Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators

Tesis por compendio[ES] Las grandes presas, así como los diques de protección, son infraestructuras críticas cuyo fallo puede conllevar importantes consecuencias económicas y sociales. Tradicionalmente, la gestión del riesgo y la definición de estrategias de adaptación en la toma de decisiones han asumido la invariabilidad de las condiciones climáticas, incluida la persistencia de patrones históricos de variabilidad natural y la frecuencia de eventos extremos. Sin embargo, se espera que el cambio climático afecte de forma importante a los sistemas hídricos y comprometa la seguridad de las presas, lo que puede acarrear posibles impactos negativos en términos de costes económicos, sociales y ambientales. Los propietarios y operadores de presas deben por tanto adaptar sus estrategias de gestión y adaptación a medio y largo plazo a los nuevos escenarios climáticos. En la presente tesis se ha desarrollado una metodología integral para incorporar los impactos del cambio climático en la gestión de la seguridad de presas y en el apoyo a la toma de decisiones. El objetivo es plantear estrategias de adaptación que incorporen la variabilidad de los futuros riesgos, así como la incertidumbre asociada a los nuevos escenarios climáticos. El impacto del cambio climático en la seguridad de presas se ha estructurado utilizando modelos de riesgo y mediante una revisión bibliográfica interdisciplinaria sobre sus potenciales efectos. Esto ha permitido establecer un enfoque dependiente del tiempo que incorpore la evolución futura del riesgo, para lo cual se ha definido un nuevo indicador que evalúa cuantitativamente la eficiencia a largo plazo de las medidas de reducción de riesgo. Además, para integrar la incertidumbre de los escenarios futuros en la toma de decisiones, la metodología propone una estrategia robusta que permite establecer secuencias optimizadas de implementación de medidas correctoras para la adaptación al cambio climático. A pesar de las dificultades para asignar probabilidades a eventos específicos, esta metodología permite un análisis sistemático y objetivo, reduciendo considerablemente la subjetividad. Esta metodología se ha aplicado al caso real de una presa española susceptible a los efectos del cambio climático. El análisis se centra en el escenario hidrológico, donde las avenidas son la principal carga a la que está sometida la presa. Respecto de análisis previos de la presa, los resultados obtenidos proporcionan nueva y valiosa información sobre la evolución de los riesgos futuros y sobre cómo abordarlos. En general, se espera un aumento del riesgo con el tiempo; esto ha llevado a plantear nuevas medidas de adaptación que no están justificadas en la situación actual. Esta es la primera aplicación documentada de un análisis exhaustivo de los impactos del cambio climático sobre el riesgo de rotura de una presa que sirve como marco de referencia para la definición de estrategias de adaptación a largo plazo y la evaluación de su eficiencia.[CAT] Les grans preses, així com els dics de protecció, són infraestructures crítiques que si fallen poden produir importants conseqüències econòmiques i socials. Tradicionalment, la gestió del risc i la definició d'estratègies d'adaptació en la presa de decisions han assumit la invariabilitat de les condicions climàtiques, inclosa la persistència de patrons històrics de variabilitat natural i la probabilitat d'esdeveniments extrems. No obstant això, s'espera que el canvi climàtic afecte de manera important als sistemes hídrics i comprometi la seguretat de les preses, la qual cosa pot implicar possibles impactes negatius en termes de costos econòmics, socials i ambientals. Els propietaris i operadors de preses deuen per tant adaptar les seues estratègies de gestió i adaptació a mitjà i llarg termini als nous escenaris climàtics. En la present tesi s'ha desenvolupat una metodologia integral per a incorporar els impactes del canvi climàtic en la gestió de la seguretat de preses i en el suport a la presa de decisions. L'objectiu és plantejar estratègies d'adaptació que incorporen la variabilitat dels futurs riscos, així com la incertesa associada als nous escenaris climàtics. L'impacte del canvi climàtic en la seguretat de preses s'ha estructurat utilitzant models de risc i