Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Effects of ocean acidification on invertebrate settlement at volcanic CO<inf>2</inf> vents

We present the first study of the effects of ocean acidification on settlement of benthic invertebrates and microfauna. Artificial collectors were placed for 1 month along pH gradients at CO2 vents off Ischia (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy). Seventy-nine taxa were identified from six main taxonomic groups (foraminiferans, nematodes, polychaetes, molluscs, crustaceans and chaetognaths). Calcareous foraminiferans, serpulid polychaetes, gastropods and bivalves showed highly significant reductions in recruitment to the collectors as pCO2 rose from normal (336-341 ppm, pH 8.09-8.15) to high levels (886-5,148 ppm) causing acidified conditions near the vents (pH 7.08-7.79). Only the syllid polychaete Syllis prolifera had higher abundances at the most acidified station, although a wide range of polychaetes and small crustaceans was able to settle and survive under these conditions. A few taxa (Amphiglena mediterranea, Leptochelia dubia, Caprella acanthifera) were particularly abundant at stations acidified by intermediate amounts of CO2 (pH 7. 41-7.99). These results show that increased levels of CO2 can profoundly affect the settlement of a wide range of benthic organisms. © 2010 Springer-Verlag

A Novel Intravital Method to Evaluate Cerebral Vasospasm in Rat Models of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Study with Synchrotron Radiation Angiography

Precise in vivo evaluation of cerebral vasospasm caused by subarachnoid hemorrhage has remained a critical but unsolved issue in experimental small animal models. In this study, we used synchrotron radiation angiography to study the vasospasm of anterior circulation arteries in two subarachnoid hemorrhage models in rats. Synchrotron radiation angiography, laser Doppler flowmetry-cerebral blood flow measurement, [125I]N-isopropyl-p-iodoamphetamine cerebral blood flow measurement and terminal examinations were applied to evaluate the changes of anterior circulation arteries in two subarachnoid hemorrhage models made by blood injection into cisterna magna and prechiasmatic cistern. Using synchrotron radiation angiography technique, we detected cerebral vasospasm in subarachnoid hemorrhage rats compared to the controls (p<0.05). We also identified two interesting findings: 1) both middle cerebral artery and anterior cerebral artery shrunk the most at day 3 after subarachnoid hemorrhage; 2) the diameter of anterior cerebral artery in the prechiasmatic cistern injection group was smaller than that in the cisterna magna injection group (p<0.05), but not for middle cerebral artery. We concluded that synchrotron radiation angiography provided a novel technique, which could directly evaluate cerebral vasospasm in small animal experimental subarachnoid hemorrhage models. The courses of vasospasm in these two injection models are similar; however, the model produced by prechiasmatic cistern injection is more suitable for study of anterior circulation vasospasm

Reoperations after first lumbar disc herniation surgery; a special interest on residives during a 5-year follow-up

BACKGROUND: The overall rate of operations after recurrent lumbar disc herniation has been shown to be 3–11%. However, little is known about the rate of residives. Thus the aim of this study was to explore the cumulative rates of re-operations and especially residive disc herniations at the same side and level as the primary disc herniation after first lumbar disc herniation surgery and the factors that influence the risk of re-operations over a five year follow-up study. METHODS: 166 virgin lumbar disc herniation patients (mean age 42 years, 57% males) were studied. Data on patients' initial disc operations and type and timing of re-operations during the follow-up were collected from patient files. Back and leg pain on visual analog scale and employment status were collected by questionnaires. RESULTS: The cumulative rate of re-operations for lumbar disc herniation was 10.2% (95% Cl 6.0 to 15.1). The rate of residives at initial site was 7.4% (95% Cl 3.7 to 11.3) and rate of lumbar disc herniations at other sites was 3.1% (95% Cl 0.6 to 6.2). The occurrence of residive lumbar disc herniations was evenly distributed across the 5 years. Neither age, gender, preoperative symptoms, physical activity nor employment had effect on the probability of re-operation. CONCLUSION: Seven percent of the lumbar disc patients had a residive lumbar disc operation within five years of their first operation. No specific factors influencing the risk for re-operation were found

Inhibition of cerebrovascular raf activation attenuates cerebral blood flow and prevents upregulation of contractile receptors after subarachnoid hemorrhage

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Late cerebral ischemia carries high morbidity and mortality after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) due to reduced cerebral blood flow (CBF) and the subsequent cerebral ischemia which is associated with upregulation of contractile receptors in the vascular smooth muscle cells (SMC) via activation of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK)1/2 signal pathway. We hypothesize that SAH initiates cerebrovascular ERK1/2 activation, resulting in receptor upregulation. The raf inhibitor will inhibit the molecular events upstream ERK1/2 and may provide a therapeutic window for treatment of cerebral ischemia after SAH.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here we demonstrate that SAH increases the phosphorylation level of ERK1/2 in cerebral vessels and reduces the neurology score in rats in additional with the CBF measured by an autoradiographic method. The intracisternal administration of SB-386023-b, a specific inhibitor of raf, given 6 h after SAH, aborts the receptor changes and protects the brain from the development of late cerebral ischemia at 48 h. This is accompanied by reduced phosphorylation of ERK1/2 in cerebrovascular SMC. SAH per se enhances contractile responses to endothelin-1 (ET-1), 5-carboxamidotryptamine (5-CT) and angiotensin II (Ang II), upregulates ET_B, 5-HT_1Band AT₁receptor mRNA and protein levels. Treatment with SB-386023-b given as late as at 6 h but not at 12 h after the SAH significantly decreased the receptor upregulation, the reduction in CBF and the neurology score.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results provide evidence for a role of the ERK1/2 pathway in regulation of expression of cerebrovascular SMC receptors. It is suggested that raf inhibition may reduce late cerebral ischemia after SAH and provides a realistic time window for therapy.</p

