Política Monetaria Óptima en un Modelo con Intermediación Financiera

Se analiza cuál es la política monetaria óptima bajo una regla de gasto público no habitual en la literatura: el gasto representa un porcentaje constante en la producción. En este caso, dado que el ritmo de crecimiento de la ofeta monetaria y el coeficiente legal de caja influyen sobre el nivel de producción, el nivel de gasto dependerá del valor que tomen dichos instrumentos. Se muestra que la validez de la regla Friedman depende del valor del ratio consumo público/output. Asimismo, cuando es óptimo utilizar el coeficiente legal de caja, éste resulta ser un instrumento equivalente al crecimiento monetario.Impuesto inflacionario óptimo, Coeficiente legal de caja

Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a

In this paper we examine the power of the interest rate spread and of other financial variables as predictors of economic recessions in Spain. The domestic term spread is found to have little information about future real activity. However, term spreads in big economies to which Spain is related, specifically Germany and the US, are found to have significant predicting power but at different time horizons. Both these findings are in line with the facts that the monetary policy of Spain has not been independent and that it has been conditioned by that of other big economies, most notably Germany.

Bárbara Mujica, A New Anthology of Early Modern Spanish Theater. Play and Playtext

Review of Bárbara Mujica, A New Anthology of Early Modern Spanish Theater. Play and Playtext, Yale University Press, New Heaven y Londres, 2015, 697 pp. ISBN: 9780300109566.Reseña de Bárbara Mujica, A New Anthology of Early Modern Spanish Theater. Play and Playtext, Yale University Press, New Heaven y Londres, 2015, 697 pp. ISBN: 9780300109566.

Tax Reforms in an Endogenous Growth Model with Pollution

This paper discusses the effects of a green tax reform in an AK growth model without abatement activities and with a negative environmental externality in utility function. There is also a non-optimal level of public spending. The results depend on the financing source of public spending. When there is not public debt, a revenue-neutral green tax reform has not any effect on pollution, growth and welfare. On the contrary, when short-run deficits are financed by debt issuing, a variety of green tax reforms increase welfare. Nevertheless, in this framework, non-green tax reforms are also welfare improving.Environmental externalities, Economic growth, Pollution taxes, Laffer Curve.

Environmental fiscal policies might be ineffective to control pollution

In a one sector growth model with pollution in the utility function, the competitive equilibrium can be indeterminate for plausible values of the intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption and under constant returns to scale. The tax rate on pollution does not enter the condition characterizing indeterminacy. This means that the government is not able to control emissions in the economy by using environmental policies. Non-separability between private consumption and pollution in the utility function is crucial for this result.Indeterminacy, Environmental taxes, Pollution

La gestión de los comunes en México : hacia un modelo de análisis de los ejidos

En este artículo se presentan algunos resultados y cuestionamientos que surgieron a través de la investigación "Las instituciones locales de acción colectiva en la gestión de los comunes en México: el Ejido tras las reformas agrarias de 1992" realizado en el marco del Máster en Investigación etnográfica, teoría antropológica y relaciones interculturales de la Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona (UAB) 2010- 2011. Como objetivo principal de esta investigación se analizaron las consecuencias de las reformas agrarias emprendidas desde 1992 en las instituciones locales de acción colectiva de los ejidos. El ejido es la figura jurídica más representativa de la propiedad colectiva en México. Por otra parte, nos centramos en el programa PROCEDE (Programa de Certificación de Derechos Ejidales y Titulación de Solares Urbanos) como la principal herramienta de la Ley Agraria de 1992 y la reforma del artículo 27 Constitucional. Asimismo, en este artículo se aporta la propuesta metodológica para el análisis de casos (ejidos) en el proceso de estas reformas legislativas.This article presents some results and questions that emerged through the research "Local institutions for collective action in managing common in Mexico: the Ejido after the land reform of 1992" made for the Master in Ethnographic Research, Anthropological Theory and Intercultural Relations at the Autonomous University of Barcelona(UAB) 2010 - 2011. As the main goal of this research I analyzed the impact of land reforms undertaken since 1992 in local institutions for collective action of the ejidos. The ejido is the main legal form of common property in Mexico. Moreover, we focus on the PROCEDE program (Program of Certification of Ejido Rights and Titling of Urban Patios) as the main tool of the Agrarian Law of 1992 and the reform of Article 27 of the Constitution. Also, this article provides a methodological proposal for analyzing ejidos case studies in the context of these legislative reforms

Double Dividend in an Endogenous Growth Model with Pollution and Abatement

This paper discusses wether by implementing an environmental tax reform, a government may achieve a double dividend. We consider the simplest endogenous growth model (AK model) and include a negative environmental externality in the utility function. Pollution flow can be reduced by means of private abatenment activities. There is a predetermined non-optimal level of public spending financed by environmental taxes and pre-existing taxes on income and consumption. The major contribution of the paper is to show that, under this simple framework, a double dividend may arise if tax reform consists of substituing environmental tax for income tax, in such a way that the government budget constraint holds in a present value sense.Environmental tax reform, Double dividend, Abatement activities.

