Meta-Regression Estimates for CGE Models: A Case Study for Input Substitution Elasticities in Production Agriculture

The selection of appropriate parameters for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models critically affects the results of applied economic modeling exercises. Valid and reliable parameter selection models are needed, and typically comprise direct estimation, expert opinion, or copycatting of results from seminal studies. The purpose of this study is to use meta-analysis to summarize and more accurately estimate elasticities of input substitution, specifically between labor and other inputs in agricultural production. We construct a comprehensive database of elasticity estimates through an extensive literature review, and perform a meta-regression analysis to identify structural sources of variation in elasticity estimates sampled from primary studies. The use of meta-analysis contributes to improved baseline analysis in CGE simulations because it allows for the computation of input parameters tailored to a specific CGE model setup. We correct for variations in research design, which are typically constant within studies, and account for bias associated with undue selection effects associated with editorial publication decision processes. Improved accuracy and knowledge of the distribution of imputed input parameters derived from a meta-analysis contributes to improved performance of CGE sensitivity analyses.meta-analysis, cross-price elasticity, input substitu¬tion, agricultural production, CGE parameters, Demand and Price Analysis, C13, C68, Q13,

Farmland Allocation along the Rural-Urban Gradient: The Impacts of Urbanization and Urban Sprawl

In the vicinity of a city, farmers are confronted with increasing agricultural land prices and rents along the rural-urban gradient, but they concurrently enjoy the advantages associated with proximity to a larger and wealthier consumer base. We hypothesize that farmers transition from low-value, land-intensive \traditional" crops to high-value, labor-intensive \specialized" crops on parcels located closer to urban centers. Once returns to development of a parcel exceed the profits associated with farming, exurban farmers may sell their land for conversion to urban use. Urban pressure in the rural-urban fringe intensifies as cities expand. We differentiate between a gradual process of urban growth (or urbanization) and urban sprawl. Utilizing farmland fragmentation measures as indicators of sprawl, we hypothesize that urban sprawl burdens \traditional" farms to the extent that they accelerate the transition to specialized crops or convert farmland to urban use. We use crop-specific land cover data at the level of grid cells and a state-of-the-art system of spatially correlated simultaneous equations with data for the metropolitan area of Indianapolis, IN and its immediate hinterland. Our initial empirical results corroborate that accelerated urban development around Indianapolis in the 1990s is associated with land uses characterized by fewer field crops and more idle land.land use, urban sprawl, agriculture, specialized crops, spatial econometrics, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Land Economics/Use, C31, O13, Q15, R14,

GEOGRAPHIC AND INSTITUTIONAL DETERMINANTS OF REAL INCOME:A SPATIO-TEMPORAL SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION APPROACH

This paper tests a series of prominent hypotheses regarding the determinants of per-capita income using a novel spatial econometric approach to control for spillovers among neighboring countries and for spatially correlated omitted variables. We use simultaneous equations to identify alternative channels through which country characteristics might affect income, and then test the robustness of those effects. We find support for both “institutionalist” and “geographic” determinants of income. A time-varying index of institutional quality has a strong independent effect on current income, but there is also a persistent effect of geographic factors such as seasonal frost, malaria transmission, and coastal location, which influence income through their links to agricultural output, health, urbanization and trade. The data cover 95 countries across the world from 1960 through 2002, which we use to construct a pooled dataset of nine 5-year averages centered on 1960, 1965, and so on through 2000. We use both limited and full information estimators, partly based on a generalized moments (GM) estimator for spatial autoregressive coefficients, allowing for spatial error correlation, correlation across equations, and the presence of spatially lagged dependent variableseconomic growth, geography, institutions, spatial econometrics, simultaneous equations

Biology and potential biogeochemical impacts of novel predatory flavobacteria

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution June 2010Predatory bacteria are ubiquitous in aquatic environments and may be important players in the ecology and biogeochemistry of microbial communities. Three novel strains belonging to two genera of marine flavobacteria, Olleya and Tenacibaculum, were cultured from coastal sediments and found to be predatory on other bacteria on surfaces. Two published species of the genus Tenacibaculum were also observed to grow by lysis of prey bacteria, raising the possibility that predation may be a widespread lifestyle amongst marine flavobacteria, which are diverse and abundant in a variety of marine environments. The marine flavobacterial clade is known to include species capable of photoheterotrophy, scavenging of polymeric organic substances, pathogenesis on animals, the degradation and lysis of phytoplankton blooms and, now, predation on bacterial communities. Strains from the two genera were found to exhibit divergent prey specificities and growth yields when growing predatorily. Olleya sp. predatory cells accumulated to an order of magnitude greater cell densities than Tenacibaculum sp. cells on equivalent prey cell densities. Experiments were conducted to constrain the potential of the novel isolates to affect prey communities under more environmentally relevant conditions. An investigation of the minimum number of predatory cells needed to generate clearings of prey cells found that the inoculation of individual predatory flavobacteria cells can ultimately result in dense lytic swarms. In some cases, the susceptibility of particular prey species to lysis by a flavobacterial predator was found to vary based on the growth state of the prey cells or the presence of their spent growth media. A novel methodology for the experimental study of biofilms was used to assess the impact of exposure to predatory marine flavobacteria on the release of macronutrients from prey biofilms. The Olleya sp. predator had a stimulative effect on macronutrient release while the Tenacibaculum sp. did not, further suggesting the two groups of predators are adapted to different ecological niches.Support by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Division of Molecular and Cellular Biosciences Grant (MCB- 0348425), the MIT Student Assistance Fund, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Academic Programs Office, WHOI Coastal Ocean Institute (COI) and WHOI Ocean Venture Fund grant, COI and the WHOI Ocean Life Institute

Environmental regulation and competitiveness

The potential relationship between domestic environmental regulation and international competitiveness has evoked various speculations. The common neoclassical train of thought is that strict environmental regulation is detrimental to the competitiveness of industry, and that it induces phenomena such as ecological dumping, ecological capital flight, and regulatory ‘chill’ in environmental standards. A different view is that strict environmental regulation triggers industry’s innovation potential, and subsequently increases its competitiveness. The impact of environmental regulation on competitiveness has been analyzed in terms of international capital movements, new firm formation, and international trade. This paper focuses on a statistically rigorous analysis of international trade studies, using a technique that is known as meta-analysis. The paper presents a statistically supported evaluation of the literature, in order to assess what the main conclusions regarding the relationship between environmental regulation and competitiveness are when it comes to studies on international trade flows. The synthesis of the literature is subsequently used to present guidelines for future primary research in this area

Meta-analysis: A Tool for Upgrading Inputs of Macroeconomic Policy Models

Meta-analysis is a research method to synthesise previously obtained researchresults. It is best seen as a statistical approach towards reviewing and summarising theliterature. This paper aims to introduce and critically review the research method ofmeta-analysis and to illustrate its potential use in applied economic policy analysis.Special attention will be paid to the possibilities for value transfer and thepossibilities to improve the calibration of existing macroeconomic policy models

How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy?

This paper combines elements of growth accounting and numerical general equilibrium analysis to produce an alternative micro-to-macro modelling approach. This is used to evaluate the macroeconomic impact on the Scottish economy of the human capital generated by a single graduation cohort from further education colleges. The macroeconomic impact is found to be significant and larger than growth accounting would suggest due to the associated endogenous investment, employment and competitiveness effects. From a policy perspective this identifies the importance of the conventional teaching role of education institutions and the key function played by further education colleges in this process