Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area

In this paper, we aim at assessing Markov-switching and threshold models in their ability to identify turning points of economic cycles. By using vintage data that are updated on a monthly basis, we compare their ability to detect ex-post the occurrence of turning points of the classical business cycle, we evaluate the stability over time of the signal emitted by the models and assess their ability to detect in real-time recession signals. In this respect, we have built an historical vintage database for the Euro area going back to 1970 for two monthly macroeconomic variables of major importance for short-term economic outlook, namely the Industrial Production Index and the Unemployment Rate.Business cycle, Euro zone, Markov switching model, SETAR model, unemployment, industrial production.

Enhancing human cognition with cocoa flavonoids

Enhancing cognitive abilities has become a fascinating scientific challenge, recently driven by the interest in preventing age-related cognitive decline and sustaining normal cogni-tive performance in response to cognitively demanding environments. In recent years, cocoa and cocoa-derived products, as a rich source of flavonoids, mainly the flavanols sub-class, have been clearly shown to exert cardiovascular benefits. More recently, neuromodulation and neuroprotective actions have been also suggested. Here, we dis-cuss human studies specifically aimed at investigating the effects of acute and chronic administration of cocoa flavanols on different cognitive domains, such as executive func-tions, attention and memory. Through a variety of direct and indirect biological actions, in part still speculative, cocoa and cocoa-derived food have been suggested to possess the potential to counteract cognitive decline and sustain cognitive abilities, particularly among patients at risk. Although still at a preliminary stage, research investigating the relations between cocoa and cognition shows dose-dependent improvements in general cognition, attention, processing speed, and working memory. Moreover, cocoa flavanols administration could also enhance normal cognitive functioning and exert a protective role on cognitive performance and cardiovascular function specifically impaired by sleep loss, in healthy subjects. Together, these findings converge at pointing to cocoa as a new interesting nutraceutical tool to protect human cognition and counteract different types of cognitive decline, thus encouraging further investigations. Future research should include complex experimental designs combining neuroimaging techniques with physiological and behavioral measures to better elucidate cocoa neuromodulatory properties and directly compare immediate versus long-lasting cognitive effects

EEG oscillations during sleep and dream recall. State- or trait-like individual differences?

Dreaming represents a peculiar form of cognitive activity during sleep. On the basis of the well-known relationship between sleep and memory, there has been a growing interest in the predictive role of human brain activity during sleep on dream recall. Neuroimaging studies indicate that rapid eye movement (REM) sleep is characterized by limbic activation and prefrontal cortex deactivation. This pattern could explain the presence of emotional contents in dream reports. Furthermore, the morphoanatomical measures of amygdala and hippocampus predict some features of dream contents (bizarreness, vividness, and emotional load). More relevant for a general view of dreaming mechanisms, empirical data from neuropsychological and electroencephalographic (EEG) studies support the hypothesis that there is a sort of continuity between the neurophysiological mechanisms of encoding and retrieval of episodic memories across sleep and wakefulness. A notable overlap between the electrophysiological mechanisms underlying emotional memory formation and some peculiar EEG features of REM sleep has been suggested. In particular, theta (5–8 Hz) EEG oscillations on frontal regions in the pre-awakening sleep are predictive of dream recall, which parallels the predictive relation during wakefulness between theta activity and successful retrieval of episodic memory. Although some observations support an interpretation more in terms of an intraindividual than interindividual mechanism, the existing empirical evidence still precludes from definitely disentangling if this relation is explained by state- or trait-like differences

Stimulated Raman Scattering in Micro- and Nanophotonics

Micro- and nanophotonics explore behavior of light on the micro-/nanoscale and the interaction of micro-/nanoobjects with light. The driving force for their development is the aim to go beyond the limit of photonics. Because of the diffraction limit, photonics components are not able to confine light to the microscale or nanoscale dimension; therefore, one of the key challenges for micro- and nanophotonics is a reduction in the size of integrated optical devices, while maintaining a high level of performance. As far as light amplifiers and laser sources based on stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) are concerned, important accomplishments have been achieved in the fields of fiber optics amplification and integrated photonics devices. In this chapter, the most interesting investigations in the field of stimulated Raman scattering in micro- and nanophotonics are reviewed. These findings provide promising perspectives for integrated micro-/nano-Raman lasers

State- or trait-like individual differences in dream recall. Preliminary findings from a within-subjects study of multiple nap REM sleep awakenings