mitjançant una revisió bibliogràfica interdisciplinària sobre els seus potencials efectes. Això ha permès establir un enfocament dependent del temps que incorpori l'evolució futura del risc, per a això s'ha definit un nou indicador que avalua quantitativament l'eficiència a llarg termini de les mesures de reducció de risc. A més, per a integrar la incertesa dels escenaris futurs en la presa de decisions, la metodologia proposa una estratègia robusta que permet establir seqüències optimitzades d'implementació de mesures correctores per a l'adaptació al canvi climàtic. A pesar de les dificultats per a assignar probabilitats a esdeveniments específics, esta metodologia permet una anàlisi sistemàtica i objectiva, reduint considerablement la subjectivitat. Aquesta metodologia s'ha aplicat al cas real d'una presa espanyola susceptible a l'efecte del canvi climàtic. L'anàlisi se centra en l'escenari hidrològic, on les avingudes són la principal càrrega a la qual està sotmesa la presa. Respecte d'anàlisis prèvies de la presa, els resultats obtinguts proporcionen nova i valuosa informació sobre l'evolució dels riscos futurs i sobre com abordar-los. En general, s'espera un augment del risc amb el temps; això ha portat a plantejar noves mesures d'adaptació que no estarien justificades en la situació actual. Aquesta és la primera aplicació documentada d'una anàlisi exhaustiva dels impactes del canvi climàtic sobre el risc de trencament d'una presa que serveix com a marc de referència per a la definició d'estratègies d'adaptació a llarg termini i l'avaluació de la seua eficiencia.[EN] Large dams as well as protective dikes and levees are critical infrastructures whose failure has major economic and social consequences. Risk assessment approaches and decision-making strategies have traditionally assumed the stationarity of climatic conditions, including the persistence of historical patterns of natural variability and the likelihood of extreme events. However, climate change has a major impact on the world's water systems and is endangering dam safety, leading to potentially damaging impacts in terms of economic, social and environmental costs. Owners and operators of dams must adapt their mid- and long-term management and adaptation strategies to new climate scenarios. This thesis proposes a comprehensive approach to incorporate climate change impacts on dam safety management and decision-making support. The goal is to design adaptation strategies that incorporate the non-stationarity of future risks as well as the uncertainties associated with new climate scenarios. Based on an interdisciplinary review of the state-of-the-art research on its potential effects, the global impact of climate change on dam safety is structured using risk models. This allows a time-dependent approach to be established to consider the potential evolution of risk with time. Consequently, a new indicator is defined to support the quantitative assessment of the long-term efficiency of risk reduction measures. Additionally, in order to integrate the uncertainty of future scenarios, the approach is enhanced with a robust decision-making strategy that helps establish the consensus sequence of measures to be implemented for climate change adaptation. Despite the difficulties to allocate probabilities to specific events, such framework allows for a systematic and objective analysis, reducing considerably the subjectivity. Such a methodology is applied to a real case study of a Spanish dam subjected to the effects of climate change. The analysis focus on hydrological scenarios, where floods are the main load to which the dam is subjected. The results provide valuable new information with respect to the previously existing analysis of the dam regarding the evolution of future risks and how to cope with it. In general, risks are expected to increase with time and, as a result, new adaptation measures that are not justifiable for the present situation are recommended. This is the first documented application of a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on dam failure risk and serves as a reference benchmark for the definition of long-term adaptation strategies and the evaluation of their efficiency.Fluixá Sanmartín, J. (2020). Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/157634TESISCompendi

