Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models.

Business surveys are an important element in the analysis of the short-term economic situation because of the timeliness and nature of the information they convey. Especially, surveys are often involved in econometric models in order to provide an early assessment of the current state of the economy, which is of great interest for policy-makers. In this paper, we focus on non-seasonally adjusted business surveys relative to the Euro area released by the European Commission. We introduce an innovative way for modelling those series taking the persistence of the seasonal roots into account through seasonal-cyclical long memory models. We empirically prove that such models produce more accurate forecasts than classical seasonal linear models.Euro area ; business surveys ; seasonal ; long memory.

Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play.

In this paper we focus on cycles and trends of some macroeconomic and housing market variables representative of the French economy. In a first part, we empirically show that cycles in the housing sector, measured by housing prices, housing starts, building permits, sales or residential investment, are strongly correlated to GDP cycles with a lead lying between of one and four quarters, suggesting thus that a monitoring of housing fluctuations could bring useful information for macroeconomic forecasting. Interestingly, this result is robust to the various considered approaches. Moreover, it seems that the housing sector long-term trend possesses its own dynamics, quite different from the global French economic activity. Thus, in a second part, we review various structural factors that could drive housing market developments in France in the future.Economic cycles , Housing market , France.

Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial.

Recent macroeconomic evolutions during the years 2008 and 2009 have pointed out the impact of financial markets on economic activity. In this paper, we propose to evaluate the ability of a set of financial variables to forecast recessions in the euro area by using a non-linear binary response model associated with information combination. Especially, we focus on a time-varying probit model whose parameters evolve according to a Markov chain. For various forecast horizons, we provide a readable and leading signal of recession by combining information according to two combining schemes over the sample 1970-2006. First we average recession probabilities and second we linearly combine variables through a dynamic factor model in order to estimate an innovative factor-augmented probit model. Out-of-sample results over the period 2007-2008 show that financial variables would have been helpful in predicting a recession signal as September 2007, that is around six months before the effective start of the 2008-2009 recession in the euro area.Macroeconomic forecasting, Business cycles, Turning points, Financial markets, Non-linear time series, Combining forecasts.

Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy.

In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in the euro area, namely the peaks and troughs of the growth rate which delimitate the slowdown and acceleration phases of the economy. Our aim is twofold: First, we put forward a reference turning point chronology of this cycle on a monthly basis, based on gross domestic product and industrial production index. We consider both euro area aggregate level and country specific cycles for the six main countries of the zone. Second, we come up with a new turning point indicator, based on business surveys carefully watched by central banks and short-term analysts, in order to follow in real-time the fluctuations of the acceleration cycle. Classification-JEL : C22, C52, E32.Acceleration cycle, Euro area, Dating chronology, Turning point indicator, Business surveys.

Central Extension of Extended Supergravities in Diverse Dimensions

We generalize central-charge relations and differential identities of N=2 Special Geometry to N extended supergravity in any dimension 4 \leq D <10, and p-extended objects. We study the extremization of the ADM mass per unit of p-volume of BPS extended objects. Runaway solutions for a ``dilaton'' degree of freedom leading to a vanishing result are interpreted as BPS extremal states having vanishing Bekenstein-Hawking Entropy.Comment: 13 pages, LaTeX, no figures. This is the last version which will appear in International Journal of Modern Physics

Consistent reduction of N=2 -> N=1 four dimensional supergravity coupled to matter

We analyze the constraints which follow both on the geometry and on the gauge sector for a consistent supergravity reduction of a general matter-coupled N=2 supergravity theory in four dimensions. These constraints can be derived in an elegant way by looking at the fermionic sector of the theory.Comment: LaTeX, 16 page

Minimal Higgs Branch for the Breaking of Half of the Supersymmetries in N=2 Supergravity

It is shown that the minimal Higgs sector of a generic N=2 supergravity theory with unbroken N=1 supersymmetry must contain a Higgs hypermultiplet and a vector multiplet. When the multiplets parametrize the quaternionic manifold SO(4,1)/SO(4), and the special Kahler manifold SU(1,1)/U(1), respectively, a vanishing vacuum energy with a sliding massive spin 3/2 multiplet is obtained. Potential applications to N=2 low energy effective actions of superstrings are briefly discussed.Comment: 7 pages, plain Late

U-Duality and Central Charges in Various Dimensions Revisited

A geometric formulation which describes extended supergravities in any dimension in presence of electric and magnetic sources is presented. In this framework the underlying duality symmetries of the theories are manifest. Particular emphasis is given to the construction of central and matter charges and to the symplectic structure of all D=4, N-extended theories. The latter may be traced back to the existence, for N>2, of a flat symplectic bundle which is the N>2 generalization of N=2 Special Geometry.Comment: Misprints corrected and some relations added in six dimensional non-chiral theorie

Flat Symplectic Bundles of N-Extended Supergravities, Central Charges and Black-Hole Entropy

In these lectures we give a geometrical formulation of N-extended supergravities which generalizes N=2 special geometry of N=2 theories. In all these theories duality symmetries are related to the notion of "flat symplectic bundles" and central charges may be defined as "sections" over these bundles. Attractor points giving rise to "fixed scalars" of the horizon geometry and Bekenstein-Hawking entropy formula for extremal black-holes are discussed in some details.Comment: Based on lectures given by S. Ferrara at the 5th Winter School on Mathematical Physics held at the Asia Pacific Center for Theoretical Physics, Seul (Korea), February 199

Generalized dimensional reduction of supergravity with eight supercharges

We describe some recent investigation about the structure of generic D=4,5 theories obtained by generalized dimensional reduction of D=5,6 theories with eight supercharges. We relate the Scherk-Schwarz reduction to a special class of N=2 no-scale gauged supergravities.Comment: Contribution to the proceedings of ``NathFest'' at PASCOS conference, Northeastern University, Boston, Ma, August 200