Multi-decadal river flow variations in France

International audienceIn this article, multi-decadal variations in the French hydroclimate are investigated, with a specific focus on river flows. Based on long observed series, it is shown that river flows in France generally exhibit large multi-decadal variations in the instrumental period (defined in this study as the period from the late 19th century to the present), especially in spring. Differences of means between 21 yr periods of the 20th century as large as 40% are indeed found for many gauging stations. Multi-decadal spring river flow variations are associated with variations in spring precipitation and temperature. These multi-decadal variations in precipitation are themselves found to be driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation, more precisely by a multi-decadal oscillation in a sea level pressure dipole between western Europe and the eastern Atlantic. It is suggested that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, the main mode of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic-Europe sector, controls those variations in large-scale circulation and is therefore the main ultimate driver of multi-decadal variations in spring river flows. Potential multi-decadal variations in river flows in other seasons, and in particular summer, are also noted. As they are not associated with significant surface climate anomalies (i.e. temperature, precipitation) in summer, other mechanisms are investigated based on hydrological simulations. The impact of climate variations in spring on summer soil moisture, and the impact of soil moisture in summer on the runoff-to-precipitation ratio, could potentially play a role in multi-decadal summer river flow variations. The large amplitude of the multi-decadal variations in French river flows suggests that internal variability may play a very important role in the evolution of river flows during the next decades, potentially temporarily limiting, reversing or seriously aggravating the long-term impacts of anthropogenic climate change

RAPID applied to the SIM-France model

International audienceSIM-France is a large connected atmosphere/land surface/river/groundwater modelling system that simulates the water cycle throughout metropolitan France. The work presented in this study investigates the replacement of the river routing scheme in SIM-France by a river network model called RAPID to enhance the capacity to relate simulated flows to river gauges and to take advantage of the automated parameter estimation procedure of RAPID. RAPID was run with SIM-France over a 10-year period and results compared with those of the previous river routing scheme. We found that while the formulation of RAPID enhanced the functionality of SIM-France, the flow simulations are comparable in accuracy to those previously obtained by SIM-France. Sub-basin optimization of RAPID parameters was found to increase model efficiency. A single criterion for quantifying the quality of river flow simulations using several river gauges globally in a river network is developed that normalizes the square error of modelled flow to allow equal treatment of all gauging stations regardless of the magnitude of flow. The use of this criterion as the cost function for parameter estimation in RAPID allows better results than by increasing the degree of spatial variability in optimization of model parameters. Likewise, increased spatial variability of RAPID parameters through accounting for topography is shown to enhance model performance

Comparison of three downscaling methods in simulating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

International audienceStudies of the impact of climate change on water resources usually follow a top to bottom approach: a scenario of emissions is used to run a GCM simulation, which is downscaled (RCM and/or stastistical methods) and bias-corrected. Then, this data is used to force a hydrological model. Seldom, impact studies take into account all relevant uncertainties. In fact, many published studies only use one climate model and one downscaling technique. In this study, the outputs of an atmosphere-ocean regional climate model are downscaled and bias-corrected using three different techniques: a statistical method based on weather regimes, a quantile-mapping method and the method of the anomaly. The resulting data are used to force a distributed hydrological model to simulate the French Mediterranean basins. These are characterized by water scarcity and an increasing human pressure, which cause a demand in assessments on the impact of climate change hydrological systems. The purpose of the study is mainly methodological: the evaluation of the uncertainty related to the downscaling and bias-correction step. The periods chosen to compare the changes are the end of the 20th century (1970-2000) and the middle of the 21st century (2035-2065). The study shows that the three methods produce similar anomalies of the mean annual precipitation, but there are important differences, mainly in terms of spatial patterns. The study also shows that there are important differences in the anomalies of temperature. These uncertainties are amplified by the hydrological model. In some basins, the simulations do not agree in the sign of the anomalies and, in many others, the differences in amplitude of the anomaly are very important. Therefore, the uncertainty related to the downscaling and bias-correction of the climate simulation must be taken into account in order to better estimate the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a specific basin. The study also shows that according to the RCM simulation used and to the periods studied, there might be significant increases of winter precipitation on the Cévennes region of the Massif Central, which is already affected by flash floods, and significant decreases of summer precipitation in most of the region. This will cause a decrease in the average discharge in the middle of the 21st in most of the gauging stations studied, specially in summer. Winter and, maybe spring, in some areas, are the exception, as discharge may increase in some basins

