Evaluation of the Spatial Distribution of Predictors of Fire Regimes in China from 2003 to 2016

Published: 13 October 2023Wildfire has extensive and profound impacts on forest structure and function. Therefore, it is important to study the spatial and temporal patterns of forest fire regimes and their drivers in order to better understand the feedbacks between climate change, fire disturbance, and forest ecosystems. Based on the Global Fire Atlas dataset, three forest fire regime components (fire occurrence density, burned rate, and median fire size) were extracted for China from 2003 to 2016. Three statistical models (Boosted Regression Tree, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine) were used to systematically analyze the relationships between patterns of forest fire disturbance and climate, human activities, vegetation, and topography in China, as well as their spatial heterogeneity in different climatic regions. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of forest fires is heterogeneous, and different forest fire regime components are predicted by different factors. At the national level, the distribution of forest fire regimes mainly corresponds to climatic factors, although the relationship between median fire size and predictors is obscure. At the scale of each ecoregion, the main climate predictors of forest fire occurrence density and burned rate change from temperature in the north to temperature and precipitation in the south. Median fire size varies with elevation and temperature in the south. These results demonstrate that the spatial heterogeneity of predictors and scaling effects must be fully considered in the study of forest fire disturbance.Jiajia Su, Zhihua Liu, WenjuanWang, Kewei Jiao, Yue Yu, Kaili Li, Qiushuang Lü and Tamara L. Fletche

Cassini VIMS observations of H3+ emission on the nightside of Jupiter

We present the first detailed analysis of H3+ nightside emission from Jupiter, using Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) data from the Cassini flyby in 2000–2001, producing the first Jovian maps of nightside H3+ emission, temperature, and column density. Using these, we identify and characterize regions of H3+ nightside emission, compared against past observations of H3+ emission on the dayside. We focus our investigation on the region previously described as “mid-to-low latitude emission,” the source for which has been controversial. We find that the brightest of this emission is generated at Jovigraphic latitudes similar to the most equatorward extent of the main auroral emission but concentrated at longitudes eastward of this emission. The emission is produced by enhanced H3+ density, with temperatures dropping away in this region. This emission has a loose association with the predicted location of diffuse aurora produced by pitch angle scattering in the north, but not in the south. This emission also lays in the path of subrotating winds flowing from the aurora, suggesting a transport origin. Some differences are seen between dayside and nightside subauroral emissions, with dayside emission extending more equatorward, perhaps caused by the lack of sunlight ionization on the nightside, and unmeasured changes in temperature. Ionospheric temperatures are hotter in the polar region (~1100–1500 K), dropping away toward the equator (as low as 750 K), broadly similar to values on the dayside, highlighting the dominance of auroral effects in the polar region. No equatorial emission is observed, suggesting that very little particle precipitation occurs away from the polar regions

Characterising splicing defects of ABCA4 variants within exons 13–50 in patient-derived fibroblasts

The ATP-binding cassette subfamily A member 4 gene (ABCA4)-associated retinopathy, Stargardt disease, is the most common monogenic inherited retinal disease. Given the pathogenicity of numerous ABCA4 variants is yet to be examined and a significant proportion (more than 15%) of ABCA4 variants are categorized as splice variants in silico, we therefore established a fibroblast-based splice assay to analyze ABCA4 variants in an Australian Stargardt disease cohort and characterize the pathogenic mechanisms of ABCA4 variants. A cohort of 67 patients clinically diagnosed with Stargardt disease was recruited. Genomic DNA was analysed using a commercial panel for ABCA4 variant detection and the consequences of ABCA4 variants were predicted in silico. Dermal fibroblasts were propagated from skin biopsies, total RNA was extracted and the ABCA4 transcript was amplified by RT-PCR. Our analysis identified a total of 67 unique alleles carrying 74 unique variants. The most prevalent splice-affecting complex allele c.[5461-10T > C; 5603A > T] was carried by 10% of patients in a compound heterozygous state. ABCA4 transcripts from exon 13 to exon 50 were readily detected in fibroblasts. In this region, aberrant splicing was evident in 10 out of 57 variant transcripts (18%), carried by 19 patients (28%). Patient-derived fibroblasts provide a feasible platform for identification of ABCA4 splice variants located within exons 13–50. Experimental evidence of aberrant splicing contributes to the pathogenic classification for ABCA4 variants. Moreover, identification of variants that affect splicing processes provides opportunities for intervention, in particular antisense oligonucleotide-mediated splice correction

Determinants of disease penetrance in PRPF31-associated retinopathy

Retinitis pigmentosa 11 (RP11) is caused by dominant mutations in PRPF31, however a significant proportion of mutation carriers do not develop retinopathy. Here, we investigated the relationship between CNOT3 polymorphism, MSR1 repeat copy number and disease penetrance in RP11 patients and non-penetrant carriers (NPCs). We further characterized PRPF31 and CNOT3 expression in fibroblasts from eight RP11 patients and one NPC from a family carrying the c.1205C>T variant. Retinal organoids (ROs) and retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) were differentiated from induced pluripotent stem cells derived from RP11 patients, an NPC and a control subject. All RP11 patients were homozygous for the 3-copy MSR1 repeat in the PRPF31 promoter, while 3/5 NPCs carried a 4-copy MSR1 repeat. The CNOT3 rs4806718 genotype did not correlate with disease penetrance. PRFP31 expression declined with age in adult cadaveric retina. PRPF31 and CNOT3 expression was reduced in RP11 fibroblasts, RO and RPE compared with controls. Both RP11 and NPC RPE displayed shortened primary cilia compared with controls, however a subpopulation of cells with normal cilia lengths was present in NPC RPE monolayers. Our results indicate that RP11 non-penetrance is associated with the inheritance of a 4-copy MSR1 repeat, but not with CNOT3 polymorphisms

Evidence for fire in the pliocene arctic in response to amplified temperature

The mid-Pliocene is a valuable time interval for investigating equilibrium climate at current atmospheric CO2 concentrations because atmospheric CO2 concentrations are thought to have been compara

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science plan and experimental design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments (Eoi400, E280) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations

Science requirement document (SRD) for the European Solar Telescope (EST) (2nd edition, December 2019)

The European Solar Telescope (EST) is a research infrastructure for solar physics. It is planned to be an on-axis solar telescope with an aperture of 4 m and equipped with an innovative suite of spectro-polarimetric and imaging post-focus instrumentation. The EST project was initiated and is driven by EAST, the European Association for Solar Telescopes. EAST was founded in 2006 as an association of 14 European countries. Today, as of December 2019, EAST consists of 26 European research institutes from 18 European countries. The Preliminary Design Phase of EST was accomplished between 2008 and 2011. During this phase, in 2010, the first version of the EST Science Requirement Document (SRD) was published. After EST became a project on the ESFRI roadmap 2016, the preparatory phase started. The goal of the preparatory phase is to accomplish a final design for the telescope and the legal governance structure of EST. A major milestone on this path is to revisit and update the Science Requirement Document (SRD). The EST Science Advisory Group (SAG) has been constituted by EAST and the Board of the PRE-EST EU project in November 2017 and has been charged with the task of providing with a final statement on the science requirements for EST. Based on the conceptual design, the SRD update takes into account recent technical and scientific developments, to ensure that EST provides significant advancement beyond the current state-of-the-art. The present update of the EST SRD has been developed and discussed during a series of EST SAG meetings. The SRD develops the top-level science objectives of EST into individual science cases. Identifying critical science requirements is one of its main goals. Those requirements will define the capabilities of EST and the post-focus instrument suite. The technical requirements for the final design of EST will be derived from the SRD