Towards improved socio-economic assessments of ocean acidification’s impacts

Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a component of global change that could have a wide range of impacts on marine organisms, the ecosystems they live in, and the goods and services they provide humankind. Assessment of these potential socio-economic impacts requires integrated efforts between biologists, chemists, oceanographers, economists and social scientists. But because ocean acidification is a new research area, significant knowledge gaps are preventing economists from estimating its welfare impacts. For instance, economic data on the impact of ocean acidification on significant markets such as fisheries, aquaculture and tourism are very limited (if not non-existent), and non-market valuation studies on this topic are not yet available. Our paper summarizes the current understanding of future OA impacts and sets out what further information is required for economists to assess socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification. Our aim is to provide clear directions for multidisciplinary collaborative research

Derivation and External Validation of a Prediction Rule for Five-Year Mortality in Patients With Early Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis

OBJECTIVE: Although diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) is associated with a reduction in life expectancy, there are no validated prognostic models for determining 5-year mortality in patients with dcSSc. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a rule for predicting 5-year mortality in patients with early dcSSc. METHODS: We studied an inception cohort of 388 US Caucasian patients with early dcSSc (<2 years from the appearance of the first symptom). Predefined baseline variables were analyzed in a stepwise logistic regression model in order to identify factors independently associated with 5-year all-cause mortality. We rounded the beta weights to the nearest integer and summed the points assigned to each variable in order to stratify patients into low-risk (<0 points), moderate-risk (1-2 points), and high-risk (≥3 points) groups. We then applied this rule to an external validation cohort of 144 Caucasian patients with early dcSSc from the Royal Free Hospital cohort and compared stratum-specific 5-year mortality. RESULTS: Six independent predictors (rounded beta weight) comprised the model: age at first visit (points allotted: -1, 0, or 1), male sex (points allotted: 0 or 1), tendon friction rubs (points allotted: 0 or 1), gastrointestinal involvement (points allotted: 0 or 1), RNA polymerase III antibodies (points allotted: 0 or 1), and anemia (points allotted: 0 or 1). The 3-level risk stratification model performed well, with no significant differences between the US derivation cohort and the UK validation cohort. CONCLUSION: We derived and externally validated, in US and UK cohorts, an easy-to-use 6-variable prediction rule that assigns low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk categories for 5-year mortality in patients with early dcSSc. Only history, physical examination, and basic laboratory assessments are required

Estimating the Extent of Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus Infection

BACKGROUND: Eight outbreaks of paralytic polio attributable to circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) have highlighted the risks associated with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use in areas of low vaccination coverage and poor hygiene. As the Polio Eradication Initiative enters its final stages, it is important to consider the extent to which these viruses spread under different conditions, so that appropriate strategies can be devised to prevent or respond to future cVDPV outbreaks. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This paper examines epidemiological (temporal, geographic, age, vaccine history, social group, ascertainment), and virological (type, genetic diversity, virulence) parameters in order to infer the numbers of individuals likely to have been infected in each of these cVDPV outbreaks, and in association with single acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases attributable to VDPVs. Although only 114 virologically-confirmed paralytic cases were identified in the eight cVDPV outbreaks, it is likely that a minimum of hundreds of thousands, and more likely several million individuals were infected during these events, and that many thousands more have been infected by VDPV lineages within outbreaks which have escaped detection. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates of the extent of cVDPV circulation suggest widespread transmission in some countries, as might be expected from endemic wild poliovirus transmission in these same settings. These methods for inferring extent of infection will be useful in the context of identifying future surveillance needs, planning for OPV cessation and preparing outbreak response plans

Predicting residents' performance: A prospective study

BACKGROUND: Objective criteria for predicting residents' performance do not exist. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that global assessment by an intern selection committee (ISC) would correlate with the future performance of residents. METHODS: A prospective study of 277 residents between 1992 and 1999. Global assessment at the time of interview was compared to subsequent clinical (assessed by chief residents) and cognitive performance (assessed by the American Board of Pediatrics in-service training examination). RESULTS: ISC ratings correlated significantly with clinical performance at 24 and 36 months of training (r = 0.58, P < .001; and r = 0.60, P < .001 respectively). ISC ratings also correlated significantly with in-service exam scores in the 1(st), 2(nd), and 3(rd) years of training (r = 0.35, P = .0016; r = 0.39, P = 0.0003; r = 0.50, P = 0.005 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Global assessment by an ISC predicted residents' clinical and cognitive performances

Quantitative trait analysis of the development of pulmonary tolerance to inhaled zinc oxide in mice

BACKGROUND: Individuals may develop tolerance to the induction of adverse pulmonary effects following repeated exposures to inhaled toxicants. Previously, we demonstrated that genetic background plays an important role in the development of pulmonary tolerance to inhaled zinc oxide (ZnO) in inbred mouse strains, as assessed by polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMNs), macrophages, and total protein in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) phenotypes. The BALB/cByJ (CBy) and DBA/2J (D2) strains were identified as tolerant and non-tolerant, respectively. The present study was designed to identify candidate genes that control the development of pulmonary tolerance to inhaled ZnO. METHODS: Genome-wide linkage analyses were performed on a CByD2F2 mouse cohort phenotyped for BAL protein, PMNs, and macrophages following 5 consecutive days of exposure to 1.0 mg/m(3 )inhaled ZnO for 3 hours/day. A haplotype analysis was carried out to determine the contribution of each quantitative trait locus (QTL) and QTL combination to the overall BAL protein phenotype. Candidate genes were identified within each QTL interval using the positional candidate gene approach. RESULTS: A significant quantitative trait locus (QTL) on chromosome 1, as well as suggestive QTLs on chromosomes 4 and 5, for the BAL protein phenotype, was established. Suggestive QTLs for the BAL PMN and macrophage phenotypes were also identified on chromosomes 1 and 5, respectively. Analysis of specific haplotypes supports the combined effect of three QTLs in the overall protein phenotype. Toll-like receptor 5 (Tlr5) was identified as an interesting candidate gene within the significant QTL for BAL protein on chromosome 1. Wild-derived Tlr5-mutant MOLF/Ei mice were tolerant to BAL protein following repeated ZnO exposure. CONCLUSION: Genetic background is an important influence in the acquisition of pulmonary tolerance to BAL protein, PMNs, and macrophages following ZnO exposure. Promising candidate genes exist within the identified QTL intervals that would be good targets for additional studies, including Tlr5. The implications of tolerance to health risks in humans are numerous, and this study furthers the understanding of gene-environment interactions that are likely to be important factors from person-to-person in regulating the development of pulmonary tolerance to inhaled toxicants

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and energy efficiency in weight loss diets

Carbohydrate restriction as a strategy for control of obesity is based on two effects: a behavioral effect, spontaneous reduction in caloric intake and a metabolic effect, an apparent reduction in energy efficiency, greater weight loss per calorie consumed. Variable energy efficiency is established in many contexts (hormonal imbalance, weight regain and knock-out experiments in animal models), but in the area of the effect of macronutrient composition on weight loss, controversy remains. Resistance to the idea comes from a perception that variable weight loss on isocaloric diets would somehow violate the laws of thermodynamics, that is, only caloric intake is important ("a calorie is a calorie"). Previous explanations of how the phenomenon occurs, based on equilibrium thermodynamics, emphasized the inefficiencies introduced by substrate cycling and requirements for increased gluconeogenesis. Living systems, however, are maintained far from equilibrium, and metabolism is controlled by the regulation of the rates of enzymatic reactions. The principles of nonequilibrium thermodynamics which emphasize kinetic fluxes as well as thermodynamic forces should therefore also be considered