Hazardous near Earth asteroid mitigation campaign planning based on uncertain information on fundamental asteroid characteristics

Given a limited warning time, an asteroid impact mitigation campaign would hinge on uncertainty-based information consisting of remote observational data of the identified Earth-threatening object, general knowledge of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and engineering judgment. Due to these ambiguities, the campaign credibility could be profoundly compromised. It is therefore imperative to comprehensively evaluate the inherent uncertainty in deflection and plan the campaign accordingly to ensure successful mitigation. This research demonstrates dual-deflection mitigation campaigns consisting of primary (instantaneous/quasi-instantaneous) and secondary (slow-push) deflection missions, where both deflection efficiency and campaign credibility are taken into account. The results of the dual-deflection campaign analysis show that there are trade-offs between the competing aspects: the launch cost, mission duration, deflection distance, and the confidence in successful deflection. The design approach is found to be useful for multi-deflection campaign planning, allowing us to select the best possible combination of missions from a catalogue of campaign options, without compromising the campaign credibility

Constraint methods for determining pathways and free energy of activated processes

Activated processes from chemical reactions up to conformational transitions of large biomolecules are hampered by barriers which are overcome only by the input of some free energy of activation. Hence, the characteristic and rate-determining barrier regions are not sufficiently sampled by usual simulation techniques. Constraints on a reaction coordinate r have turned out to be a suitable means to explore difficult pathways without changing potential function, energy or temperature. For a dense sequence of values of r, the corresponding sequence of simulations provides a pathway for the process. As only one coordinate among thousands is fixed during each simulation, the pathway essentially reflects the system's internal dynamics. From mean forces the free energy profile can be calculated to obtain reaction rates and insight in the reaction mechanism. In the last decade, theoretical tools and computing capacity have been developed to a degree where simulations give impressive qualitative insight in the processes at quantitative agreement with experiments. Here, we give an introduction to reaction pathways and coordinates, and develop the theory of free energy as the potential of mean force. We clarify the connection between mean force and constraint force which is the central quantity evaluated, and discuss the mass metric tensor correction. Well-behaved coordinates without tensor correction are considered. We discuss the theoretical background and practical implementation on the example of the reaction coordinate of targeted molecular dynamics simulation. Finally, we compare applications of constraint methods and other techniques developed for the same purpose, and discuss the limits of the approach

Heavy --> Light semileptonic decays of pseudoscalar mesons from lattice QCD

We have computed the form factors for B --> pi and D --> K(pi) semileptonic decays on the lattice by using full non-perturbative O(a) improvement, in the quenched approximation. Our results are expressed in terms of few parameters which describe the q^2-dependence and normalization of the form factors.Comment: 28 pages (LaTeX2e), 11 PostScript figures (version to appear in Nucl.Phys.B

Is the Sun Embedded in a Typical Interstellar Cloud?

The physical properties and kinematics of the partially ionized interstellar material near the Sun are typical of warm diffuse clouds in the solar vicinity. The interstellar magnetic field at the heliosphere and the kinematics of nearby clouds are naturally explained in terms of the S1 superbubble shell. The interstellar radiation field at the Sun appears to be harder than the field ionizing ambient diffuse gas, which may be a consequence of the low opacity of the tiny cloud surrounding the heliosphere. The spatial context of the Local Bubble is consistent with our location in the Orion spur.Comment: "From the Outer Heliosphere to the Local Bubble", held at International Space Sciences Institute, October 200

The composition of the protosolar disk and the formation conditions for comets

Conditions in the protosolar nebula have left their mark in the composition of cometary volatiles, thought to be some of the most pristine material in the solar system. Cometary compositions represent the end point of processing that began in the parent molecular cloud core and continued through the collapse of that core to form the protosun and the solar nebula, and finally during the evolution of the solar nebula itself as the cometary bodies were accreting. Disentangling the effects of the various epochs on the final composition of a comet is complicated. But comets are not the only source of information about the solar nebula. Protostellar disks around young stars similar to the protosun provide a way of investigating the evolution of disks similar to the solar nebula while they are in the process of evolving to form their own solar systems. In this way we can learn about the physical and chemical conditions under which comets formed, and about the types of dynamical processing that shaped the solar system we see today. This paper summarizes some recent contributions to our understanding of both cometary volatiles and the composition, structure and evolution of protostellar disks.Comment: To appear in Space Science Reviews. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11214-015-0167-

