Review article: Climate change impacts on dam safety

Abstract

[EN] Dams as well as protective dikes and levees are critical infrastructures whose associated risk must be properly managed in a continuous and updated process. Usually, dam safety management has been carried out assuming stationary climatic and non-climatic conditions. However, the projected alterations due to climate change are likely to affect different factors driving dam risk. Although some reference institutions develop guidance for including climate change in their decision support strategies, related information is still vast and scattered and its application to specific analyses such as dam safety assessments remains a challenge. This article presents a comprehensive and multidisciplinary review of the impacts of climate change that could affect dam safety. The global effect can be assessed through the integration of the various projected effects acting on each aspect of the risk, from the input hydrology to the calculation of the consequences of the flood wave on population and assets at risk. This will provide useful information for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in their decisionmaking process.Fluixá Sanmartín, J.; Altarejos García, L.; Morales Torres, A.; Escuder Bueno, I. (2018). Review article: Climate change impacts on dam safety. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 18(9):2471-2488. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2471-2018S24712488189Altarejos-García, L., Escuder-Bueno, I., Serrano-Lombillo, A., and de Membrillera-Ortuño, M.: Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis, Struct. Saf., 36–37, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2012.01.001, 2012. aANCOLD: Guidelines on Risk Assessment, Tech. rep., Australian National Committee on Large Dams, 2003. a, bAnderson, B., Rutherfurd, I., and Western, A.: An analysis of the influence of riparian vegetation on the propagation of flood waves, Environ. Model. Softw., 21, 1290–1296, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.04.027, 2006. aAndreu, J., Capilla, J., and Sanchís, E.: AQUATOOL, a generalized decision-support system for water-resources planning and operational management, J. Hydrol., 177, 269–291, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(95)02963-X, 1996. aArdiles, L., Sanz, D., Moreno, P., Jenaro, E., Fleitz, J., and Escuder-Bueno, I.: Risk Assessment and Management for 26 Dams Operated By the Duero River Authority (Spain), in: 6th International Conference on Dam Engineering, edited by: Pina, C., Portela, E., Gomes, J., Lisbon, Portugal, 15–17 February 2011. aArheimer, B. and Lindström, G.: Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911–2100), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 771–784, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-771-2015, 2015. aArnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Willems, P., Olsson, J., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., and Nguyen, V.-T.-V.: Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: a review, Water Sci. Technol., 68, 16–28, https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2013.251, 2013. aAtkins: Impact of Climate Change on Dams & Reservoirs, Final Guidance Report FD2628, Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 2013. aAven, T.: The risk concept–historical and recent development trends, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 99, 33–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2011.11.006, 2012. aAyyub, B. M.: Elicitation of expert opinions for uncertainty and risks, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, 2001. aBahls, V. and Holman, K.: Climate Change in Hydrologic Hazard Analyses: Friant Dam Pilot Study - Part I: Hydrometeorological Model Inputs, Tech. rep., U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 2014. a, bBarredo, J. I.: Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 97-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-97-2009, 2009. aBates, B., Kundzewicz, Z., Wu, S., and Palutikof, J. (Eds.): Climate change and water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, ipcc secretariat edn., 2008. aBladé, E., Cea, L., Corestein, G., Escolano, E., Puertas, J., Vázquez-Cendón, E., Dolz, J., and Coll, A.: Iber: herramienta de simulación numérica del flujo en ríos, Revista Internacional de Métodos Numéricos para Cálculo y Diseño en Ingeniería, 30, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rimni.2012.07.004, 2014. aBornschein, A. and Pohl, R.: Land use influence on flood routing and retention from the viewpoint of hydromechanics: Land use influence on flood routing and retention, J. Flood Risk Manag., 11, 6–14, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12289, 2018. aBouwer, L. M.: Have Disaster Losses Increased Due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 39–46, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1, 2011. aBouwer, L. M., Bubeck, P., and Aerts, J. C.: Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area, Global Environ. Change, 20, 463–471, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.002, 2010. aBowles, D.: Advances in the practice and use of portfolio risk assessment, in: ANCOLD Conference on Dams, 2000. aBowles, D., Brown, A., Hughes, A., Morris, M., Sayers, P., Topple, A., Wallis, M., and Gardiner, K.: Guide to risk assessment for reservoir safety management, Volume 1: Guide, Tech. Rep. SC090001/R1, Environment Agency, Horison House, Deanery Road, Bristol, BS1 9AH, 2013a. a, bBowles, D., Brown, A., Hughes, A., Morris, M., Sayers, P., Topple, A., Wallis, M., and Gardiner, K.: Guide to risk assessment for reservoir safety management, Volume 2: Methodology and supporting information, Tech. Rep. SC090001/R2, Environment Agency, Horison House, Deanery Road, Bristol, BS1 9AH, 2013b. aBraud, I., Vich, A., Zuluaga, J., Fornero, L., and Pedrani, A.: Vegetation influence on runoff and sediment yield in the Andes region: observation and modelling, J. Hydrol., 254, 124–144, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00500-5, 2001. aBriaud, J.