Foreign languages and trade: Evidence from a natural experiment

Cultural factors and common languages are well-known determinants of trade. By contrast, the knowledge of foreign languages was not explored in the literature so far. We combine traditional gravity models with data on fluency in the main languages used in EU and candidate countries. We show that widespread knowledge of languages is an important determinant for foreign trade, with English playing an especially important role. The robustness of our results is confirmed by quantile regressions

Foreign languages and trade

Cultural factors and especially common languages are well-known determinants of trade. By contrast, the knowledge of foreign languages was not explored in the literature so far. We combine traditional gravity models with data on fluency in the main languages used in EU and candidate countries. We show that widespread knowledge of languages is an important determinant for foreign trade, with English playing an especially important role. Other languages (French, German, and Russian) play an important role mainly in particular regions. Furthermore, we document non-linear effects of foreign languages on trade. The robustness of the results is confirmed in quantile regressions

Whither China? Reform and economic integration among Chinese regions

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.This paper investigates the changing nature of economic integration in China. Specifically, we consider business-cycle synchronization (correlation of demand and supply shocks) among Chinese provinces during the period 1955-2007. We nd that the symmetry of supply shocks has declined after the liberalization initiated in 1978. In contrast, the correlation of demand shocks has increased during the same period. We then seek to explain these correlations by relating them to factors that proxy for interprovincial trade and vulnerability of regions to idiosyncratic shocks. Interprovincial trade and similarity in factor endowments tend to make shocks more symmetric. Surprisingly, foreign trade and inward FDI have little effect on the symmetry of shocks

Political Support for Reforms: Economics of Voting in Transition Countries

I analyze the relationship between economics and politics across eight parliamentary elections in four transition countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. I argue that support for reform reflects the balance between positive and negative effects of the reform. Accordingly, I identify economic groups that support or oppose the reform. The former are private entrepreneurs, white collar workers and university educated voters. The latter are the unemployed, retirees, and blue collar and agricultural workers. This general pattern holds both within countries and across countries, and across tenures of different governments. In contrast with the responsibility hypothesis, voters in the transition countries are found to be forward looking, not retrospective.Transition;economics of voting;Central and Eastern Europe

Political Sustainability of Economic reforms: Dynamics and Analysis of Regional Economic Factors

This paper analyzes the political economy of the reform process theoretically and empirically.Building on the framework developed by Rodrik [1995], a two-sector model of a transition economy is constructed.This model is then used to study the dynamics of political support for the reforms.The key role is played by the pattern of flows between the state and private sectors and unemployment.It is shown that while the workers in the private sector always support rapid reforms, the workers in the state sector and the unemployed will support rapid reforms only at the outset of the transition.Later, state-sector workers and unemployed will vote for a reduction in the speed of reforms.The relationship between unemployment and support for the reforms is then tested empirically using regional data from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.economic reform;regional economics;Central Europe;Eastern Europe

Impact of IMF assistance on economic growth revisited

All rights reserved. We investigate the effect of IMF assistance on economic growth in a broad panel of countries. We argue that countries are likely self-select into seeking IMF involvement based on their economic performance. We control for such endogeneity by means of instrumental variables. Our findings indicate that the contemporaneous effect of the IMF involvement is insignificant while the lagged effect is positive. The 2SLS effect is larger than the OLS one, indicating that the latter is downward biased

Friday the 13th: The Empirics of Bad Luck

We use the UK Labor Force survey to investigate whether the socio-economic outcomes of people born on the 13th day of the month, and of those born on Friday the 13th, differ from the outcomes of people born on more auspicious days. In many European countries, including the UK, number 13 is considered unlucky and Friday the 13th is seen as an especially unlucky day. We find little evidence that people born on the 13th or those born on Friday the 13th are significantly less likely to be employed, earn lower wages or that they are more likely to stay unmarried compared to people born on other days

How I learned to stop worrying and love the crisis

In this paper we investigate the effects of economic crises on the subsequent economic performance, economic liberalization and institutional change. Our analysis is based on a sample of post-communist countries, most of which experienced severe economic crises in the early 1990s. We find that the severity of the crisis has a positive impact on the subsequent pace of economic reform and economic growth. The effect on institution change is more complicated: the crisis appears to cause an initial worsening of institutions followed by a subsequent improvement later on

Integration, Disintegration and Trade in Europe:Evolution of Trade Relations during the 1990s

The gravity model of trade is used to assess the economic consequences of new borders, which arose in the wake of break-ups of multinational federations in Eastern Europe. The intensity of trade relations among the constituent parts of Czechoslovakia, Soviet Union and the Baltics was very high around the time of disintegration, exceeding the normal level of trade approximately 40 times. Disintegration has been followed by a sharp fall in trade intensity. On the other hand, the trade liberalization between East and West has lead to gradual normalization of trade relations, and liberalization within CEFTA has reversed the fall in trade intensity among Central European countries