Classification of tolerable/intolerable mucosal toxicity of head-and-neck radiotherapy schedules with a biomathematical model of cell dynamics

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to present a biomathematical model based on the dynamics of cell populations to predict the tolerability/intolerability of mucosal toxicity in head-and-neck radiotherapy. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Our model is based on the dynamics of proliferative and functional cell populations in irradiated mucosa, and incorporates the three As: Accelerated proliferation, loss of Asymmetric proliferation, and Abortive divisions. The model consists of a set of delay differential equations, and tolerability is based on the depletion of functional cells during treatment. We calculate the sensitivity (sen) and specificity (spe) of the model in a dataset of 108 radiotherapy schedules, and compare the results with those obtained with three phenomenological classification models, two based on a biologically effective dose (BED) function describing the tolerability boundary (Fowler and Fenwick) and one based on an equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (EQD2 ) boundary (Strigari). We also perform a machine learning-like cross-validation of all the models, splitting the database in two, one for training and one for validation. RESULTS: When fitting our model to the whole dataset, we obtain predictive values (sen + spe) up to 1.824. The predictive value of our model is very similar to that of the phenomenological models of Fowler (1.785), Fenwick (1.806), and Strigari (1.774). When performing a k = 2 cross-validation, the specificity and sensitivity in the validation dataset decrease for all models, from 1.82 to 1.55-1.63. For Fowler, the worsening is higher, down to 1.49. CONCLUSIONS: Our model has proved useful to predict the tolerability/intolerability of a dataset of 108 schedules. As the model is more mechanistic than other available models, it could prove helpful when designing unconventional dose fractionations, schedules not covered by datasets to which phenomenological models of toxicity have been fitted

A mathematical model of dynamics of cell populations in squamous epithelium after irradiation

Purpose To develop multi-compartment mechanistic models of dynamics of stem and functional cell populations in epithelium after irradiation. Methods and materials: We present two models, with three (3C) and four (4C) compartments respectively. We use delay differential equations, and include accelerated proliferation, loss of division asymmetry, progressive death of abortive stem cells, and turnover of functional cells. The models are used to fit experimental data on the variations of the number of cells in mice mucosa after irradiation with 13 Gy and 20 Gy. Akaike information criteria (AIC) was used to evaluate the performance of each model. Results Both 3C and 4C models provide good fits to experimental data for 13 Gy. Fits for 20 Gy are slightly poorer and may be affected by larger uncertainties and fluctuations of experimental data. Best fits are obtained by imposing constraints on the fitting parameters, so to have values that are within experimental ranges. There is some degeneration in the fits, as different sets of parameters provide similarly good fits. Conclusions The models provide good fits to experimental data. Mechanistic approaches like this can facilitate the development of mucositis response models to nonstandard schedules/treatment combinations not covered by datasets to which phenomenological models have been fitted. Studying the dynamics of cell populations in multifraction treatments, and finding links with induced toxicity, is the next step of this work

Chemoradiotherapy of locally-advanced non-small cell lung cancer: Analysis of radiation dose-response, chemotherapy and survival-limiting toxicity effects indicates a low alpha/beta ratio

