Lack of Detectable HIV-1–Specific CD8+ T Cell Responses in Zambian HIV-1–Exposed Seronegative Partners of HIV-1–Positive Individuals

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)–specific T cell responses were characterized in a blinded study involving infected individuals and their seronegative exposed uninfected (EU) partners from Lusaka, Zambia. HIV-1–specific T cell responses were detected ex vivo in all infected individuals and amplified, on average, 27-fold following in vitro expansion. In contrast, no HIV-1–specific T cell responses were detected in any of the EU partners ex vivo or following in vitro expansion. These data demonstrate that the detection of HIV-1–specific T cell immunity in EU individuals is not universal and that alternative mechanisms may account for protection in these individuals

Estimating the Impact of Plasma HIV-1 RNA Reductions on Heterosexual HIV-1 Transmission Risk

Background: The risk of sexual transmission of HIV-1 is strongly associated with the level of HIV-1 RNA in plasma making reduction in HIV-1 plasma levels an important target for HIV-1 prevention interventions. A quantitative understanding of the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA and HIV-1 transmission risk could help predict the impact of candidate HIV-1 prevention interventions that operate by reducing plasma HIV-1 levels, such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), therapeutic vaccines, and other non-ART interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We use prospective data collected from 2004 to 2008 in East and Southern African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples to model the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA levels and heterosexual transmission risk with confirmation of HIV-1 transmission events by HIV-1 sequencing. The model is based on follow-up of 3381 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples over 5017 person-years encompassing 108 genetically-linked HIV-1 transmission events. HIV-1 transmission risk was 2.27 per 100 person-years with a log-linear relationship to log10 plasma HIV-1 RNA. The model predicts that a decrease in average plasma HIV-1 RNA of 0.74 log10 copies/mL (95% CI 0.60 to 0.97) reduces heterosexual transmission risk by 50%, regardless of the average starting plasma HIV-1 level in the population and independent of other HIV-1-related population characteristics. In a simulated population with a similar plasma HIV-1 RNA distribution the model estimates that 90% of overall HIV-1 infections averted by a 0.74 copies/mL reduction in plasma HIV-1 RNA could be achieved by targeting this reduction to the 58% of the cohort with plasma HIV-1 levels ≥4 log10 copies/mL. Conclusions/Significance: This log-linear model of plasma HIV-1 levels and risk of sexual HIV-1 transmission may help estimate the impact on HIV-1 transmission and infections averted from candidate interventions that reduce plasma HIV-1 RNA levels

Inflammatory Genital Infections Mitigate a Severe Genetic Bottleneck in Heterosexual Transmission of Subtype A and C HIV-1

The HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa is driven largely by heterosexual transmission of non-subtype B viruses, of which subtypes C and A are predominant. Previous studies of subtype B and subtype C transmission pairs have suggested that a single variant from the chronically infected partner can establish infection in their newly infected partner. However, in subtype A infected individuals from a sex worker cohort and subtype B individuals from STD clinics, infection was frequently established by multiple variants. This study examined over 1750 single-genome amplified viral sequences derived from epidemiologically linked subtype C and subtype A transmission pairs very early after infection. In 90% (18/20) of the pairs, HIV-1 infection is initiated by a single viral variant that is derived from the quasispecies of the transmitting partner. In addition, the virus initiating infection in individuals who were infected by someone other than their spouse was characterized to determine if genital infections mitigated the severe genetic bottleneck observed in a majority of epidemiologically linked heterosexual HIV-1 transmission events. In nearly 50% (3/7) of individuals infected by someone other than their spouse, multiple genetic variants from a single individual established infection. A statistically significant association was observed between infection by multiple genetic variants and an inflammatory genital infection in the newly infected individual. Thus, in the vast majority of HIV-1 transmission events in cohabiting heterosexual couples, a single genetic variant establishes infection. Nevertheless, this severe genetic bottleneck can be mitigated by the presence of inflammatory genital infections in the at risk partner, suggesting that this restriction on genetic diversity is imposed in large part by the mucosal barrier

Transmission Selects for HIV-1 Strains of Intermediate Virulence: A Modelling Approach

Recent data shows that HIV-1 is characterised by variation in viral virulence factors that is heritable between infections, which suggests that viral virulence can be naturally selected at the population level. A trade-off between transmissibility and duration of infection appears to favour viruses of intermediate virulence. We developed a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of putative viral genotypes that differ in their virulence. As a proxy for virulence, we use set-point viral load (SPVL), which is the steady density of viral particles in blood during asymptomatic infection. Mutation, the dependency of survival and transmissibility on SPVL, and host effects were incorporated into the model. The model was fitted to data to estimate unknown parameters, and was found to fit existing data well. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters produced a model in which SPVL converged from any initial conditions to observed values within 100–150 years of first emergence of HIV-1. We estimated the 1) host effect and 2) the extent to which the viral virulence genotype mutates from one infection to the next, and found a trade-off between these two parameters in explaining the variation in SPVL. The model confirms that evolution of virulence towards intermediate levels is sufficiently rapid for it to have happened in the early stages of the HIV epidemic, and confirms that existing viral loads are nearly optimal given the assumed constraints on evolution. The model provides a useful framework under which to examine the future evolution of HIV-1 virulence