We examined the question whether the role of EEG oscillations in predicting presence/absence of dream recall (DR) is explained by "state-" or "trait-like" factors. Six healthy subjects were awakened from REM sleep in a within-subjects design with multiple naps, until a recall and a non-recall condition were obtained. Naps were scheduled in the early afternoon and were separated by 1 week. Topographical EEG data of the 5-min of REM sleep preceding each awakening were analyzed by power spectral analysis [Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)] and by a method to detect oscillatory activity [Better OSCillations (BOSC)]. Both analyses show that REC is associated to higher frontal theta activity (5-7 Hz) and theta oscillations (6.06 Hz) compared to NREC condition, but only the second comparison reached significance. Our pilot study provides support to the notion that sleep and wakefulness share similar EEG correlates of encoding in episodic memories, and supports the "state-like hypothesis": DR may depend on the physiological state related to the sleep stage from which the subject is awakened rather than on a stable individual EEG pattern

The spatiotemporal pattern of the human electroencephalogram at sleep onset after a period of prolonged wakefulness

During the sleep onset (SO) process, the human electroencephalogram (EEG) is characterized by an orchestrated pattern of spatiotemporal changes. Sleep deprivation (SD) strongly affects both wake and sleep EEG, but a description of the topographical EEG power spectra and oscillatory activity during the wake-sleep transition after a period of prolonged wakefulness is still missing. The increased homeostatic sleep pressure should induce an earlier onset of sleep-related EEG oscillations. The aim of the present study was to assess the spatiotemporal EEG pattern at SO following SD. A dataset of a previous study was analyzed. We assessed the spatiotemporal EEG changes (19 cortical derivations) during the SO (5 min before vs. 5 min after the first epoch of Stage 2) of a recovery night after 40 h of SD in 39 healthy subjects, analyzing the EEG power spectra (fast Fourier transform) and the oscillatory activity [better oscillation (BOSC) detection method]. The spatiotemporal pattern of the EEG power spectra mostly confirmed the changes previously observed during the wake-sleep transition at baseline. The comparison between baseline and recovery showed a wide increase of the post- vs. pre-SO ratio during the recovery night in the frequency bins 10 Hz. We found a predominant alpha oscillatory rhythm in the pre-SO period, while after SO the theta oscillatory activity was prevalent. The oscillatory peaks showed a generalized increase in all frequency bands from delta to sigma with different predominance, while beta activity increased only in the fronto-central midline derivations. Overall, the analysis of the EEG power replicated the topographical pattern observed during a baseline night of sleep but with a stronger intensity of the SO-induced changes in the frequencies 10 Hz, and the detection of the rhythmic activity showed the rise of several oscillations at SO after SD that was not observed during the wake-sleep transition at baseline (e.g., alpha and frontal theta in correspondence of their frequency peaks). Beyond confirming the local nature of the EEG pattern at SO, our results show that SD has an impact on the spatiotemporal modulation of cortical activity during the falling-asleep process, inducing the earlier emergence of sleep-related EEG oscillations

Complexity in action: Untangling latent relationships between land quality, economic structures and socio-spatial patterns in Italy

Land quality, a key economic capital supporting local development, is affected by biophysical and anthropogenic factors. Taken as a relevant attribute of economic systems, land quality has shaped the territorial organization of any given region influencing localization of agriculture, industry and settlements. In regions with long-established human-landscape interactions, such as the Mediterranean basin, land quality has determined social disparities and polarization in the use of land, reflecting the action of geographical gradients based on elevation and population density. The present study investigates latent relationships within a large set of indicators profiling local communities and land quality on a fine-grained resolution scale in Italy with the aim to assess the potential impact of land quality on the regional socioeconomic structure. The importance of land quality gradients in the socioeconomic configuration of urban and rural regions was verified analyzing the distribution of 149 socioeconomic and environmental indicators organized in 5 themes and 17 research dimensions. Agriculture, income, education and labour market variables discriminate areas with high land quality from areas with low land quality. While differential land quality in peri-urban areas may reflect conflicts between competing actors, moderate (or low) quality of land in rural districts is associated with depopulation, land abandonment, subsidence agriculture, unemployment and low educational levels. We conclude that the socioeconomic profile of local communities has been influenced by land quality in a different way along urban-rural gradients. Policies integrating environmental and socioeconomic measures are required to consider land quality as a pivotal target for sustainable development. Regional planning will benefit from an in-depth understanding of place-specific relationships between local communities and the environment

Ethical issues of monitoring sensor networks for energy efficiency in smart buildings: A case study

Abstract The development of Internet of Things (IoT) based sensors has become crucial for analyzing and optimizing the energy-performance of buildings. However, researchers and professionals should be prepared to deal with the social and thus ethical issues arising from the use of such technologies. Based on a real case-study, we present a detailed analysis of the networks of stakeholders and the consequent ethical issues related to the implementation of energy and IEQ sensors network in an Italian university campus. Alternative scenarios for eliminating or reducing the criticalities related to security and privacy issues are proposed