MACSUR - Second Phase Report

In order to overcome the rigorous thematic orientation during the first phase of MACSUR with three groups organized according to academic fields, a new structure was developed for MACSUR2. In cross cutting activities topics were identified that required the interaction and collaboration of researchers from a range of different scientific disciplines. During the second phase of MACSUR new groups of researchers came on board. This made it possible to extend the number of regional case studies. In some larger countries like Italy, Poland und UK more than one group were working on different regions. An overview was presented at the workshop for policymakers in Brussels in May 2016. Deliverables and milestonesExcellent joint research in the particular field to respond to questions in the Strategic Research Agenda:Researchers from University of Leeds, Aberystwyth University and Scotland's Rural College have developed a novel method for a spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impact of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.Researchers from University of Leeds, Centre for Agricultural Research of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (Colombia) and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (Germany) have developed a novel method to estimating the land use changes for maize and soybean production by 2100 on a global scale.Increase and facilitate transnational cooperation and coordination between excellent researchers and research organisations, building a progressive and long-lasting network:Collaboration with agricultural, meteorological agencies and Escuela Politécnica Nacional from Ecuador to develop a research line on agricultural impacts and adaptation to climate change, with focus on water resourcesAdaptation in Austrian cattle and milk production (ADAPT-CATMILK). Austrian Climate Research Programme research grant. Partners: WIFO, BOKU, University Cranfield, Thünen InstituteCoordination of Spanish participation in the Joint Programming Initiative "Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE-JPI)". Phase 1 http://www.chil.org/profile/spanish.macsur/main.Technical efficiency and challenges of the agricultural sector in Austria and New Zealand. Research proposal submitted to the Austrian Chamber of Agriculture.Coordination of a joint proposal in the Joint Programming Initiative "Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE-JPI)". Phase 2 http://www.chil.org/profile/spanish.macsur/main (Partners participating: MTT Agrifood Finland, University of Bonn, INRA France, Polytechnical University of Madrid )Submission of two research projects with partners involved in MACSUR and private partners to the call FACCE/ERANET+ Climate Smart AgricultureJPI FACCE - SURPLUS. Coordination of a joint application “Towards sustainably intensified and resilient production systems in European Agriculture. Prospects for integrating dairy and bioenergy production systems (DAIRYENERGY)”, submitted 04.03.2015. MACSUR partners from Norway, Belgium, Italy."H2020 Call: H2020-SFS-2016-2017; (Sustainable Food Security – Resilient and resource-efficient value chains) Topic: SFS-02-2016. Stage II. DIVERSify: Designing InnoVative plant teams for Ecosystem Resilience and agricultural Sustainability"Links created to other EU groups: with the collaboration started with Edwin Haas (Germany) and Stefan Olin (Sweden). There is an Australian link created with Matthew Harrison. In Europe there is also an active contact in Germany (for the Monica model) and in Poland (for Stics).Develop research capacity in the particular field, to join learning/training activities (e.g. mobility) and to share infrastructures.Over the reporting period nearly 40 visiting scientists were hosted in MACSUR labs for joint research/ learning/training activities. In total, 31 PhD theses were awarded over the reporting period.AgMIP, Memorandum of Understanding signed 2014-02-19Global Research Alliance's Animal Health and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Intensity Network and MACSUR's Task on Animal Health and Greenhouse Gas Emissions organising a joint workshop for MACSUR 2H2020 SFS42-2016. PEANUTSSA Stage-1-proposal submitted February 2016. MACSUR partners Thünen Institute, ILVO, SRUC, James Hutton Institute and non-MACSUR members.FACCE ERAGAS 'CEDERS' (2017-2020

Development of a conceptual framework for integrated analysis and assessment of agricultural systems in SEAMLESS-IF

Production Economics,

Methodological concepts for integrated assessment of agricultural and environmental policies in SEAMLESS-IF

Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

MACSUR Phase 1 Final Administrative Report: Public release

MACSUR's foremost charge is improving the methodology for integrative inter-disciplinary modelling of European agriculture. In addition to technical changes, improvements include the involvement of stakeholders for setting research priorities, scenarios (if-then evaluations), and model parameters to more realistic or region-specific values. The Knowledge Hub currently brings together 300 members from 18 countries and has generated 300 scientific papers, over 500 presentations and 20 workshops and conferences within the first three years. Scientific results are communicated in conferences and workshops, where policymakers take part by invitation or because of professional interest. These events also provide opportunities for direct dialogues between policy­makers and scientists. The primary form of output of the research network is scientific publications that are cited in policy documents by relevant administrative depart­ments, ministries, intergovern­mental agencies, and directorate-generals, and non-governmental interest groups. MACSUR members also contribute directly to policy documents as authors, e.g. the EEA's indicator report on CC impacts or the IPCC's 5th assessment report's chapter on food security.