Improvement of the solute transfer in a conceptual unsaturated zone scheme : a case study of the Seine River Basin

International audienceFor predicting the evolution of solute concentrations in groundwater and testing the impact of remediation policies, a coupling between the agronomical model STICS and the hydrogeological model MODCOU was implemented. Applied to the Seine river basin, this model represents accurately the temporal evolution of average nitrate concentrations in the aquifer, but with large local errors. We propose an improvement of the simple unsaturated zone scheme NonsatSW used in STICS-MODCOU. The modifications are based on a comparison with the mechanistic model Metis considered as a reference as it solves Richards'equation. A more realistic saturation profile and a varying percolation rate are integrated in NonsatSW. This new model, named NonsatVG, is assessed by a comparison with NonsatSW and Metis. In an ideal case, NonsatVG generates a solute transfer and a dispersion closer to that of Metis than NonsatSW. In real cases, without additional calibration, NonsatVG and Metis simulate better the average transfer velocities of the observed nitrate profiles. Furthermore, modifications in NonsatVG give a direct link between the water table depth and the saturation profile. We obtain therefore, as in Metis, an evolution of the solute transfer velocity depending on the piezometric level. These dynamics are not simulated in NonsatSW. Despite a modified water transfer through the unsaturated zone, NonsatVG is also as valid as NonsatSW in the modelling of water transfer to the saturated zone. Finally, an application on the Seine basin show that solute transfer velocities are lower with NonsatVG than with NonsatSW, but in better agreement with literature

Reconstitution par arbres de régression du rayonnement visible descendant horaire sur la France continentale, à partir de données in situ et de simulations : Spatialisation et vérification sur des données indépendantes

49 p.La nécessité de disposer sur toute la France de séries horaires de rayonnement visible descendant a mené à une reconstitution en deux étapes, à partir de paramètres facilement disponibles : * Une reconstitution en des points où sont disponibles la durée d'insolation, éventuellement des résultats de simulations Safran et des observations de nature et d'étendue des couches nuageuses. La méthode de reconstitution employée est basée sur des moyennes d'ensembles d'arbres de régression. Cette méthode permet de prendre en compte les non linéarités entre les divers intrants météorologiques. Elle est comparée avec d'autres ajustements non-linéaires. Les critères de choix entre les divers algorithmes statistiques sont : la qualité des résultats, la rapidité des apprentissages et la facilité des maintenances logicielles. On n'a pas rencontré de contradiction entre ces 3 critères. Des liaisons sont d'abord établies entre le rayonnement horaire et les autres paramètres météorologiques sur toutes les stations disposant de l'intégralité des données nécessaires. Elles sont d'abord testées par des méthodes de cross-validation sur ces mêmes stations, puis appliquées en tous les points disposant de mesure simultanées de durée d'insolation et de nébulosité (environ un par département). Ces pseudo-observations supplémentaires viennent compléter le réseau d'observations de rayonnement horaire, dont la répartition spatiale est très irrégulière. * La spatialisation à l'échelle de Safran (maille de 8'8km) est alors effectuée par krigeage ordinaire. La validation de ces traitements a porté sur 11 stations indépendantes, non gérées par Météo-France, et sur une période (2004) n'ayant servi à aucun réglage

A Past Discharges Assimilation System for Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts over France - Part 1: Description and Validation of the Assimilation System

Two Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Systems (ESPSs) have been set up at Météo-France. They are based on the French SIM distributed hydrometeorological model. A deterministic analysis run of SIM is used to initialize the two ESPSs. In order to obtain a better initial state, a past discharges assimilation system has been implemented into this analysis SIM run, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). Its role is to improve the model soil moisture by using streamflow observations in order to better simulate streamflow. The skills of the assimilation system were assessed for a 569-day period on six different configurations, including two different physics schemes of the model (the use of an exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity or not) and, for each one, three different ways of considering the model soil moisture in the BLUE state variables. Respect of the linearity hypothesis of the BLUE was verified by assessing of the impact of iterations of the BLUE. The configuration including the use of the exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity and the combination of the moisture of the two soil layers in the state variable showed a significant improvement of streamflow simulations. It led to a significantly better simulation than the reference one, and the lowest soil moisture corrections. These results were confirmed by the study of the impacts of the past discharge assimilation system on a set of 49 independent stations.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