The immediate and long-term effects of exercise and patient education on physical, functional, and quality-of-life outcome measures after single-level lumbar microdiscectomy: a randomized controlled trial protocol

BACKGROUND: Low back pain remains a costly quality-of-life-related health problem. Microdiscectomy is often the surgical procedure of choice for a symptomatic, single-level, lumbar disc herniation in younger and middle-aged adults. The question of whether a post-microdiscectomy exercise program enhances function, quality of life, and disability status has not been systematically explored. Thus, the overall purpose of this study is to assess immediate and long-term outcomes of an exercise program, developed at University of Southern California (USC), targeting the trunk and lower extremities (USC Spine Exercise Program) for persons who have undergone a single-level microdiscectomy for the first time. METHODS/DESIGN: One hundred individuals between the ages of 18 and 60 who consent to undergo lumbar microdiscectomy will be recruited to participate in this study. Subjects will be randomly assigned to one of two groups: 1) one session of back care education, or 2) a back care education session followed by the 12-week USC Spine Exercise Program. The outcome examiners (evaluators), as well as the data managers, will be blinded to group allocation. Education will consist of a one-hour "one-on-one" session with the intervention therapist, guided by an educational booklet specifically designed for post-microdiscectomy care. This session will occur four to six weeks after surgery. The USC Spine Exercise Program consists of two parts: back extensor strength and endurance, and mat and upright therapeutic exercises. This exercise program is goal-oriented, performance-based, and periodized. It will begin two to three days after the education session, and will occur three times a week for 12 weeks. Primary outcome measures include the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire, Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire, SF-36(® )quality of life assessment, Subjective Quality of Life Scale, 50-foot Walk, Repeated Sit-to-Stand, and a modified Sorensen test. The outcome measures in the study will be assessed before and after the 12-week post-surgical intervention program. Long-term follow up assessments will occur every six months beginning one year after surgery and ending five years after surgery. Immediate and long-term effects will be assessed using repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). If significant interactions are found, one-way ANOVAs will be performed followed by post-hoc testing to determine statistically significant pairwise comparisons. DISCUSSION: We have presented the rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of a treatment regimen for people who have undergone a single-level lumbar microdiscectomy

Biocontrol Potential of Forest Tree Endophytes

Peer reviewe

Theories of schizophrenia: a genetic-inflammatory-vascular synthesis

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia, a relatively common psychiatric syndrome, affects virtually all brain functions yet has eluded explanation for more than 100 years. Whether by developmental and/or degenerative processes, abnormalities of neurons and their synaptic connections have been the recent focus of attention. However, our inability to fathom the pathophysiology of schizophrenia forces us to challenge our theoretical models and beliefs. A search for a more satisfying model to explain aspects of schizophrenia uncovers clues pointing to genetically mediated CNS microvascular inflammatory disease. DISCUSSION: A vascular component to a theory of schizophrenia posits that the physiologic abnormalities leading to illness involve disruption of the exquisitely precise regulation of the delivery of energy and oxygen required for normal brain function. The theory further proposes that abnormalities of CNS metabolism arise because genetically modulated inflammatory reactions damage the microvascular system of the brain in reaction to environmental agents, including infections, hypoxia, and physical trauma. Damage may accumulate with repeated exposure to triggering agents resulting in exacerbation and deterioration, or healing with their removal. There are clear examples of genetic polymorphisms in inflammatory regulators leading to exaggerated inflammatory responses. There is also ample evidence that inflammatory vascular disease of the brain can lead to psychosis, often waxing and waning, and exhibiting a fluctuating course, as seen in schizophrenia. Disturbances of CNS blood flow have repeatedly been observed in people with schizophrenia using old and new technologies. To account for the myriad of behavioral and other curious findings in schizophrenia such as minor physical anomalies, or reported decreased rates of rheumatoid arthritis and highly visible nail fold capillaries, we would have to evoke a process that is systemic such as the vascular and immune/inflammatory systems. SUMMARY: A vascular-inflammatory theory of schizophrenia brings together environmental and genetic factors in a way that can explain the diversity of symptoms and outcomes observed. If these ideas are confirmed, they would lead in new directions for treatments or preventions by avoiding inducers of inflammation or by way of inflammatory modulating agents, thus preventing exaggerated inflammation and consequent triggering of a psychotic episode in genetically predisposed persons