Modelling the Spread of HIV Immune Escape Mutants in a Vaccinated Population

Because cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) have been shown to play a role in controlling human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and because CTL-based simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) vaccines have proved effective in non-human primates, one goal of HIV vaccine design is to elicit effective CTL responses in humans. Such a vaccine could improve viral control in patients who later become infected, thereby reducing onwards transmission and enhancing life expectancy in the absence of treatment. The ability of HIV to evolve mutations that evade CTLs and the ability of these ‘escape mutants’ to spread amongst the population poses a challenge to the development of an effective and robust vaccine. We present a mathematical model of within-host evolution and between-host transmission of CTL escape mutants amongst a population receiving a vaccine that elicits CTL responses to multiple epitopes. Within-host evolution at each epitope is represented by the outgrowth of escape mutants in hosts who restrict the epitope and their reversion in hosts who do not restrict the epitope. We use this model to investigate how the evolution and spread of escape mutants could affect the impact of a vaccine. We show that in the absence of escape, such a vaccine could markedly reduce the prevalence of both infection and disease in the population. However the impact of such a vaccine could be significantly abated by CTL escape mutants, especially if their selection in hosts who restrict the epitope is rapid and their reversion in hosts who do not restrict the epitope is slow. We also use the model to address whether a vaccine should span a broad or narrow range of CTL epitopes and target epitopes restricted by rare or common HLA types. We discuss the implications and limitations of our findings

Fitting the HIV Epidemic in Zambia: A Two-Sex Micro-Simulation Model

BACKGROUND: In describing and understanding how the HIV epidemic spreads in African countries, previous studies have not taken into account the detailed periods at risk. This study is based on a micro-simulation model (individual-based) of the spread of the HIV epidemic in the population of Zambia, where women tend to marry early and where divorces are not frequent. The main target of the model was to fit the HIV seroprevalence profiles by age and sex observed at the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2001. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A two-sex micro-simulation model of HIV transmission was developed. Particular attention was paid to precise age-specific estimates of exposure to risk through the modelling of the formation and dissolution of relationships: marriage (stable union), casual partnership, and commercial sex. HIV transmission was exclusively heterosexual for adults or vertical (mother-to-child) for children. Three stages of HIV infection were taken into account. All parameters were derived from empirical population-based data. Results show that basic parameters could not explain the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Zambia. In order to fit the age and sex patterns, several assumptions were made: differential susceptibility of young women to HIV infection, differential susceptibility or larger number of encounters for male clients of commercial sex workers, and higher transmission rate. The model allowed to quantify the role of each type of relationship in HIV transmission, the proportion of infections occurring at each stage of disease progression, and the net reproduction rate of the epidemic (R(0) = 1.95). CONCLUSIONS: The simulation model reproduced the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Zambia, and fitted the age and sex pattern of HIV seroprevalence in 2001. The same model could be used to measure the effect of changing behaviour in the future

Optimal Uses of Antiretrovirals for Prevention in HIV-1 Serodiscordant Heterosexual Couples in South Africa: A Modelling Study

Hallett et al use a mathematical model to examine the long-term impact and cost-effectiveness of different pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) strategies for HIV prevention in serodiscordant couples

Characteristics of HIV-1 Discordant Couples Enrolled in a Trial of HSV-2 Suppression to Reduce HIV-1 Transmission: The Partners Study

Background: The Partners HSV-2/HIV-1 Transmission Study (Partners Study) is a phase III, placebo-controlled trial of daily acyclovir for genital herpes (HSV-2) suppression among HIV-1/HSV-2 co-infected persons to reduce HIV-1 transmission to their HIV-1 susceptible partners, which requires recruitment of HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual couples. We describe the baseline characteristics of this cohort. Methods: HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual couples, in which the HIV-1 infected partner was HSV-2 seropositive, had a CD4 count ≥250 cells/mcL and was not on antiretroviral therapy, were enrolled at 14 sites in East and Southern Africa. Demographic, behavioral, clinical and laboratory characteristics were assessed. Results: Of the 3408 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples enrolled, 67% of the HIV-1 infected partners were women. Couples had cohabitated for a median of 5 years (range 2–9) with 28% reporting unprotected sex in the month prior to enrollment. Among HIV-1 susceptible participants, 86% of women and 59% of men were HSV-2 seropositive. Other laboratory-diagnosed sexually transmitted infections were uncommon (500 relative to <350, respectively, p<0.001). Conclusions: The Partners Study successfully enrolled a cohort of 3408 heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Africa at high risk for HIV-1 transmission. Follow-up of this cohort will evaluate the efficacy of acyclovir for HSV-2 suppression in preventing HIV-1 transmission and provide insights into biological and behavioral factors determining heterosexual HIV-1 transmission. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0019451

The Contribution of Viral Genotype to Plasma Viral Set-Point in HIV Infection

Disease progression in HIV-infected individuals varies greatly, and while the environmental and host factors influencing this variation have been widely investigated, the viral contribution to variation in set-point viral load, a predictor of disease progression, is less clear. Previous studies, using transmission-pairs and analysis of phylogenetic signal in small numbers of individuals, have produced a wide range of viral genetic effect estimates. Here we present a novel application of a population-scale method based in quantitative genetics to estimate the viral genetic effect on set-point viral load in the UK subtype B HIV-1 epidemic, based on a very large data set. Analyzing the initial viral load and associated pol sequence, both taken before anti-retroviral therapy, of 8,483 patients, we estimate the proportion of variance in viral load explained by viral genetic effects to be 5.7% (CI 2.8-8.6%). We also estimated the change in viral load over time due to selection on the virus and environmental effects to be a decline of 0.05 log10 copies/mL/year, in contrast to recent studies which suggested a reported small increase in viral load over the last 20 years might be due to evolutionary changes in the virus. Our results suggest that in the UK epidemic, subtype B has a small but significant viral genetic effect on viral load. By allowing the analysis of large sample sizes, we expect our approach to be applicable to the estimation of the genetic contribution to traits in many organisms