Purpose To analyse changes in 2-year overall survival (OS2yr) with radiotherapy (RT) dose, dose-per-fraction, treatment duration and chemotherapy use, in data compiled from prospective trials of RT and chemo-RT (CRT) for locally-advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC). Material and methods OS2yr data was analysed for 6957 patients treated on 68 trial arms (21 RT-only, 27 sequential CRT, 20 concurrent CRT) delivering doses-per-fraction ≤4.0 Gy. An initial model considering dose, dose-per-fraction and RT duration was fitted using maximum-likelihood techniques. Model extensions describing chemotherapy effects and survival-limiting toxicity at high doses were assessed using likelihood-ratio testing, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and cross-validation. Results A model including chemotherapy effects and survival-limiting toxicity described the data significantly better than simpler models (p < 10−14), and had better AIC and cross-validation scores. The fitted α/β ratio for LA-NSCLC was 4.0 Gy (95%CI: 2.8–6.0 Gy), repopulation negated 0.38 (95%CI: 0.31–0.47) Gy EQD2/day beyond day 12 of RT, and concurrent CRT increased the effective tumour EQD2 by 23% (95%CI: 16–31%). For schedules delivered in 2 Gy fractions over 40 days, maximum modelled OS2yr for RT was 52% and 38% for stages IIIA and IIIB NSCLC respectively, rising to 59% and 42% for CRT. These survival rates required 80 and 87 Gy (RT or sequential CRT) and 67 and 73 Gy (concurrent CRT). Modelled OS2yr rates fell at higher doses. Conclusions Fitted dose–response curves indicate that gains of ~10% in OS2yr can be made by escalating RT and sequential CRT beyond 64 Gy, with smaller gains for concurrent CRT. Schedule acceleration achieved via hypofractionation potentially offers an additional 5–10% improvement in OS2yr. Further 10–20% OS2yr gains might be made, according to the model fit, if critical normal structures in which survival-limiting toxicities arise can be identified and selectively spared

Quantitative Analysis of Radiation-Associated Parenchymal Lung Change

We present a novel classification system of the parenchymal features of radiation-induced lung damage (RILD). We developed a deep learning network to automate the delineation of five classes of parenchymal textures. We quantify the volumetric change in classes after radiotherapy in order to allow detailed, quantitative descriptions of the evolution of lung parenchyma up to 24 months after RT, and correlate these with radiotherapy dose and respiratory outcomes. Diagnostic CTs were available pre-RT, and at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months post-RT, for 46 subjects enrolled in a clinical trial of chemoradiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer. All 230 CT scans were segmented using our network. The five parenchymal classes showed distinct temporal patterns. Moderate correlation was seen between change in tissue class volume and clinical and dosimetric parameters, e.g., the Pearson correlation coefficient was ≤0.49 between V30 and change in Class 2, and was 0.39 between change in Class 1 and decline in FVC. The effect of the local dose on tissue class revealed a strong dose-dependent relationship. Respiratory function measured by spirometry and MRC dyspnoea scores after radiotherapy correlated with the measured radiological RILD. We demonstrate the potential of using our approach to analyse and understand the morphological and functional evolution of RILD in greater detail than previously possible

Elected Mayors: Leading Locally?

The directly elected executive mayor was introduced to England a decade ago. Drawing inspiration from European and American experience, the elected mayor appealed to both New Labour and Conservative commentators in offering a solution to perceived problems of local leadership. There was a shared view that governance of local areas was failing and that elected mayors were the answer. The first local referendums were held in 2001. Most have continued to reject the idea of the elected mayor. During 2012, the coalition government initiated 10 further mayoral referendums in England's largest cities but only one, Bristol, opted for an elected mayor. Overall, there is no evidence of widespread public support, yet the prospect of more mayors - with enhanced powers - remains firmly on the policy agenda. Drawing from a decade of research, this paper considers reasons for the persistence of the mayoral experiment, the importance of local factors in the few areas where mayors hold office and the link to current policy debates. Using the authors' analytical leadership grid, this paper links the governmental, governance and allegiance roles of mayors to the problematic nature of local leadership. It then draws tentative conclusions about the strange case of the elected mayor in England

A novel isolator-based system promotes viability of human embryos during laboratory processing

In vitro fertilisation (IVF) and related technologies are arguably the most challenging of all cell culture applications. The starting material is a single cell from which one aims to produce an embryo capable of establishing a pregnancy eventually leading to a live birth. Laboratory processing during IVF treatment requires open manipulations of gametes and embryos, which typically involves exposure to ambient conditions. To reduce the risk of cellular stress, we have developed a totally enclosed system of interlinked isolator-based workstations designed to maintain oocytes and embryos in a physiological environment throughout the IVF process. Comparison of clinical and laboratory data before and after the introduction of the new system revealed that significantly more embryos developed to the blastocyst stage in the enclosed isolator-based system compared with conventional open-fronted laminar flow hoods. Moreover, blastocysts produced in the isolator-based system contained significantly more cells and their development was accelerated. Consistent with this, the introduction of the enclosed system was accompanied by a significant increase in the clinical pregnancy rate and in the proportion of embryos implanting following transfer to the uterus. The data indicate that protection from ambient conditions promotes improved development of human embryos. Importantly, we found that it was entirely feasible to conduct all IVF-related procedures in the isolator-based workstations

