What a new pandemic model reveals about the effectiveness of lockdowns

Working out the trade-offs between saving lives and the economic damage of lockdown is complex. Marc Fleurbaey (Princeton), Hélène Fleurbaey (National Institute of Science and Technology) and Richard Bradley (LSE) have developed a model showing how different interventions can change the course of the pandemic. They conclude that the length of lockdown and early testing are crucial factors

Frequency metrology of the 1S-3S transition of hydrogen : contribution to the proton charge radius puzzle

La mesure précise de la fréquence de la transition 1S-3S de l'atome d'hydrogène est d'un grand intérêt pour l'énigme du rayon de charge du proton, qui a pour origine les résultats récents de la spectroscopie de l'hydrogène muonique. Nous excitons la transition à deux photons 1S-3S, dans un jet d'atomes d'hydrogène, à l'aide d'un laser continu à 205 nm obtenu par somme de fréquences dans un cristal non-linéaire. La fréquence de la transition est mesurée par rapport à l'horloge à césium du LNE-SYRTE à l'aide d'un peigne de fréquence. L'enregistrement du signal pour différentes valeurs d'un champ magnétique appliqué permet d'estimer la distribution de vitesse des atomes du jet et d'en déduire l'effet Doppler du deuxième ordre. Les autres effets systématiques qui déplacent la transition ont été pris en compte : interférence quantique, déplacement lumineux, collisions. Une étude systématique en fonction de la pression a permis de montrer que la distribution de vitesse ne dépend pas de la pression et de déterminer le déplacement collisionnel. Finalement, une valeur de la fréquence de transition 1S-3S est obtenue avec une incertitude d'environ 5 kHz, ou 1,7 10^-12 en valeur relative. Elle est en très bon accord avec la valeur recommandée par le CODATA. Cette nouvelle mesure contribue à la recherche autour de l'énigme du rayon du proton.The precise measurement of the 1S-3S transition frequency of hydrogen could have a great impact on the proton charge radius puzzle, which results from the recent spectroscopy of muonic hydrogen. In our experiment, the two-photon 1S-3S transition is excited in a hydrogen atomic beam, with a continuous-wave 205-nm laser which is obtained by sum frequency generation in a non-linear crystal. The transition frequency is measured with respect to the LNE-SYRTE Cs clock by means of a frequency comb. Recording the signal for several values of an applied magnetic field allows to estimate the velocity distribution of the atoms in the beam and deduce the second-order Doppler shift. Other frequency-shifting systematic effects have been taken into account: cross-damping, light shift, collisions. A complete study has shown that the velocity distribution does not depend significantly on the pressure, and allowed to determine the collisional shift. Eventually, a value of the 1S-3S transition frequency is obtained with an uncertainty of about 5 kHz, or a relative uncertainty of 1.7 10^-12. It is in very good agreement with the CODATA recommended value. This new measurement contributes to the ongoing search to solve the proton radius puzzle

Métrologie de la fréquence de transition 1S-3S dans l'hydrogène : contribution au débat sur le rayon de charge du proton

The precise measurement of the 1S-3S transition frequency of hydrogen could have a great impact on the proton charge radius puzzle, which results from the recent spectroscopy of muonic hydrogen. In our experiment, the two-photon 1S-3S transition is excited in a hydrogen atomic beam, with a continuous-wave 205-nm laser which is obtained by sum frequency generation in a non-linear crystal. The transition frequency is measured with respect to the LNE-SYRTE Cs clock by means of a frequency comb. Recording the signal for several values of an applied magnetic field allows to estimate the velocity distribution of the atoms in the beam and deduce the second-order Doppler shift. Other frequency-shifting systematic effects have been taken into account: cross-damping, light shift, collisions. A complete study has shown that the velocity distribution does not depend significantly on the pressure, and allowed to determine the collisional shift. Eventually, a value of the 1S-3S transition frequency is obtained with an uncertainty of about 5 kHz, or a relative uncertainty of 1.7 10^-12. It is in very good agreement with the CODATA recommended value. This new measurement contributes to the ongoing search to solve the proton radius puzzle.La mesure précise de la fréquence de la transition 1S-3S de l'atome d'hydrogène est d'un grand intérêt pour l'énigme du rayon de charge du proton, qui a pour origine les résultats récents de la spectroscopie de l'hydrogène muonique. Nous excitons la transition à deux photons 1S-3S, dans un jet d'atomes d'hydrogène, à l'aide d'un laser continu à 205 nm obtenu par somme de fréquences dans un cristal non-linéaire. La fréquence de la transition est mesurée par rapport à l'horloge à césium du LNE-SYRTE à l'aide d'un peigne de fréquence.L'enregistrement du signal pour différentes valeurs d'un champ magnétique appliqué permet d'estimer la distribution de vitesse des atomes du jet et d'en déduire l'effet Doppler du deuxième ordre. Les autres effets systématiques qui déplacent la transition ont été pris en compte : interférence quantique, déplacement lumineux, collisions. Une étude systématique en fonction de la pression a permis de montrer que la distribution de vitesse ne dépend pas de la pression et de déterminer le déplacement collisionnel.Finalement, une valeur de la fréquence de transition 1S-3S est obtenue avec une incertitude d'environ 5 kHz, ou 1,7 10^-12 en valeur relative. Elle est en très bon accord avec la valeur recommandée par le CODATA. Cette nouvelle mesure contribue à la recherche autour de l'énigme du rayon du proton

Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility

International audienceMigration is a widely used adaptation strategy to climate change impacts. Yet resource constraints caused by such impacts may limit the ability to migrate, thereby leading to immobility. Here we provide a quantitative, global analysis of reduced international mobility due to resource deprivation caused by climate change. We incorporate both migration dynamics and within-region income distributions in an integrated assessment model. We show that climate change induces decreases in emigration of lowest-income levels by over 10% in 2100 for medium development and climate scenarios compared with no climate change and by up to 35% for more pessimistic scenarios including catastrophic damages. This effect would leave resource-constrained populations extremely vulnerable to both subsequent climate change impacts and increased poverty

Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change

Migration may be increasingly used as adaptation strategy to reduce populations’ exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Conversely, either through lack of information about risks at destinations or as outcome of balancing those risks, people might move to locations where they are more exposed to climatic risk than at their origin locations. Climate damages, whose quantification informs understanding of societal exposure and vulnerability, are typically computed by integrated assessment models (IAMs). Yet migration is hardly included in commonly used IAMs. In this paper, we investigate how border policy, a key influence on international migration flows, affects exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. To this aim, we include international migration and remittance dynamics explicitly in a widely used IAM employing a gravity model and compare four scenarios of border policy. We then quantify effects of border policy on population distribution, income, exposure, and vulnerability and of CO2 emissions and temperature increase for the period 2015 to 2100 along five scenarios of future development and climate change. We find that most migrants tend to move to areas where they are less exposed and vulnerable than where they came from. Our results confirm that migration and remittances can positively contribute to climate change adaptation. Crucially, our findings imply that restrictive border policy can increase exposure and vulnerability, by trapping people in areas where they are more exposed and vulnerable than where they would otherwise migrate. These results suggest that the consequences of migration policy should play a greater part in deliberations about international climate policy

Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility

International audienceMigration is a widely used adaptation strategy to climate change impacts. Yet resource constraints caused by such impacts may limit the ability to migrate, thereby leading to immobility. Here we provide a quantitative, global analysis of reduced international mobility due to resource deprivation caused by climate change. We incorporate both migration dynamics and within-region income distributions in an integrated assessment model. We show that climate change induces decreases in emigration of lowest-income levels by over 10% in 2100 for medium development and climate scenarios compared with no climate change and by up to 35% for more pessimistic scenarios including catastrophic damages. This effect would leave resource-constrained populations extremely vulnerable to both subsequent climate change impacts and increased poverty

Lives v livelihoods, part 2: suppression or control?

Limiting the length of lockdown is key to minimising the damage the pandemic inflicts on livelihoods. Matthew Adler (Duke University/LSE), Richard Bradley (LSE), Maddalena Ferranna (Princeton), Marc Fleurbaey (Princeton and Paris School of Economics), James Hammitt (Harvard) and Alex Voorhoeve (LSE) compare the benefit-cost and social welfare approaches to doing so. They find early suppression is often best, if it can be ensured that those on lower incomes bear a smaller share of the economic burden of lockdown

Electric-quadrupole and magnetic-dipole contributions to the n2+n3 band of carbon dioxide near 3.3 micron

The recent detections of electric-quadrupole (E2) transitions in water vapor and magnetic-dipole (M1) transitions in carbon dioxide have opened a new field in molecular spectroscopy. While in their present status, the spectroscopic databases provide only electric-dipole (E1) transitions for polyatomic molecules (H2O, CO2, N2O, CH4, O3), the possible impact of weak E2 and M1 bands to the modeling of the Earth and planetary atmospheres has to be addressed. This is especially important in the case of carbon dioxide for which E2 and M1 bands may be located in spectral windows of weak E1 absorption. In the present work, a high sensitivity absorption spectrum of CO2 was recorded by optical feedback cavity enhanced absorption Spectroscopy (OFCEAS) in the 3.3 micron transparency window of carbon dioxide. The studied spectral interval corresponds to the region where M1 transitions of the n2+n3 band of carbon dioxide were recently identified in the spectrum of the Martian atmosphere. Here, both M1 and E2 transitions of the n2+n3 band were detected by OFCEAS. Using recent ab initio calculations of the E2 spectrum of 12C16O2, intensity measurements of five M1 lines and three E2 lines allow us to disentangle the M1 and E2 contributions. Indeed, E2 intensity values (on the order of a few 10-29 cm per molecule) are found in reasonable agreement with ab initio calculations while the intensity of the M1 lines (including an E2 contribution) agree very well with recent very long path measurements by Fourier Transform spectroscopy. We thus conclude that both E2 and M1 transitions should be systematically incorporated in the CO2 line list provided by spectroscopic databases