Desarrollo de una herramienta de estimación de probabilidades de sobrevertido en presas en el contexto del Análisis de Riesgo

[ES] En este trabajo se presenta una herramienta sencilla de estimación de probabilidades de sobrevertido en presas, basada en unas características hidrológico-hidráulicas básicas generalmente disponibles en la documentación de la presa. Dicha herramienta se ha fundamentado en los datos y resultados de riesgo obtenidos para un conjunto de 30 presas españolas de distinta tipología. Se ha estudiado asimismo la relación entre las probabilidades de sobrevertido y las probabilidades de rotura por sobrevertido obtenidas mediante modelos de riesgo completos y simplificados. Estos resultados han permitido plantear unas recomendaciones a la hora de considerar el modo de fallo por sobrevertido y de contemplar estudios de mayor detalle, en función de los rangos de probabilidades de sobrevertido estimados. Una de las utilidades principales de esta herramienta en el campo del Análisis de Riesgo es la clasificación de conjuntos de presas en una fase previa de tipo screening, como ayuda para la organización, planificación y asignación de recursos a programas de seguridad mediante la identificación de aquellas presas con niveles de riesgo más elevados.[EN] In this document a simple tool for estimation of dam overtopping probabilities is introduced. It is based on basic hidrological and hydraulic characteristics generally available in the dam¿s safety file. This tool is supported by the risk results of a portfolio of 30 Spanish dams. A relation between overtopping probabilities and failure probabilities has been established as well using detailed and simplified risk models. The results lead to some recommendations to evaluate the importance of the overtopping failure mode. More detailed studies would be carried out depending on the estimated overtopping probabilities ranges. The main usefulness of this tool in the context of Risk Analysis is the classification of portfolios of dams in screening analyses. These types of analyses are useful in the organization, planning and assignment of resources by identifying the dams with highest risk levels.Fluixá Sanmartín, J. (2012). Desarrollo de una herramienta de estimación de probabilidades de sobrevertido en presas en el contexto del Análisis de Riesgo. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/27537Archivo delegad

Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

[EN] Dam safety is increasingly subjected to the influence of climate change. Its impacts must be assessed through the integration of the various effects acting on each aspect, considering their interdependencies, rather than just a simple accumulation of separate impacts. This serves as a dam safety management supporting tool to assess the vulnerability of the dam to climate change and to define adaptation strategies under an evolutive dam failure risk management framework. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam under hydrological scenarios, integrating the various projected effects acting on each component of the risk, from the input hydrology to the consequences of the outflow hydrograph. In particular, the results of 21 regional climate models encompassing three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used to calculate the risk evolution of the dam until the end of the 21st century. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, for most of the cases contemplated, especially for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Moreover, the individual analysis of each risk component shows that the alteration of the expected inflows has the greater influence on the final risk. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.The authors acknowledge the Spanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition (MITECO) for its support in the preparation of this paper.Fluixá Sanmartín, J.; Morales Torres, A.; Escuder Bueno, I.; Paredes Arquiola, J. (2019). 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Y.: Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2143–2161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2143-2017, 2017. 