B→ϕKB\to \phi K and B→ϕXsB\to \phi X_s in the Heavy Quark Limit

We study $B\to \phi K$ and $B\to \phi X_s$ decays in the heavy quark limit using perturbative QCD. The next leading order corrections introduce substantial modifications to the naive factorization results (more than 50%). The branching ratio $Br(B\to \phi K)$ is predicted to be in the range $(F^{B\to K}_1(m^2_\phi)/0.33)^2(3.5\sim 4.2) \times 10^{-6}$ which is within the one $\sigma$ allowed region from the central value of $6.2\times 10^{-6}$ measured by CLEO, but outside the one $\sigma$ allowed region from the central value of $17.2\times 10^{-6}$ measured by BELLE for reasonable $F_1^{B\to K}$. For the semi-inclusive decay $B\to \phi X_s$ we also include initial bound state effect in the heavy quark limit which decreases the branching ratio by about 10%. $Br(B\to \phi X_s)$ is predicted to be in the range $(5.1\sim 6.3)\times 10^{-5}$.Comment: 11 pages, revte

Measurement report: Understanding the seasonal cycle of Southern Ocean aerosols

Published: 29 March 2023The remoteness and extreme conditions of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic region have meant that observations in this region are rare, and typically restricted to summertime during research or resupply voyages. Observations of aerosols outside of the summer season are typically limited to long-term stations, such as Kennaook / Cape Grim (KCG; 40.7∘ S, 144.7∘ E), which is situated in the northern latitudes of the Southern Ocean, and Antarctic research stations, such as the Japanese operated Syowa (SYO; 69.0∘ S, 39.6∘ E). Measurements in the midlatitudes of the Southern Ocean are important, particularly in light of recent observations that highlighted the latitudinal gradient that exists across the region in summertime. Here we present 2 years (March 2016–March 2018) of observations from Macquarie Island (MQI; 54.5∘ S, 159.0∘ E) of aerosol (condensation nuclei larger than 10 nm, CN10) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN at various supersaturations) concentrations. This important multi-year data set is characterised, and its features are compared with the long-term data sets from KCG and SYO together with those from recent, regionally relevant voyages. CN10 concentrations were the highest at KCG by a factor of ∼50 % across all non-winter seasons compared to the other two stations, which were similar (summer medians of 530, 426 and 468 cm−3 at KCG, MQI and SYO, respectively). In wintertime, seasonal minima at KCG and MQI were similar (142 and 152 cm−3, respectively), with SYO being distinctly lower (87 cm−3), likely the result of the reduction in sea spray aerosol generation due to the sea ice ocean cover around the site. CN10 seasonal maxima were observed at the stations at different times of year, with KCG and MQI exhibiting January maxima and SYO having a distinct February high. Comparison of CCN0.5 data between KCG and MQI showed similar overall trends with summertime maxima and wintertime minima; however, KCG exhibited slightly (∼10 %) higher concentrations in summer (medians of 158 and 145 cm−3, respectively), whereas KCG showed ∼40 % lower concentrations than MQI in winter (medians of 57 and 92 cm−3, respectively). Spatial and temporal trends in the data were analysed further by contrasting data to coincident observations that occurred aboard several voyages of the RSV Aurora Australis and the RV Investigator. Results from this study are important for validating and improving our models and highlight the heterogeneity of this pristine region and the need for further long-term observations that capture the seasonal cycles.Ruhi S. Humphries, Melita D. Keywood, Jason P. Ward, James Harnwell, Simon P. Alexander, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Keiichiro Hara, Ian M. McRobert, Alain Protat, Joel Alroe, Luke T. Cravigan, Branka Miljevic, Zoran D. Ristovski, Robyn Schofield, Stephen R. Wilson, Connor J. Flynn, Gourihar R. Kulkarni, Gerald G. Mace, Greg M. McFarquhar, Scott D. Chambers, Alastair G. Williams, and Alan D. Griffith