A past discharges assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 1: Description and validation of the assimilation system

International audienceTwo Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Systems (ESPSs) have been set up at M´et´eo-France. They are based on the French SIM distributed hydrometeorological model. A deterministic analysis run of SIM is used to initialize the two ESPSs. In order to obtain a better initial state, a past discharges assimilation system has been implemented into this analysis SIM run, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). Its role is to improve the model soil moisture by using streamflow observations in order to better simulate streamflow. The skills of the assimilation system were assessed for a 569-day period on six different configurations, including two different physics schemes of the model (the use of an exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity or not) and, for each one, three different ways of considering the model soil moisture in the BLUE state variables. Respect of the linearity hypothesis of the BLUE was verified by assessing of the impact of iterations of the BLUE. The configuration including the use of the exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity and the combination of the moisture of the two soil layers in the state variable showed a significant improvement of streamflow simulations. It led to a significantly better simulation than the reference one, and the lowest soil moisture corrections. These results were confirmed by the study of the impacts of the past discharge assimilation system on a set of 49 independent stations

River network routing on the NHDPlus dataset

International audienceThe mapped rivers and streams of the contiguous United States are available in a geographic information system (GIS) dataset called National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus). This hydrographic dataset has about 3 million river and water body reaches along with information on how they are connected into net- works. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) provides stream- flow observations at about 20 thousand gauges located on theNHDPlus river network.Ariver networkmodel called Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) is developed for the NHDPlus river network whose lateral inflow to the river network is calculated by a land surface model. A matrix-based version of the Muskingum method is developed herein, which RAPID uses to calculate flow and volume of water in all reaches of a river network with many thousands of reaches, including at ungauged locations. Gauges situated across river basins (not only at basin outlets) are used to automatically optimize the Muskingum parameters and to assess river flow computations, hence allowing the diagnosis of runoff com- putations provided by land surfacemodels.RAPIDis applied to theGuadalupe and SanAntonioRiver basins in Texas, where flow wave celerities are estimated at multiple locations using 15-min data and can be reproduced reasonably with RAPID. This river model can be adapted for parallel computing and although the matrix method initially adds a large overhead, river flow results can be obtained faster than with the traditionalMuskingummethod when using a few processing cores, as demonstrated in a synthetic study using the upper Mississippi River basin

Modelling the water budget and the riverflows of the Maritsa basin in Bulgaria

International audienceA soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer model coupled with a macroscale distributed hydrological model was used to simulate the water cycle for a large region in Bulgaria. To do so, an atmospheric forcing was built for two hydrological years (1 October 1995 to 30 September 1997), at an eight km resolution. The impact of the human activities on the rivers (especially hydropower or irrigation) was taken into account. An improvement of the hydrometeorological model was made: for better simulation of summer riverflow, two additional reservoirs were added to simulate the slow component of the runoff. Those reservoirs were calibrated using the observed data of the 1st year, while the 2nd year was used for validation. 56 hydrologic stations and 12 dams were used for the model calibration while 41 river gauges were used for the validation of the model. The results compare well with the daily-observed discharges, with good results obtained over more than 25% of the river gauges. The simulated snow depth was compared to daily measurements at 174 stations and the evolution of the snow water equivalent was validated at 5 sites. The process of melting and refreezing of snow was found to be important in this region. The comparison of the normalized values of simulated versus measured soil moisture showed good correlation. The surface water budget shows large spatial variations due to the elevation influence on the precipitation, soil properties and vegetation variability. An inter-annual difference was observed in the water cycle as the first year was more influenced by Mediterranean climate, while the second year was characterised by continental influence. The energy budget shows a dominating sensible heat component in summer, due to the fact that the water stress limits the evaporation. This study is a first step for the implementation of an operational hydrometeorological model that could be used for real time monitoring and forecasting of water budget components and river flow in Bulgaria