Accounting for climate change uncertainty in long-term dam risk management

[EN] This paper presents a practical approach to adaptive management of dam risk based on robust decision-making strategies coupled with estimation of climate scenario probabilities. The proposed methodology, called multi-prior weighted scenarios ranking, consists of a series of steps from risk estimation for current and future situations through definition of the consensus sequence of risk reduction measures to be implemented. This represents a supporting tool for dam owners and safety practitioners in making decisions for managing dams or prioritizing long-term investments using a cost-benefit approach. This methodology is applied to the case study of a Spanish dam under the effects of climate change. Several risk reduction measures are proposed and their impacts are analyzed. The application of the methodology allows for identifying the optimal sequence of implementation measures that overcomes uncertainty from the diversity of available climate scenarios by prioritizing measures that reduce future accumulated risks at lower costs. This work proves that such a methodology helps address uncertainty that arises from multiple climate scenarios while adopting a cost-benefit approach that optimizes economic resources in dam risk management.Fluixá-Sanmartín, J.; Escuder Bueno, I.; Morales-Torres, A.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. (2021). Accounting for climate change uncertainty in long-term dam risk management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 147(4):1-13. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001355S1131474Amodio, S., D’Ambrosio, A., & Siciliano, R. (2016). Accurate algorithms for identifying the median ranking when dealing with weak and partial rankings under the Kemeny axiomatic approach. 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Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Emond, E. J., & Mason, D. W. (2002). A new rank correlation coefficient with application to the consensus ranking problem. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 11(1), 17-28. doi:10.1002/mcda.313Farnoud Hassanzadeh, F., & Milenkovic, O. (2014). An Axiomatic Approach to Constructing Distances for Rank Comparison and Aggregation. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 60(10), 6417-6439. doi:10.1109/tit.2014.2345760Ferson, S., & Ginzburg, L. R. (1996). Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 54(2-3), 133-144. doi:10.1016/s0951-8320(96)00071-3Fluixá-Sanmartín, J., Altarejos-García, L., Morales-Torres, A., & Escuder-Bueno, I. (2018). Review article: Climate change impacts on dam safety. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18(9), 2471-2488. doi:10.5194/nhess-18-2471-2018Fluixá-Sanmartín, J., Escuder-Bueno, I., Morales-Torres, A., & Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T. (2020). Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 203, 107100. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2020.107100Fluixá-Sanmartín, J., Morales-Torres, A., Escuder-Bueno, I., & Paredes-Arquiola, J. (2019). Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 19(10), 2117-2139. doi:10.5194/nhess-19-2117-2019Gersonius, B., Morselt, T., van Nieuwenhuijzen, L., Ashley, R., & Zevenbergen, C. (2012). How the Failure to Account for Flexibility in the Economic Analysis of Flood Risk and Coastal Management Strategies Can Result in Maladaptive Decisions. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 138(5), 386-393. doi:10.1061/(asce)ww.1943-5460.0000142Giorgi, F., & Mearns, L. O. (2002). 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Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis. doi:10.7249/mr1626Levitan, S., & Thomson, R. (2009). The Application of Expected-Utility Theory to the Choice of Investment Channels in a Defined-Contribution Retirement Fund. ASTIN Bulletin, 39(2), 615-647. doi:10.2143/ast.39.2.2044651Leyva López, J. C., & Alvarez Carrillo, P. A. (2014). Accentuating the rank positions in an agreement index with reference to a consensus order. International Transactions in Operational Research, 22(6), 969-995. doi:10.1111/itor.12146Lind, N. (2007). Discounting risks in the far future. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 92(10), 1328-1332. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.001Luo, K., Xu, Y., Zhang, B., & Zhang, H. (2016). Creating an acceptable consensus ranking for group decision making. Journal of Combinatorial Optimization, 36(1), 307-328. doi:10.1007/s10878-016-0086-9Meila M. K. Phadnis A. Patterson and J. A. Bilmes. 2012. “Consensus ranking under the exponential model.” Preprint submitted June 20 2012. http://arxiv.org/abs/1206.5265.Miao, D. Y., Li, Y. P., Huang, G. H., Yang, Z. F., & Li, C. H. (2014). Optimization Model for Planning Regional Water Resource Systems under Uncertainty. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(2), 238-249. doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000303Minville, M., Brissette, F., & Leconte, R. (2010). Impacts and Uncertainty of Climate Change on Water Resource Management of the Peribonka River System (Canada). Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 136(3), 376-385. doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000041Morales-Torres, A., Escuder-Bueno, I., Serrano-Lombillo, A., & Castillo Rodríguez, J. T. (2019). Dealing with epistemic uncertainty in risk-informed decision making for dam safety management. 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Empirical Tool for the Assessment of Annual Overtopping Probabilities of Dams

[EN] This paper presents a simple tool for the assessment of maximum overtopping probabilities of dams. The tool is based on empirical relations between the overtopping probability and the basic hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the dam-reservoir system: the unit storage capacity, VF*, and the unit spillway capacity, QCap*, both weighted with the relative importance of the 1,000-year flood. The surface issued from the tool represents the limit above which no VF*-QCap* combination is statistically expected to offer a higher probability. The tool was calibrated using the detailed overtopping models of 342,233 synthetic cases generated from 30 existing dams and then validated against a set of 21 independent cases. The tool is useful when analyzing a portfolio of dams in previous screening phases of dam risk analysis. It aims at identifying overtopping as a relevant failure mode and easily classifying each dam in terms of its overtopping probability. The tool is also a support for the definition and prioritization of corrective measures since it assesses their impact in the overtopping probability reduction.Fluixá-Sanmartín, J.; Altarejos-García, L.; Morales-Torres, A.; Escuder Bueno, I. (2019). Empirical Tool for the Assessment of Annual Overtopping Probabilities of Dams. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 145(1):1-12. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001017S112145