General outline for a two-year extension of MACSUR: Cross-cutting activities

FACCE MACSUR has indicated a possible extension of funding by two years until May 2017 (phase 2). For phase 2, hub and theme coordinators suggest the following main activities, that will be discussed during the remainder of the meeting and in the coming months: Evolution, upscaling, and transfer of knowledge gained in regional case studies; Assessment of additional scenarios of socio-economic and climate trends; Further development of an interdisciplinary scientific community; Extending scaling methods for crop models to the European and global scale; Intensification of feed quality and animal health modelling with climate change; Economic models from farm to global level capable of reflecting climate change

Disruptions of Anaerobic Gut Bacteria Are Associated with Stroke and Post-stroke Infection : a Prospective Case-Control Study

In recent years, preclinical studies have illustrated the potential role of intestinal bacterial composition in the risk of stroke and post-stroke infections. The results of these studies suggest that bacteria capable of producing volatile metabolites, including trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO) and butyrate, play opposing, yet important roles in the cascade of events leading to stroke. However, no large-scale studies have been undertaken to determine the abundance of these bacterial communities in stroke patients and to assess the impact of disrupted compositions of the intestinal microbiota on patient outcomes. In this prospective case-control study, rectal swabs from 349 ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke patients (median age, 71 years; IQR: 67-75) were collected within 24 h of hospital admission. Samples were subjected to 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing and subsequently compared with samples obtained from 51 outpatient age- and sex-matched controls (median age, 72 years; IQR, 62-80) with similar cardiovascular risk profiles but without active signs of stroke. Plasma protein biomarkers were analyzed using a combination of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS). Alpha and beta diversity analyses revealed higher disruption of intestinal communities during ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke compared with non-stroke matched control subjects. Additionally, we observed an enrichment of bacteria implicated in TMAO production and a loss of butyrate-producing bacteria. Stroke patients displayed two-fold lower plasma levels of TMAO than controls (median 1.97 vs 4.03 mu M, Wilcoxonp <0.0001). Finally, lower abundance of butyrate-producing bacteria within 24 h of hospital admission was an independent predictor of enhanced risk of post-stroke infection (odds ratio 0.77,p = 0.005), but not of mortality or functional patient outcome. In conclusion, aberrations in trimethylamine- and butyrate-producing gut bacteria are associated with stroke and stroke-associated infections.Peer reviewe

Early diagnosis of PROstate CANcer for Black men (PROCAN-B): identifying barriers and facilitators

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in the UK with incidence rates projected to rise. Black men are at least twice as likely to develop prostate cancer as white men and the mortality rate is twice as high, evidencing substantial cancer inequalities. Although there currently is no national screening programme for prostate cancer, it is vital that black men are aware of prostate cancer and their elevated risk as this can encourage help-seeking behaviour, and in turn early diagnosis. Early diagnosis can save lives, yet black men tend to present at later stages. This study aims to investigate barriers and facilitators to early diagnosis of prostate cancer for black men in order to tackle this cancer inequality

Different paths to the modern state in Europe: the interaction between domestic political economy and interstate competition

Theoretical work on state formation and capacity has focused mostly on early modern Europe and on the experience of western European states during this period. While a number of European states monopolized domestic tax collection and achieved gains in state capacity during the early modern era, for others revenues stagnated or even declined, and these variations motivated alternative hypotheses for determinants of fiscal and state capacity. In this study we test the basic hypotheses in the existing literature making use of the large date set we have compiled for all of the leading states across the continent. We find strong empirical support for two prevailing threads in the literature, arguing respectively that interstate wars and changes in economic structure towards an urbanized economy had positive fiscal impact. Regarding the main point of contention in the theoretical literature, whether it was representative or authoritarian political regimes that facilitated the gains in fiscal capacity, we do not find conclusive evidence that one performed better than the other. Instead, the empirical evidence we have gathered lends supports to the hypothesis that when under pressure of war, the fiscal performance of representative regimes was better in the more urbanized-commercial economies and the fiscal performance of authoritarian regimes was better in rural-agrarian economie

MACSUR — Summary of research results, phase 1: 2012-2015

MACSUR — Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security — is a  knowledge hub that was formally created in June 2012 as a European scientific network.  The strategic aim of the knowledge hub is to create a coordinated and globally visible  network of European researchers and research groups, with intra- and interdisciplinary  interaction and shared expertise creating synergies for the development of scientific  resources (data, models, methods) to model the impacts of climate change on agriculture  and related issues. This objective encompasses a wide range of political and sociological  aspects, as well as the technical development of modelling capacity through impact  assessments at different scales and assessing uncertainties in model outcomes. We achieve  this through model intercomparisons and model improvements, harmonization and  exchange of data sets, training in the selection and use of models, assessment of benefits  of ensemble modelling, and cross-disciplinary linkages of models and tools. The project  engages with a diverse range of stakeholder groups and to support the development of  resources for capacity building of individuals and countries. Commensurate with this broad  challenge, a network of currently 300 scientists (measured by the number of individuals on  the central e-mail list) from 18 countries evolved from the original set of research groups  selected by FACCE.  In the spirit of creating and maintaining a network for intra- and interdisciplinary  knowledge exchange, network activities focused on meetings of researchers for sharing  expertise and, depending on group resources (both financial and personnel), development  of collaborative research activities. The outcome of these activities is the enhanced  knowledge of the individual researchers within the network, contributions to conference  presentations and scholarly papers, input to stakeholders and the general public, organised  courses for students, junior and senior scientists. The most visible outcome are the  scientific results of the network activities, represented in the contributions of MACSUR  members to the impressive number of more than 200 collaborative papers in peer-reviewed  publications.  Here, we present a selection of overview and cross-disciplinary papers which include  contributions from MACSUR members. It highlights the major scientific challenges  addressed, and the methodological solutions and insights obtained. Over and above these  highlights, major achievements have been reached regarding data collection, data  processing, evaluation, model testing, modelling assessments of the effects of agriculture  on ecosystem services, policy, and development of scenarios. Details on these  achievements in the context of MACSUR can be found in our online publication FACCE  MACSUR Reports at http://ojs.macsur.eu