-L.: Case Histories in Soil and Rock Erosion: Woodrow Wilson Bridge, Brazos River Meander, Normandy Cliffs, and New Orleans Levees, J. Geotech. Geoenviron., 134, 1425–1447, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2008)134:10(1425), 2008. aBritish Columbia, Water Management Branch, British Columbia, and Dam Safety Unit: Inspection & maintenance of dams: dam safety guidelines, British Columbia, Water Management Branch, Victoria, 1998. aCardona, O., van Aalst, M., Birkmann, J., Fordham, M., McGregor, G., Perez, R., Pulwarty, R., Schipper, E., and Sinh, B.: Determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability, in: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, edited by: Field, C., Barros, V., Stocker, T., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K., Mastrandrea, M., Mach, K., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P., A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 65–108, 2012. aCarrivick, J. L.: Dam break – Outburst flood propagation and transient hydraulics: A geosciences perspective, J. Hydrol., 380, 338–355, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.11.009, 2010. aCH2014-Impacts: Toward quantitative scenarios of climate change impacts in Switzerland, OCCR, FOEN, MeteoSwiss, C2SM, Agroscope and ProClim, Bern, Switzerland, 2014. aChaney, N. W., Herman, J. D., Reed, P. M., and Wood, E. F.: Flood and drought hydrologic monitoring: the role of model parameter uncertainty, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3239–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3239-2015, 2015. aChangnon, S. A., Pielke, R. A., Changnon, D., Sylves, R. T., and Pulwarty, R.: Human Factors Explain the Increased Losses from Weather and Climate Extremes, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 437–442, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0437:HFETIL>2.3.CO;2, 2000. aChernet, H. H., Alfredsen, K., and Midttømme, G. H.: Safety of Hydropower Dams in a Changing Climate, J. Hydrol. Eng., 19, 569–582, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000836, 2014. a, b, cChoi, O. and Fischer, A.: The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) And the U.S., Clim. Change, 58, 149–170, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023459216609, 2003. aCommonwealth of Australia: National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy, Tech. rep., 2015. aCrompton, R. P. and McAneney, K. J.: Normalised Australian insured losses from meteorological hazards: 1967–2006, Environ. Sci. Policy, 11, 371–378, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2008.01.005, 2008. aDamiano, E. and Mercogliano, P.: Potential Effects of Climate Change on Slope Stability in Unsaturated Pyroclastic Soils, in: Landslide Science and Practice, edited by: Margottini, C., Canuti, P., and Sassa, K., Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 15–25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31337-0_2, 2013. aDankers, R. and Feyen, L.: Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D19105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009719, 2008. a, bDe Roo, A., Odijk, M., Schmuck, G., Koster, E., and Lucieer, A.: Assessing the effects of land use changes on floods in the meuse and oder catchment, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. B, 26, 593–599, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1909(01)00054-5, 2001. aDehn, M., Bürger, G., Buma, J., and Gasparetto, P.: Impact of climate change on slope stability using expanded downscaling, Eng. Geol., 55, 193–204, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(99)00123-4, 2000. aDHI: MIKE FLOOD User Manual, Tech. rep., Danish Hydraulic Institute – Water and Environment, Hørsholm, Denmark, 2014. aDixon, K. W., Lanzante, J. R., Nath, M. J., Hayhoe, K., Stoner, A., Radhakrishnan, A., Balaji, V., and Gaitán, C. F.: Evaluating the stationarity assumption in statistically downscaled climate projections: is past performance an indicator of future results?, Clim. Change, 135, 395–408, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1598-0, 2016. aDobler, C., Bürger, G., and Stötter, J.: Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex Alpine catchment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 263–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-263-2013, 2013. a, bDuan, J. G., Bai, Y., Dominguez, F., Rivera, E., and Meixner, T.: Framework for incorporating climate change on flood magnitude and frequency analysis in the upper Santa Cruz River, J. Hydrol., 549, 194–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.042, 2017. a, bEscuder-Bueno, I. and