Orientación profesional del docente a partir de la Investigación Acción. Caso: Construcción de un Proyecto de Formación en Valores

El trabajo que se presenta es un avance de dos de las tres fases que conforman la presente investigación. En este estudio se aprecian los lineamientos teóricos que sustentan el proyecto de investigación y se valora la utilización de la investigación acción como metodología para la formación continua del profesorado, muestra el desarrollo que se llevó a cabo en el colegio, así como, las ventajas y obstáculos que se presentaron a lo largo de su puesta en práctica. En la metodología se contempla la aplicación de la investigación acción como una herramienta de formación del profesorado del Colegio Montessori Tepuente en Cuernavaca Morelos, México, al desarrollar una propuesta educativa en valores para la comunidad escolar. Los resultados reflejan el avance de los instrumentos trabajados con maestros, padres de familia, alumnos y directivos del plantel. La aportación central de esta investigación muestra una versión a nivel descriptivo de la orientación y desarrollo logrado con los maestros a partir de la investigación acción participativa en la elaboración de un programa en valores para todos los ámbitos del colegio. En el desarrollo de la investigación se está aplicando la tercera fase de dicho programa como prueba piloto en el ciclo escolar 2007-2008. Con la investigación se espera dar soporte formativo y académico a la comunidad educativa (directivos, maestros, padres y niños del colegio en particular) y a futuro, considerar este trabajo como un modelo para que otras escuelas afines se beneficien con el programa de valores en el colegio

Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogenous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments

We propose strategies to estimate and make inference on key features of heterogeneous effects in randomized experiments. These key features include best linear predictors of the effects using machine learning proxies, average effects sorted by impact groups, and average characteristics of most and least impacted units. The approach is valid in high dimensional settings, where the effects are proxied by machine learning methods. We post-process these proxies into the estimates of the key features. Our approach is generic, it can be used in conjunction with penalized methods, deep and shallow neural networks, canonical and new random forests, boosted trees, and ensemble methods. It does not rely on strong assumptions. In particular, we don't require conditions for consistency of the machine learning methods. Estimation and inference relies on repeated data splitting to avoid overfitting and achieve validity. For inference, we take medians of p-values and medians of confidence intervals, resulting from many different data splits, and then adjust their nominal level to guarantee uniform validity. This variational inference method is shown to be uniformly valid and quantifies the uncertainty coming from both parameter estimation and data splitting. We illustrate the use of the approach with two randomized experiments in development on the effects of microcredit and nudges to stimulate immunization demand.Comment: 53 pages, 6 figures, 15 table

Generic machine learning inference on heterogenous treatment effects in randomized experiments

We propose strategies to estimate and make inference on key features of heterogeneous effects in randomized experiments. These key features include best linear predictors of the effects using machine learning proxies, average effects sorted by impact groups, and average characteristics of most and least impacted units. The approach is valid in high dimensional settings, where the effects are proxied by machine learning methods. We post-process these proxies into the estimates of the key features. Our approach is generic, it can be used in conjunction with penalized methods, deep and shallow neural networks, canonical and new random forests, boosted trees, and ensemble methods. Our approach is agnostic and does not make unrealistic or hard-to-check assumptions; we don’t require conditions for consistency of the ML methods. Estimation and inference relies on repeated data splitting to avoid overfitting and achieve validity. For inference, we take medians of p-values and medians of confidence intervals, resulting from many different data splits, and then adjust their nominal level to guarantee uniform validity. This variational inference method is shown to be uniformly valid and quantifies the uncertainty coming from both parameter estimation and data splitting. The inference method could be of substantial independent interest in many machine learning applications. An empirical application to the impact of micro-credit on economic development illustrates the use of the approach in randomized experiments. An additional application to the impact of the gender discrimination on wages illustrates the potential use of the approach in observational studies, where machine learning methods can be used to condition flexibly on very high-dimensional controls.https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.04802First author draf