Does inmigration have an impact on economic development and unemployment?. Empirical evidence from Finland(1981-2001)

This study aims at investigating the nature of the causal relationship between immigration and two macroeconomic indicators, GDP per capita and unemployment using Granger causality tests based on Finnish data during the period between 1981-2001. Results indicate that the null hypotheses of immigration does not granger cause GDP per capita is rejected in 2-year lag, at the 5% level. Results show no evidence of reverse causality. On the other hand, the null hypotheses of immigration does not granger cause unemployment is rejected in 2-year lag at the 5% level. Again, results show no evidence of reverse causation.Granger causality, economic development, immigration

Brazilian Real Crisis Revisited: A Linear Probability Model to Identify Leading Indicators

This article aims at identifying the indicators of the Brazilian real crisis through building a probit model incorporating 20 monthly macroeconomic, political, and financial sector indicators from 1980:1 – 1999:1. Results indicate that the significant variables are inflation (1-month lag), real exchange rate (1-month lag), import growth (1-month lag), US interest rates (2-month lag), public debt/GDP (2-month lag), and current account/GDP (3-month lag). Evidence further indicates that the signs of the variables are in line with our expectations, with the exception of US interest rates.Mexican peso crisis, financial crises, probit model, Brazil

East Asian Financial Crisis Revisited: An Econometric Analysis, 1981-2001

This article seeks to find out which macroeconomic variables played a role in the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 using a linear probability model built for Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, and Philippines. Results indicate that foreign direct investment, money stock, growth of exports, current account balance, and real interest rates seem to have played a role in the crisis in most countries, whereas the significance of domestic credit, inflation, and short-term debt relative to reserves appears to be rather weak as explanatory factors for the occurrence of the crisis.financial crises; linear probability models; East Asian crisis

Forecasting Inflation in Developing Economies: The Case of Nigeria, 1986-1998

In this article, we have sought to establish whether monetary aggregates have useful information for forecasting inflation, other than that provided by inflation itself. We have approached the problem in two ways. First, we conducted forecasting experiments, using Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPEs). We then evaluated whether each monetary variable improved the forecasts of a simple AR (1) model of inflation. From the study, we found that the MAPEs for all the variables were less than that of the benchmark AR (1) model. The forecasting experiments showed that, over the whole sample period, most of the variables examined served as important information variables for price movements. We found that the Treasury bill rate, domestic debt and M2 provide the most important information about price movements. Treasury bill rate provided the best information, since it has the lowest MAPE. Conversely, the least important variables were the deposit rate, dollar exchange rate and M1. M2 provides more information about inflation than M1 in the sample period. We also estimated an inflation equation and determined alternately whether M2 enter the equation significantly. We found that M2 is not significant. Exchange rate at level, and contemporaneous value of the domestic debt, are significant in the model. The results obtained are robust across the two methods used and we concluded that although the monetary variables contained some information about inflation, exchange rate and domestic debt may be more useful in predicting inflation in Nigeria. A number of policy implications emerge from the study.Forecasting inflation, Error Correction Model, Mean Absolute Percentage Errors

Focused Ion Beam Nano-structuring for Applications in Photonics

To date, nano- and micro-structuring has commonly been implemented by a combination of specifically optimized processes of electron-beam lithography and reactive ion etching, thus limiting the range of materials that can be structured to only a few. In this talk we will introduce focused ion beam (FIB) milling as an emerging technology that enables fast, reliable and well-controlled nanometer-size feature definition. Since the method involves physical removal of material by a beam of ions, the technique can be adapted and optimized almost for any material system. We will introduce the technique and discuss the basic application areas. In particular, we have investigated the impact of parameters such as ion beam current, dwell time, scanning strategy, and dielectric charging. We will discuss strategies to optimize the nano-structuring processes that are strongly dependent on the geometry of the desired structure. Finally, we will report our recent results on utilization and optimization of the focused ion beam technique for fabrication of nano-structures in integrated photonic devices on several material platforms such as Si, Al2O3, Y2O3, Sc2O3, and KY(WO4)2

Focused ion beam milling strategy for sub-micrometre holes in silicon

Focused ion beam (FIB) milling can be used as a tool to fabricate structures with sub-micrometer details. The slab material can be silicon, for example, which can then be used as a mould for nano-imprint lithography, or in silicon on insulator (SOI) layer configuration suitable for photonic applications. In the latter, additional effort has to be taken to prevent high FIB induced losses, due to ion implantation and material crystal damage. Perfectly vertical sidewalls are, in principle, required for photonic crystal applications to guarantee low-loss propagation; sidewall angles of 5 degrees can already induce a 8 dB/mm propagation loss. We report on optimization of the sidewall angle (FIB) fabricated submicron diameter holes. Our best case results show that sidewall angles as small as 1.5 degree are possible in Si membranes and 5 degree for (bulk) Si and SOI by applying larger doses and using a spiral scan method

Faust

Taha Toros Arşivi, Dosya No: 192-Tiyatro ve Sinema Dokümanları. Not: Gazetenin “Tiyatro” köşesinde yayımlanmıştır.İstanbul Kalkınma Ajansı (TR10/14/YEN/0033) İstanbul Development Agency (TR10/14/YEN/0033

Focused-ion-beam processing for photonics

Although focused ion beam (FIB) processing is a well-developed technology for many applications in electronics and physics, it has found limited application to photonics. Due to its very high spatial resolution in the order of 10 nm, and its ability to mill almost any material, it seems to have a good potential for fabricating or modifying nanophotonic structures such as photonic crystals. The two main issues are FIB-induced optical loss, e.g., due to implantation of gallium ions, and the definition of vertical sidewalls, which is affected by redeposition effects. The severity of the loss problem was found to depend on the base material, silicon being rather sensitive to this effect. The optical loss can be significantly reduced by annealing the processed samples. Changing the scanning strategy for the ion beam can both reduce the impact of gallium implantation and the redeposition effect

XVI. Asırda Hukuk

[No Abstract Available

Ekonometrik modellerle enflasyon tahmini: Pakistan üzerine ampirik bir uygulama

This article aims at modeling and forecasting inflation in Pakistan. For this purpose a number of econometric approaches are implemented and their results are compared. In ARIMA models, adding additional lags for p and/or q necessarily reduced the sum of squares of the estimated residuals. When a model is estimated using lagged variables, some observations are lost. Results further indicate that the VAR models do not perform better than the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) models and, the two factor model with ARIMA (2, 1, 2) slightly performs better than the ARIMA (2, 1, 2). Although the study focuses on the problem of macroeconomic forecasting, the empirical results have more general implications for small scale macroeconometric models.Bu makale Pakistan’daki enflasyonu modellemeyi ve tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bunun için bir takım ekonometrik yaklaşımlar uygulanmış ve sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. ARIMA modellerinde p ve/veya q için fazladan gecikme eklenmesi, hesaplanan hata terimlerinin karelerinin toplamını her zaman azaltmadığı görülmüştür. Gecikmeli değerlerle bir model oluşturulduğunda ise bazı gözlemlerin kaybedildiği ortaya çıkmıştır. Sonuçlar ayrıca şunu göstermiştir ki VAR modelleri ARIMA (2,1,2) modellerinden daha iyi performans sergilememekte ve iki faktörlü ARIMA (2,1,2) modeli ARIMA (2,1,2) modelinden az da olsa daha iyi sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışma makroekonomik tahmin sorunu üzerine odaklanmasına rağmen elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar küçük ölçekli makro-ekonometrik modeller için daha genel implikasyonlar taşımaktadır