González-Pérez, J.: Metodología para la evaluación del riesgo hidrológico de presas y priorización de medidas correctoras, Colegio de Ingeniero de Caminos, Canales y Puertos, Madrid, Spain, 2014. aEscuder-Bueno, I., Castillo-Rodriguez, J., Perales-Momparler, S., and Morales-Torres, A.: SUFRI methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making, SUFRI project, WP3, final report, Tech. rep., available at: http://www.edams.upv.es/docs/2011_July_SUFRI_WP3_Final Report.pdf (last access: 13 September 2018), 2011. aEscuder-Bueno, I., Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T., Zechner, S., Jöbstl, C., Perales-Momparler, S., and Petaccia, G.: A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2843–2863, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2843-2012, 2012. aEuropean Commission: An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52009DC0147&from=EN (last access: 13 September 2018), 2013. aEvans, S. G. and Delaney, K. B.: Catastrophic Mass Flows in the Mountain Glacial Environment, in: Snow and Ice-Related Hazards, Risks and Disasters, Elsevier, 563–606, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-394849-6.00016-0, 2015. aFassnacht, S. R. and Records, R. M.: Large snowmelt versus rainfall events in the mountains: Big Mountain Snowmelt vs Rainfall Events, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 2375–2381, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022753, 2015. aFEMA: Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety Risk Management, FEMA P-1025, Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2015. aFERC: Arch Dams, in: Engineering Guidelines for the Evaluation of Hydropower Projects, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Division of Dam Safety and Inspections, Washington, DC, 1999. aFERC: Engineering Guidelines for the Evaluation of Hydropower Projects, in: Dam Safety Performance Monitoring Program, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 2005. aFeyen, L., Barredo, J., and Dankers, R.: Implications of global warming and urban land use change on flooding in Europe, in: Water and Urban Development Paradigms: Towards an Integration of Engineering, Design and Management Approaches, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, 217–225, 2008. aFischer, G., Tubiello, F. N., van Velthuizen, H., and Wiberg, D. A.: Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: Effects of mitigation, 1990–2080, Technol. Forecast. Soc., 74, 1083–1107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.021, 2007. aGarcía-Kabbabe, L., Chaparro-Carrasquel, L., Escuder-Bueno, I., and Serrano-Lombillo, A.: Metodología para estructurar modos de fallo en sistemas presa-embalse, Valladolid, Spain, 2010. aGilroy, K. L. and McCuen, R. H.: A nonstationary flood frequency analysis method to adjust for future climate change and urbanization, J. Hydrol., 414–415, 40–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.009, 2012. aGirón, F.: The evacuation of floods during the operation of reservoir, in: 16th ICOLD Congress, International Commission on large dams (ICOLD), San Francisco, USA, 1988. aHall, J.: Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100, Global Environ. Change, 5, 51–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hazards.2004.04.002, 2003. aHandmer, J., Honda, Y., Kundzewicz, Z., Arnell, N., Benito, G., Hatfield, J., Mohamed, I., Peduzzi, P., Wu, S., Sherstyukov, B., Takahashi, K., and Yan, Z.: Changes in impacts of climate extremes: human systems and ecosystems, in: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, edited by: Field, C., Barros, V., Stocker, T., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K., Mastrandrea, M., Mach, K., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P., A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 231–290, 2012. aHannaford, J. and Marsh, T. J.: High–flow and flood trends in a network of undisturbed catchments in the UK, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1325–1338, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1643, 2008. aHilker, N., Badoux, A., and Hegg, C.: The Swiss flood and landslide damage database 1972–2007, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 913–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-913-2009, 2009. aHirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D., Watanabe, S., Kim, H., and Kanae, S.: Global flood risk under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 816–821, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911, 2013. a, bHuggel, C., Caplan-Auerbach, J., and Wessels, R.: Recent Extreme Avalanches: Triggered by Climate Change?, Eos T. Am. Geophys. Un., 89, 469–470, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008EO470001, 2008. aHuss, M.: Present and future contribution of glacier storage change to runoff from macroscale drainage basins in Europe, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07511, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010299, 2011. aHuss, M., Jouvet, G., Farinotti, D., and Bauder, A.: Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 815-829, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-815-2010, 2010. aHutton, G., Haller, L., and Bartram, J.: Global cost-benefit analysis of water supply and sanitation interventions, J. Water Health, 5, 481–502, https://doi.org/10.2166/wh.2007.009, 