Whole tumor kinetics analysis of F-18-fluoromisonidazole dynamic PET scans of non-small cell lung cancer patients, and correlations with perfusion CT blood flow

Abstract Background To determine the relative abilities of compartment models to describe time-courses of 18F-fluoromisonidazole (FMISO) tumor uptake in patients with advanced stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) imaged using dynamic positron emission tomography (dPET), and study correlations between values of the blood flow-related parameter K 1 obtained from fits of the models and an independent blood flow measure obtained from perfusion CT (pCT). NSCLC patients had a 45-min dynamic FMISO PET/CT scan followed by two static PET/CT acquisitions at 2 and 4-h post-injection. Perfusion CT scanning was then performed consisting of a 45-s cine CT. Reversible and irreversible two-, three- and four-tissue compartment models were fitted to 30 time-activity-curves (TACs) obtained for 15 whole tumor structures in 9 patients, each imaged twice. Descriptions of the TACs provided by the models were compared using the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AIC and BIC) and leave-one-out cross-validation. The precision with which fitted model parameters estimated ground-truth uptake kinetics was determined using statistical simulation techniques. Blood flow from pCT was correlated with K 1 from PET kinetic models in addition to FMISO uptake levels. Results An irreversible three-tissue compartment model provided the best description of whole tumor FMISO uptake time-courses according to AIC, BIC, and cross-validation scores totaled across the TACs. The simulation study indicated that this model also provided more precise estimates of FMISO uptake kinetics than other two- and three-tissue models. The K 1 values obtained from fits of the irreversible three-tissue model correlated strongly with independent blood flow measurements obtained from pCT (Pearson r coefficient = 0.81). The correlation from the irreversible three-tissue model (r = 0.81) was stronger than that from than K 1 values obtained from fits of a two-tissue compartment model (r = 0.68), or FMISO uptake levels in static images taken at time-points from tracer injection through to 4 h later (maximum at 2 min, r = 0.70). Conclusions Time-courses of whole tumor FMISO uptake by advanced stage NSCLC are described best by an irreversible three-tissue compartment model. The K 1 values obtained from fits of the irreversible three-tissue model correlated strongly with independent blood flow measurements obtained from perfusion CT (r = 0.81)

Diagnostic value of exome and whole genome sequencing in craniosynostosis

Background Craniosynostosis, the premature fusion of one or more cranial sutures, occurs in ~1 in 2250 births, either in isolation or as part of a syndrome. Mutations in at least 57 genes have been associated with craniosynostosis, but only a minority of these are included in routine laboratory genetic testing. Methods We used exome or whole genome sequencing to seek a genetic cause in a cohort of 40 subjects with craniosynostosis, selected by clinical or molecular geneticists as being high-priority cases, and in whom prior clinically driven genetic testing had been negative. Results We identified likely associated mutations in 15 patients (37.5%), involving 14 different genes. All genes were mutated in single families, except for IL11RA (two families). We classified the other positive diagnoses as follows: commonly mutated craniosynostosis genes with atypical presentation (EFNB1, TWIST1); other core craniosynostosis genes (CDC45, MSX2, ZIC1); genes for which mutations are only rarely associated with craniosynostosis (FBN1, HUWE1, KRAS, STAT3); and known disease genes for which a causal relationship with craniosynostosis is currently unknown (AHDC1, NTRK2). In two further families, likely novel disease genes are currently undergoing functional validation. In 5 of the 15 positive cases, the (previously unanticipated) molecular diagnosis had immediate, actionable consequences for either genetic or medical management (mutations in EFNB1, FBN1, KRAS, NTRK2, STAT3). Conclusions This substantial genetic heterogeneity, and the multiple actionable mutations identified, emphasises the benefits of exome/whole genome sequencing to identify causal mutations in craniosynostosis cases for which routine clinical testing has yielded negative results