants had lower GMV (mean adjusted difference = 45649.00, p = 0.001), lower right hippocampal volume (mean adjusted difference = 271.96, p = 0.02), and higher p-tau181/t-tau ratio (mean adjusted difference = −0.25, p = 0.01). There was not a statistically significant association between the CHII with GMV, right hippocampal volume, or p-tau181/t-tau ratio. However, there was a statistically significant Race x CHII interaction for GMV (b = 2206.29, p = 0.001), right hippocampal volume (b = 12.07, p = 0.04), and p-tau181/t-tau ratio concentrations (b = −0.01, p = 0.004). Conclusion: Continued research on racial neurological disparities could provide insight into risk factors for long-term neurological disorders associated with American football play

A novel approach of homozygous haplotype sharing identifies candidate genes in autism spectrum disorder

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a highly heritable disorder of complex and heterogeneous aetiology. It is primarily characterized by altered cognitive ability including impaired language and communication skills and fundamental deficits in social reciprocity. Despite some notable successes in neuropsychiatric genetics, overall, the high heritability of ASD (~90%) remains poorly explained by common genetic risk variants. However, recent studies suggest that rare genomic variation, in particular copy number variation, may account for a significant proportion of the genetic basis of ASD. We present a large scale analysis to identify candidate genes which may contain low-frequency recessive variation contributing to ASD while taking into account the potential contribution of population differences to the genetic heterogeneity of ASD. Our strategy, homozygous haplotype (HH) mapping, aims to detect homozygous segments of identical haplotype structure that are shared at a higher frequency amongst ASD patients compared to parental controls. The analysis was performed on 1,402 Autism Genome Project trios genotyped for 1 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We identified 25 known and 1,218 novel ASD candidate genes in the discovery analysis including CADM2, ABHD14A, CHRFAM7A, GRIK2, GRM3, EPHA3, FGF10, KCND2, PDZK1, IMMP2L and FOXP2. Furthermore, 10 of the previously reported ASD genes and 300 of the novel candidates identified in the discovery analysis were replicated in an independent sample of 1,182 trios. Our results demonstrate that regions of HH are significantly enriched for previously reported ASD candidate genes and the observed association is independent of gene size (odds ratio 2.10). Our findings highlight the applicability of HH mapping in complex disorders such as ASD and offer an alternative approach to the analysis of genome-wide association data.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00439-011-1094-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Interpretative and predictive modelling of Joint European Torus collisionality scans

Transport modelling of Joint European Torus (JET) dimensionless collisionality scaling experiments in various operational scenarios is presented. Interpretative simulations at a fixed radial position are combined with predictive JETTO simulations of temperatures and densities, using the TGLF transport model. The model includes electromagnetic effects and collisions as well as □(→┬E ) X □(→┬B ) shear in Miller geometry. Focus is on particle transport and the role of the neutral beam injection (NBI) particle source for the density peaking. The experimental 3-point collisionality scans include L-mode, and H-mode (D and H and higher beta D plasma) plasmas in a total of 12 discharges. Experimental results presented in (Tala et al 2017 44th EPS Conf.) indicate that for the H-mode scans, the NBI particle source plays an important role for the density peaking, whereas for the L-mode scan, the influence of the particle source is small. In general, both the interpretative and predictive transport simulations support the experimental conclusions on the role of the NBI particle source for the 12 JET discharges

Overview of JET results for optimising ITER operation

The JET 2019–2020 scientific and technological programme exploited the results of years of concerted scientific and engineering work, including the ITER-like wall (ILW: Be wall and W divertor) installed in 2010, improved diagnostic capabilities now fully available, a major neutral beam injection upgrade providing record power in 2019–2020, and tested the technical and procedural preparation for safe operation with tritium. Research along three complementary axes yielded a wealth of new results. Firstly, the JET plasma programme delivered scenarios suitable for high fusion power and alpha particle (α) physics in the coming D–T campaign (DTE2), with record sustained neutron rates, as well as plasmas for clarifying the impact of isotope mass on plasma core, edge and plasma-wall interactions, and for ITER pre-fusion power operation. The efficacy of the newly installed shattered pellet injector for mitigating disruption forces and runaway electrons was demonstrated. Secondly, research on the consequences of long-term exposure to JET-ILW plasma was completed, with emphasis on wall damage and fuel retention, and with analyses of wall materials and dust particles that will help validate assumptions and codes for design and operation of ITER and DEMO. Thirdly, the nuclear technology programme aiming to deliver maximum technological return from operations in D, T and D–T benefited from the highest D–D neutron yield in years, securing results for validating radiation transport and activation codes, and nuclear data for ITER

Testing a prediction model for the H-mode density pedestal against JET-ILW pedestals

The neutral ionisation model proposed by Groebner et al (2002 Phys. Plasmas 9 2134) to determine the plasma density profile in the H-mode pedestal, is extended to include charge exchange processes in the pedestal stimulated by the ideas of Mahdavi et al (2003 Phys. Plasmas 10 3984). The model is then tested against JET H-mode pedestal data, both in a 'standalone' version using experimental temperature profiles and also by incorporating it in the Europed version of EPED. The model is able to predict the density pedestal over a wide range of conditions with good accuracy. It is also able to predict the experimentally observed isotope effect on the density pedestal that eludes simpler neutral ionization models

Shattered pellet injection experiments at JET in support of the ITER disruption mitigation system design

A series of experiments have been executed at JET to assess the efficacy of the newly installed shattered pellet injection (SPI) system in mitigating the effects of disruptions. Issues, important for the ITER disruption mitigation system, such as thermal load mitigation, avoidance of runaway electron (RE) formation, radiation asymmetries during thermal quench mitigation, electromagnetic load control and RE energy dissipation have been addressed over a large parameter range. The efficiency of the mitigation has been examined for the various SPI injection strategies. The paper summarises the results from these JET SPI experiments and discusses their implications for the ITER disruption mitigation scheme

Overview of JET results for optimising ITER operation

The JET 2019–2020 scientific and technological programme exploited the results of years of concerted scientific and engineering work, including the ITER-like wall (ILW: Be wall and W divertor) installed in 2010, improved diagnostic capabilities now fully available, a major neutral beam injection upgrade providing record power in 2019–2020, and tested the technical and procedural preparation for safe operation with tritium. Research along three complementary axes yielded a wealth of new results. Firstly, the JET plasma programme delivered scenarios suitable for high fusion power and alpha particle (α) physics in the coming D–T campaign (DTE2), with record sustained neutron rates, as well as plasmas for clarifying the impact of isotope mass on plasma core, edge and plasma-wall interactions, and for ITER pre-fusion power operation. The efficacy of the newly installed shattered pellet injector for mitigating disruption forces and runaway electrons was demonstrated. Secondly, research on the consequences of long-term exposure to JET-ILW plasma was completed, with emphasis on wall damage and fuel retention, and with analyses of wall materials and dust particles that will help validate assumptions and codes for design and operation of ITER and DEMO. Thirdly, the nuclear technology programme aiming to deliver maximum technological return from operations in D, T and D–T benefited from the highest D–D neutron yield in years, securing results for validating radiation transport and activation codes, and nuclear data for ITER