2007. aICOLD: Bulletin on risk assessment in dam safety management, Tech. rep., International Commission on Large Dams, 2003. aICOLD: Risk assessment in dam safety management, A reconnaissance of benefits, methods and current applications, Bulletin 130, International Commission on Large Dams, 2005. aIPCC: Glossary of terms, in: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, edited by: Field, C., Barros, V., Stocker, T., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K., Mastrandrea, M., Mach, K., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P., A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 555–564, 2012a. aIPCC: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 1st publ. edn., 2012b. a, bIPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 2013. aIPCC: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 2014. a, b, cJames, L. and Lee, R.: Economics of water resources planning, McGraw-Hill series in water resources and environmental engineering, McGraw-Hill Book Co., 615 pp., 1970. aJärvelä, J.: Flow resistance of flexible and stiff vegetation: a flume study with natural plants, J. Hydrol., 269, 44–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00193-2, 2002. aKaplan, S.: The Words of Risk Analysis, Risk Anal., 17, 407–417, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00881.x, 1997. aKaplan, S. and Garrick, B. J.: On The Quantitative Definition of Risk, Risk Anal., 1, 11–27, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x, 1981. aKay, A. L., Reynard, N. S., and Jones, R. G.: RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. I. Method and validation, J. Hydrol., 318, 151–162, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.012, 2006. aKazem, M., McPhee, D., Torkaman Rashid, A., and Kazem, A.: Climate change and economic approaches into water allocation: optimization via direct benefits of water – the case study of Rudbar Lorestan hydropower dam (Iran), Sustain. Water Resour. Manage., 2, 461–472, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-016-0067-2, 2016. aKhaliq, M., Ouarda, T., Ondo, J.-C., Gachon, P., and Bobée, B.: Frequency analysis of a sequence of dependent and/or non-stationary hydro-meteorological observations: A review, J. Hydrol., 329, 534–552, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.004, 2006. aKhazaei, M. R., Zahabiyoun, B., and Saghafian, B.: Assessment of climate change impact on floods using weather generator and continuous rainfall-runoff model, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1997–2006, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2416, 2012. aKingston, D. G., Todd, M. C., Taylor, R. G., Thompson, J. R., and Arnell, N. W.: Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040267, 2009. aKjeldsen, T., Macdonald, N., Lang, M., Mediero, L., Albuquerque, T., Bogdanowicz, E., Brázdil, R., Castellarin, A., David, V., Fleig, A., Gül, G., Kriauciuniene, J., Kohnová, S., Merz, B., Nicholson, O., Roald, L., Salinas, J., Sarauskiene, D., Šraj, M., Strupczewski, W., Szolgay, J., Toumazis, A., Vanneuville, W., Veijalainen, N., and Wilson, D.: Documentary evidence of past floods in Europe and their utility in flood frequency estimation, J. Hydrol., 517, 963–973, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.038, 2014. aKlipsch, J. and Hurst, M.: HEC-ResSim Reservoir System Simulation User's Manual, Tech. rep., USACE, Institute for Water Resources, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA, 2007. aKnutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J., and Meehl, G. A.: Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models, J. Climate, 23, 2739–2758, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1, 2010. aKondolf, G. M., Gao, Y., Annandale, G. W., Morris, G. L., Jiang, E., Zhang, J., Cao, Y., Carling, P., Fu, K., Guo, Q., Hotchkiss, R., Peteuil, C., Sumi, T., Wang, H.-W., Wang, Z., Wei, Z., Wu, B., Wu, C., and Yang, C. T.: Sustainable sediment management in reservoirs and regulated rivers: Experiences from five continents, Earth's Future, 2, 256–280, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000184, 2014. aKundzewicz, Z., Mata, L., Arnell, N., Doll, P., Kabat, P., Jimenez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Sen, Z., and Shiklomanov, I.: Freshwater resources and their management, in: Climate Change 2007, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M., Canziani, O., Palutikof, J., Van Der Linde, P., and Hanson, C., Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press edition, 173–210, 2007. aLanzante, J. R., Dixon, K. W., Nath, M. J., Whitlock, C. E., and Adams-Smith, D.: Some Pitfalls in Statistical Downscaling of Future Climate, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 791–803, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0046.1, 2018. aLawrence, D., Paquet, E., Gailhard, J., and Fleig, A. K.: Stochastic semi-continuous simulation for extreme flood estimation in catchments with combined rainfall–snowmelt flood regimes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1283–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1283-2014, 2014. aLewin, J., Ballard, G., and Bowles, D.: Spillway gate reliability in the context of overall dam failure risk, in: USSD Annual Lecture, Charleston, South Carolina, 2003. a, bLiu, Y.-J., Wang, T.-W., Cai, C.-F., Li, Z.-X., and Ch

    Similar works