A continuum model of melt pond evolution on Arctic sea ice

[1] During the Northern Hemisphere summer, absorbed solar radiation melts snow and the upper surface of Arctic sea ice to generate meltwater that accumulates in ponds. The melt ponds reduce the albedo of the sea ice cover during the melting season, with a significant impact on the heat and mass budget of the sea ice and the upper ocean. We have developed a model, designed to be suitable for inclusion into a global circulation model (GCM), which simulates the formation and evolution of the melt pond cover. In order to be compatible with existing GCM sea ice models, our melt pond model builds upon the existing theory of the evolution of the sea ice thickness distribution. Since this theory does not describe the topography of the ice cover, which is crucial to determining the location, extent, and depth of individual ponds, we have needed to introduce some assumptions. We describe our model, present calculations and a sensitivity analysis, and discuss our results

A New Normal for the Sea Ice Index

The NSIDC Sea Ice Index is a popular data product that shows users how ice extent and concentration have changed since the beginning of the passive microwave satellite record in 1978. It shows time series of monthly ice extent anomalies rather than actual extent values, in order to emphasize the information the data are carrying. Along with the time series, an image of average extent for the previous month is shown as a white field, with a pink line showing the median extent for that month. These are updated monthly; corresponding daily products are updated daily

Combined extracellular matrix cross-linking activity of the peroxidase MLT-7 and the dual oxidase BLI-3 is critical for post-embryonic viability in <i>Caenorhabditis elegans</i>

The nematode cuticle is a protective collagenous extracellular matrix that is modified, cross-linked, and processed by a number of key enzymes. This Ecdysozoan-specific structure is synthesized repeatedly and allows growth and development in a linked degradative and biosynthetic process known as molting. A targeted RNA interference screen using a cuticle collagen marker has been employed to identify components of the cuticle biosynthetic pathway. We have characterized an essential peroxidase, MoLT-7 (MLT-7), that is responsible for proper cuticle molting and re-synthesis. MLT-7 is an active, inhibitable peroxidase that is expressed in the cuticle-synthesizing hypodermis coincident with each larval molt. mlt-7 mutants show a range of body morphology defects, most notably molt, dumpy, and early larval stage arrest phenotypes that can all be complemented with a wild type copy of mlt-7. The cuticles of these mutants lacks di-tyrosine cross-links, becomes permeable to dye and accessible to tyrosine iodination, and have aberrant collagen protein expression patterns. Overexpression of MLT-7 causes mutant phenotypes further supporting its proposed enzymatic role. In combination with BLI-3, an H2O2-generating NADPH dual oxidase, MLT-7 is essential for post-embryonic development. Disruption of mlt-7, and particularly bli-3, via RNA interference also causes dramatic changes to the in vivo cross-linking patterns of the cuticle collagens DPY-13 and COL-12. This points toward a functionally cooperative relationship for these two hypodermally expressed proteins that is essential for collagen cross-linking and proper extracellular matrix formation

Computing and Representing Sea Ice Trends: Toward a Community Consensus

Estimates of the recent decline in Arctic Ocean summer sea ice extent can vary due to differences in sea ice data sources, in the number of years used to compute the trend, and in the start and end years used in the trend computation. Compounding such differences, estimates of the relative decline in sea ice cover (given in percent change per decade) can further vary due to the choice of reference value (the initial point of the trend line, a climatological baseline, etc.). Further adding to the confusion, very often when relative trends are reported in research papers, the reference values used are not specified or made clear. This can lead to confusion when trend studies are cited in the press and public reports

The Relation among Phonological Processing, Oral and Silent Reading Fluency, and Reading Comprehension for Students with Dyslexia: A Longitudinal Investigation

The purpose of this study was to examine the relations among phonological skills, oral and silent reading fluency, and reading comprehension for a longitudinal sample of students who have been diagnosed with dyslexia. Only two studies to date have modeled the relation between oral and silent reading fluency and comprehension, of which only one addressed phonological processing. No studies to date have modeled these relations in students with dyslexia. Participants in this study were 104 students in grades 2-5 with dyslexia, who were administered oral and silent reading fluency and comprehension assessments and selected phonological processing measures at the beginning and end of the school year. A cross-lagged path analysis was used to examine the relations among the phonological processing and text-level reading skills. A developmental model was also examined, but the inclusion of age as a covariate resulted in poor fit. Among the phonological skills included in the model, RAN showed the most robust and consistent relations to text-level reading skills across both modalities. In terms of reading fluency, oral accuracy made the strongest contribution to comprehension across both modalities. Ultimately, the results followed a pattern of progression from lower to higher reading skills, and indicated that oral reading supports silent skills

Skillful spring forecasts of September Arctic sea ice extent using passive microwave sea ice observations

In this study, we demonstrate skillful spring forecasts of detrended September Arctic sea ice extent using passive microwave observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and melt onset (MO). We compare these to forecasts produced using data from a sophisticated melt pond model, and find similar to higher skill values, where the forecast skill is calculated relative to linear trend persistence. The MO forecasts shows the highest skill in March–May, while the SIC forecasts produce the highest skill in June–August, especially when the forecasts are evaluated over recent years (since 2008). The high MO forecast skill in early spring appears to be driven primarily by the presence and timing of open water anomalies, while the high SIC forecast skill appears to be driven by both open water and surface melt processes. Spatial maps of detrended anomalies highlight the drivers of the different forecasts, and enable us to understand regions of predictive importance. Correctly capturing sea ice state anomalies, along with changes in open water coverage appear to be key processes in skillfully forecasting summer Arctic sea ice

Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016

During austral spring 2016 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) decreased at a record rate of 75 x 10(3) km(2) d(-1), which was 46% faster than the mean rate and 18% faster than in any previous spring season during the satellite era. The decrease of sea ice area was also exceptional and 28% greater than the mean. Anomalous negative retreat occurred in all sectors of the Antarctic but was greatest in the Weddell and Ross Seas. Record negative SIE anomalies for the day of year were recorded from 3 November 2016 to 9 April 2017. Rapid ice retreat in the Weddell Sea took place in strong northerly flow after an early maximum ice extent in late August. Rapid ice retreat occurred in November in the Ross Sea when surface pressure was at a record high level, with the Southern Annular Mode at its most negative for that month since 1968

A model of melt pond evolution on sea ice

A one-dimensional, thermodynamic, and radiative model of a melt pond on sea ice is presented that explicitly treats the melt pond as an extra phase. A two-stream radiation model, which allows albedo to be determined from bulk optical properties, and a parameterization of the summertime evolution of optical properties, is used. Heat transport within the sea ice is described using an equation describing heat transport in a mushy layer of a binary alloy (salt water). The model is tested by comparison of numerical simulations with SHEBA data and previous modeling. The presence of melt ponds on the sea ice surface is demonstrated to have a significant effect on the heat and mass balance. Sensitivity tests indicate that the maximum melt pond depth is highly sensitive to optical parameters and drainage. INDEX TERMS: 4207 Oceanography: General: Arctic and Antarctic oceanography; 4255 Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling; 4299 Oceanography: General: General or miscellaneous; KEYWORDS: sea ice, melt pond, albedo, Arctic Ocean, radiation model, thermodynami

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

Despite the continued increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in this century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus of global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method to unravel mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing the observed history of sea surface temperature over the deep tropical Pacific in a climate model, in addition to radiative forcing. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (a period including the current hiatus and an accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern and prolonged drought in southern North America. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La Niña-like decadal cooling. While similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase