The role of research in viral disease eradication and elimination programs: Lessons for malaria eradication

By examining the role research has played in eradication or regional elimination initiatives for three viral diseases-smallpox, poliomyelitis, and measles-we derive nine cross-cutting lessons applicable to malaria eradication. In these initiatives, some types of research commenced as the programs began and proceeded in parallel. Basic laboratory, clinical, and field research all contributed notably to progress made in the viral programs. For each program, vaccine was the lynchpin intervention, but as the programs progressed, research was required to improve vaccine formulations, delivery methods, and immunization schedules. Surveillance was fundamental to all three programs, whilst polio eradication also required improved diagnostic methods to identify asymptomatic infections. Molecular characterization of pathogen isolates strengthened surveillance and allowed insights into the geographic source of infections and their spread. Anthropologic, sociologic, and behavioural research were needed to address cultural and religious beliefs to expand community acceptance. The last phases of elimination and eradication became increasingly difficult, as a nil incidence was approached. Any eradication initiative for malaria must incorporate flexible research agendas that can adapt to changing epidemiologic contingencies and allow planning for posteradication scenarios. © 2011 Breman et al

The Role of Research in Viral Disease Eradication and Elimination Programs: Lessons for Malaria Eradication

Using their experiences from, and analysis of, global campaigns to eradicate smallpox, poliomyelitis, and measles, Myron Levine and colleagues derive lessons for malaria eradication

Epidemic History and Evolutionary Dynamics of Hepatitis B Virus Infection in Two Remote Communities in Rural Nigeria

BACKGROUND: In Nigeria, hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection has reached hyperendemic levels and its nature and origin have been described as a puzzle. In this study, we investigated the molecular epidemiology and epidemic history of HBV infection in two semi-isolated rural communities in North/Central Nigeria. It was expected that only a few, if any, HBV strains could have been introduced and effectively transmitted among these residents, reflecting limited contacts of these communities with the general population in the country. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Despite remoteness and isolation, approximately 11% of the entire population in these communities was HBV-DNA seropositive. Analyses of the S-gene sequences obtained from 55 HBV-seropositive individuals showed the circulation of 37 distinct HBV variants. These HBV isolates belong predominantly to genotype E (HBV/E) (n=53, 96.4%), with only 2 classified as sub-genotype A3 (HBV/A3). Phylogenetic analysis showed extensive intermixing between HBV/E variants identified in these communities and different countries in Africa. Quasispecies analysis of 22 HBV/E strains using end-point limiting-dilution real-time PCR, sequencing and median joining networks showed extensive intra-host heterogeneity and inter-host variant sharing. To investigate events that resulted in such remarkable HBV/E diversity, HBV full-size genome sequences were obtained from 47 HBV/E infected persons and P gene was subjected to Bayesian coalescent analysis. The time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) for these HBV/E variants was estimated to be year 1952 (95% highest posterior density (95% HPD): 1927-1970). Using additional HBV/E sequences from other African countries, the tMRCA was estimated to be year 1948 (95% HPD: 1924-1966), indicating that HBV/E in these remote communities has a similar time of origin with multiple HBV/E variants broadly circulating in West/Central Africa. Phylogenetic analysis and statistical neutrality tests suggested rapid HBV/E population expansion. Additionally, skyline plot analysis showed an increase in the size of the HBV/E-infected population over the last approximately 30-40 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest a massive introduction and relatively recent HBV/E expansion in the human population in Africa. Collectively, these data show a significant shift in the HBV/E epidemic dynamics in Africa over the last century

Dynamics of Socioeconomic Risk Factors for Neglected Tropical Diseases and Malaria in an Armed Conflict

Armed conflict and war and infectious diseases are globally among the leading causes of human suffering and premature death. Moreover, they are closely interlinked, as an adverse public health situation may spur violent conflict, and violent conflict may favor the spread of infectious diseases. The consequences of this vicious cycle are increasingly borne by civilians, often as a hidden and hence neglected burden. We analyzed household data that were collected before and after an armed conflict in a rural part of western Côte d'Ivoire, and investigated the dynamics of socioeconomic risk factors for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and malaria. We identified a worsening of the sanitation infrastructure, decreasing use of protective measures against mosquito bites, and increasing difficulties to reach public health care infrastructure. In contrast, household crowding, the availability of soap, and the accessibility of comparatively simple means of health care provision (e.g., traditional healers and community health workers) seemed to be more stable. Knowledge about such dynamics may help to increase crisis-proofness of critical infrastructure and public health systems, and hence mitigate human suffering due to armed conflict and war

Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data.</p> <p>Main findings</p> <p>First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3–5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically.</p

Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model

BACKGROUND: Previous smallpox ring vaccination models based on contact tracing over a network suggest that ring vaccination would be effective, but have not explicitly included response logistics and limited numbers of vaccinators. METHODS: We developed a continuous-time stochastic simulation of smallpox transmission, including network structure, post-exposure vaccination, vaccination of contacts of contacts, limited response capacity, heterogeneity in symptoms and infectiousness, vaccination prior to the discontinuation of routine vaccination, more rapid diagnosis due to public awareness, surveillance of asymptomatic contacts, and isolation of cases. RESULTS: We found that even in cases of very rapidly spreading smallpox, ring vaccination (when coupled with surveillance) is sufficient in most cases to eliminate smallpox quickly, assuming that 95% of household contacts are traced, 80% of workplace or social contacts are traced, and no casual contacts are traced, and that in most cases the ability to trace 1–5 individuals per day per index case is sufficient. If smallpox is assumed to be transmitted very quickly to contacts, it may at times escape containment by ring vaccination, but could be controlled in these circumstances by mass vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Small introductions of smallpox are likely to be easily contained by ring vaccination, provided contact tracing is feasible. Uncertainties in the nature of bioterrorist smallpox (infectiousness, vaccine efficacy) support continued planning for ring vaccination as well as mass vaccination. If initiated, ring vaccination should be conducted without delays in vaccination, should include contacts of contacts (whenever there is sufficient capacity) and should be accompanied by increased public awareness and surveillance

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

BACKGROUND: During the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in Liberia, contact tracing was implemented to rapidly detect new cases and prevent further transmission. We describe the scope and characteristics of contact tracing in Liberia and assess its performance during the 2014-2015 EVD epidemic. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a retrospective descriptive analysis of data collection forms for contact tracing conducted in six counties during June 2014-July 2015. EVD case counts from situation reports in the same counties were used to assess contact tracing coverage and sensitivity. Contacts who presented with symptoms and/or died, and monitoring was stopped, were classified as "potential cases". Positive predictive value (PPV) was defined as the proportion of traced contacts who were identified as potential cases. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify characteristics among potential cases. We analyzed 25,830 contact tracing records for contacts who had monitoring initiated or were last exposed between June 4, 2014 and July 13, 2015. Contact tracing was initiated for 26.7% of total EVD cases and detected 3.6% of all new cases during this period. Eighty-eight percent of contacts completed monitoring, and 334 contacts were identified as potential cases (PPV = 1.4%). Potential cases were more likely to be detected early in the outbreak; hail from rural areas; report multiple exposures and symptoms; have household contact or direct bodily or fluid contact; and report nausea, fever, or weakness compared to contacts who completed monitoring. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Contact tracing was a critical intervention in Liberia and represented one of the largest contact tracing efforts during an epidemic in history. While there were notable improvements in implementation over time, these data suggest there were limitations to its performance-particularly in urban districts and during peak transmission. Recommendations for improving performance include integrated surveillance, decentralized management of multidisciplinary teams, comprehensive protocols, and community-led strategies

Immunogenicity and efficacy of oral vaccines in developing countries: lessons from a live cholera vaccine

Oral vaccines, whether living or non-living, viral or bacterial, elicit diminished immune responses or have lower efficacy in developing countries than in developed countries. Here I describe studies with a live oral cholera vaccine that include older children no longer deriving immune support from breast milk or maternal antibodies and that identify some of the factors accounting for the lower immunogenicity, as well as suggesting counter-measures that may enhance the effectiveness of oral immunization in developing countries. The fundamental breakthrough is likely to require reversing effects of the 'environmental enteropathy' that is often present in children living in fecally contaminated, impoverished environments