Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Omecamtiv mecarbil in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, GALACTIC‐HF: baseline characteristics and comparison with contemporary clinical trials

Aims: The safety and efficacy of the novel selective cardiac myosin activator, omecamtiv mecarbil, in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is tested in the Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure (GALACTIC‐HF) trial. Here we describe the baseline characteristics of participants in GALACTIC‐HF and how these compare with other contemporary trials. Methods and Results: Adults with established HFrEF, New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA) ≥ II, EF ≤35%, elevated natriuretic peptides and either current hospitalization for HF or history of hospitalization/ emergency department visit for HF within a year were randomized to either placebo or omecamtiv mecarbil (pharmacokinetic‐guided dosing: 25, 37.5 or 50 mg bid). 8256 patients [male (79%), non‐white (22%), mean age 65 years] were enrolled with a mean EF 27%, ischemic etiology in 54%, NYHA II 53% and III/IV 47%, and median NT‐proBNP 1971 pg/mL. HF therapies at baseline were among the most effectively employed in contemporary HF trials. GALACTIC‐HF randomized patients representative of recent HF registries and trials with substantial numbers of patients also having characteristics understudied in previous trials including more from North America (n = 1386), enrolled as inpatients (n = 2084), systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg (n = 1127), estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 528), and treated with sacubitril‐valsartan at baseline (n = 1594). Conclusions: GALACTIC‐HF enrolled a well‐treated, high‐risk population from both inpatient and outpatient settings, which will provide a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of this novel therapy, as well as informing its potential future implementation

New intergeneric orchid hybrid found in Romania × Pseudorhiza nieschalkii (Senghas) P.F.Hunt nothosubsp. siculorum H.Kertész & N.Anghelescu, 2020.

We describe the first reported intergeneric, which naturally occurs between two subspecies belonging to different genera, Dactylorhiza fuchsii subsp. sooana (genus Dactylorhiza) and Pseudorchis albida subsp. tricuspis (genus Pseudorchis), as × Pseudorhiza nieschalkii (Senghas) P.F.Hunt nothosubsp. siculorum H.Kertész & N.Anghelescu, 2020. The hybrid was found and digitally photographed for the first time by Hajnalka Kertész in June, 2020, within Terra Siculorum, in one of the Natura 2000 protected areas, known as Harghita Mădăraș, ROSCI00090. Following detailed morphometric analysis using 67 characters and molecular karyological analyses, we identified this unique specimen as an intergeneric hybrid, new to science. The hybrid, an F1 generation plant, most likely representing a single intergeneric pollination event, is phenotypically intermediate between its parental species in most of the characters scored, but it significantly closely resembles Pseudorchis albida subsp. tricuspis parent. Since several individuals of the parental species occurred in near proximity, within 1-10 meters distance, we suggest that the production of this hybrid required a minimum travel distance of ca 1-10 meters, by the pollinators and frequent exchange of pollen between the parental species was very likely. The parental species and the hybrid, which display a considerable synchronicity in their flowering time, overlap in the pollinator community, sharing various species of Hymenopterans and Dipterans, very abundant in the heathland. This Terra Siculorum hybrid is thus best described as a rarely occurring intergeneric hybrid that shows strong Pseudorchis albida subsp. tricuspis parental dominance in inheritance patterns

Laser driven nuclear physics at ELI–NP

Summarization: High power lasers have proven being capable to produce high energy γ-rays, charged particles and neutrons, and to induce all kinds of nuclear reactions. At ELI, the studies with high power lasers will enter for the first time into new domains of power and intensities: 10 PW and 1023 W/cm2. While the development of laser based radiation sources is the main focus at the ELI-Beamlines pillar of ELI, at ELI-NP the studies that will benefit from High Power Laser System pulses will focus on Laser Driven Nuclear Physics (this TDR, acronym LDNP, associated to the E1 experimental area), High Field Physics and QED (associated to the E6 area) and fundamental research opened by the unique combination of the two 10 PW laser pulses with a gamma beam provided by the Gamma Beam System (associated to E7 area). The scientific case of the LDNP TDR encompasses studies of laser induced nuclear reactions, aiming for a better understanding of nuclear properties, of nuclear reaction rates in laser-plasmas, as well as on the development of radiation source characterization methods based on nuclear techniques. As an example of proposed studies: the promise of achieving solid-state density bunches of (very) heavy ions accelerated to about 10 MeV/nucleon through the RPA mechanism will be exploited to produce highly astrophysical relevant neutron rich nuclei around the N~126 waiting point, using the sequential fission-fusion scheme, complementary to any other existing or planned method of producing radioactive nuclei. The studies will be implemented predominantly in the E1 area of ELI-NP. However, many of them can be, in a first stage, performed in the E5 and/or E4 areas, where higher repetition laser pulses are available, while the harsh X-ray and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) environments are less damaging compared to E1. A number of options are discussed through the document, having an important impact on the budget and needed resources. Depending on the TDR review and subsequent project decisions, they may be taken into account for space reservation, while their detailed design and implementation will be postponed. The present TDR is the result of contributions from several institutions engaged in nuclear physics and high power laser research. A significant part of the proposed equipment can be designed, and afterwards can be built, only in close collaboration with (or subcontracting to) some of these institutions. A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is currently under preparation with each of these key partners as well as with others that are interested to participate in the design or in the future experimental program.Παρουσιάστηκε στο: Romanian Reports in Physic