El sistema operacional MINERVE para la previsión de crecidas en el Cantón de Valais, Suiza

In recent decades, the watershed of the Rhône River, upstream of Lake Geneva in Switzerland, has suffered three major floods that have caused damages for over 500 million dollars. This led to the third correction of the Rhône River, which aims to improve flood protection in the basin. In this context, the MINERVE system for forecasting and flood management aims to improve the hydrometeorological information in the basin taking into account the existing network of reservoirs and hydropower plants. The first phase of the project began in 2002 with various applied research projects aiming to develop a hydrological and hydraulic model capable of quickly and easily modeling complex basins. Then, these investigations were put into operational phase in 2011 to provide a real-time operating system for flood forecasting and management in the Rhone River

Los desafíos de la modelización hidrológica y la previsión de crecidas en tiempo real en alta montaña

Flood forecasting systems are today recognized as a key element in natural hazard mitigation. The objective is to exploit the available observed and forecasted meteorological information to foresee river discharges up to several days in advance, using a hydrological model. The quality of the hydrological forecast is directly dependent on the quality of the meteorological input feeding the model. Optimal usage of the meteorological data is therefore essential. Depending on the sources of data considered and the method used to spatialize and combine the data, the interpolated precipitation intensity and spatial distribution may vary considerably. Calibration of the model is an important step in the preparation of the system. The parametrization of the model is adapted to obtain simulated discharges as similar as possible to the observed ones. Finally, by integrating in real time discharge and other observations in the computation scheme with data assimilation methods, the quality of the hydrological forecast can be further enhanced

Review article: Climate change impacts on dam safety

[EN] Dams as well as protective dikes and levees are critical infrastructures whose associated risk must be properly managed in a continuous and updated process. Usually, dam safety management has been carried out assuming stationary climatic and non-climatic conditions. However, the projected alterations due to climate change are likely to affect different factors driving dam risk. Although some reference institutions develop guidance for including climate change in their decision support strategies, related information is still vast and scattered and its application to specific analyses such as dam safety assessments remains a challenge. This article presents a comprehensive and multidisciplinary review of the impacts of climate change that could affect dam safety. The global effect can be assessed through the integration of the various projected effects acting on each aspect of the risk, from the input hydrology to the calculation of the consequences of the flood wave on population and assets at risk. This will provide useful information for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in their decisionmaking process.Fluixá Sanmartín, J.; Altarejos García, L.; Morales Torres, A.; Escuder Bueno, I. (2018). Review article: Climate change impacts on dam safety. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 18(9):2471-2488. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2471-2018S24712488189Altarejos-García, L., Escuder-Bueno, I., Serrano-Lombillo, A., and de Membrillera-Ortuño, M.: Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis, Struct. 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Future runoff from glacierized catchments in the Central Andes could substantially decrease

In Peru, about 50% of the energy is produced from hydropower plants. An important amount of this energy is produced with water from glaciated catchments. In these catchments river streamflow is furthermore needed for other socio-economic activities such as agriculture. However, the amount and seasonality of water from glacial melt is expected to undergo strong changes. As glaciers are projected to further decline with continued warming, runoff will become more and more sensitive to possible changes in precipitation patterns. Moreover, as stated by a recent study (Neukom et al., 2015), wet season precipitation sums in the Central Andes could decrease up to 19-33 % by the end of the 21st century compared to present-day conditions. Here, we investigate future runoff availability for selected glacierized catchments in the Peruvian Andes. In a first step, we apply a simplified energy balance and runoff model (ITGG-2.0-R) for current conditions