Experimental Aerosol Inoculation and Investigation of Potential Lateral Transmission of Mycobacterium bovis in Virginia Opossum (Didelphis virginiana)

An endemic focus of Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) infection in the state of Michigan has contributed to a regional persistence in the animal population. The objective of this study was to determine if Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana) contribute to disease persistence by experimentally assessing intraspecies lateral transmission. One wild caught pregnant female opossum bearing 11 joeys (young opossum) and one age-matched joey were obtained for the study. Four joeys were aerosol inoculated with M. bovis (inoculated), four joeys were noninoculated (exposed), and four joeys plus the dam were controls. Four replicate groups of one inoculated and one exposed joey were housed together for 45 days commencing 7 days after experimental inoculation. At day 84 opossums were sacrificed. All four inoculated opossums had a positive test band via rapid test, culture positive, and gross/histologic lesions consistent with caseogranulomatous pneumonia. The exposed and control groups were unremarkable on gross, histology, rapid test, and culture. In conclusion, M. bovis infection within the inoculated opossums was confirmed by gross pathology, histopathology, bacterial culture, and antibody tests. However, M. bovis was not detected in the control and exposed opossums. There was no appreciable lateral transmission of M. bovis after aerosol inoculation and 45 days of cohabitation between infected and uninfected opossums

Educational aspirations in inner city schools

The research aimed to assess the nature and level of pupils’ educational aspirations and to elucidate the factors that influence these aspirations. A sample of five inner city comprehensive secondary schools were selected by their Local Authority because of poor pupil attendance, below average examination results and low rates of continuing in full-time education after the age of 16. Schools were all ethnically mixed and co-educational. Over 800 pupils aged 12-14 completed a questionnaire assessing pupils’ experience of home, school and their peers. A sub-sample of 48 pupils selected by teachers to reflect ethnicity and ability levels in individual schools also participated in detailed focus group interviews. There were no significant differences in aspirations by gender or year group, but differences between ethnic groups were marked. Black African, Asian Other and Pakistani groups had significantly higher educational aspirations than the White British group, who had the lowest aspirations. The results suggest the high aspirations of Black African, Asian Other and Pakistani pupils are mediated through strong academic self-concept, positive peer support, a commitment to schooling and high educational aspirations in the home. They also suggest that low educational aspirations may have different mediating influences in different ethnic groups. The low aspirations of White British pupils seem to relate most strongly to poor academic self-concept and low educational aspirations in the home, while for Black Caribbean pupils disaffection, negative peers and low commitment to schooling appear more relevant. Interviews with pupils corroborated the above findings and further illuminated the factors students described as important in their educational aspirations. The results are discussed in relation to theories of aspiration which stress its nature as a cultural capacity

A framework for the simulation of structural software evolution

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2008 ACM.As functionality is added to an aging piece of software, its original design and structure will tend to erode. This can lead to high coupling, low cohesion and other undesirable effects associated with spaghetti architectures. The underlying forces that cause such degradation have been the subject of much research. However, progress in this field is slow, as its complexity makes it difficult to isolate the causal flows leading to these effects. This is further complicated by the difficulty of generating enough empirical data, in sufficient quantity, and attributing such data to specific points in the causal chain. This article describes a framework for simulating the structural evolution of software. A complete simulation model is built by incrementally adding modules to the framework, each of which contributes an individual evolutionary effect. These effects are then combined to form a multifaceted simulation that evolves a fictitious code base in a manner approximating real-world behavior. We describe the underlying principles and structures of our framework from a theoretical and user perspective; a validation of a simple set of evolutionary parameters is then provided and three empirical software studies generated from open-source software (OSS) are used to support claims and generated results. The research illustrates how simulation can be used to investigate a complex and under-researched area of the development cycle. It also shows the value of incorporating certain human traits into a simulation—factors that, in real-world system development, can significantly influence evolutionary structures

Rewilding: continuing the debate

University of Cumbria experts Dr Andrew Weatherall, Dr Lisa Fenton and Dr Ian Convery contributed a write up of their panel discussion on rewilding from the recent Timber Fest (three days of music, art and performance held in the heart of the National Forest to celebrate 'the transformative impact of forests'). The article featured online in the August 2019 edition of The Ecologist

Informing the management of pediatric heart transplant waiting lists:complementary use of simulation and analytical modeling

A clinical intervention known as `bridging to transplant', in which a patient is placed on life-sustaining support, can be used to increase the chance of an individual surviving until a donor heart becomes available. However, the impact of this on other patients on the waiting list and the wider implications for the resourcing of cardiac units remains unclear. Initial insights have previously been generated using a birth-death queuing model, but this model did not incorporate realistic donor-recipient assumptions regarding blood type and weight. Here we report on a complementary simulation study that examined how estimates from the analytical model might change if organ matching were better taken into account. Simulation results showed that system metrics changed substantially when recipient donor compatibility was modelled. However, the effects of blood type compatibility were countered by that of weight compatibility and when combined, these have a relatively small net effect on results

SARS-CoV-2 tests, confirmed infections and COVID-19 related hospital admissions in children and young people:birth cohort study

Background There have been no population-based studies of SARS-CoV-2 testing, PCR-confirmed infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions across the full paediatric age range. We examine the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in children and young people (CYP) aged <23 years. Methods We used a birth cohort of all children born in Scotland since 1997, constructed via linkage between vital statistics, hospital records and SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data. We calculated risks of tests and PCR-confirmed infections per 1000 CYP-years between August and December 2020, and COVID-19-related hospital admissions per 100 000 CYP-years between February and December 2020. We used Poisson and Cox proportional hazards regression models to determine risk factors. Results Among the 1 226 855 CYP in the cohort, there were 378 402 tests (a rate of 770.8/1000 CYP-years (95% CI 768.4 to 773.3)), 19 005 PCR-confirmed infections (179.4/1000 CYP-years (176.9 to 182.0)) and 346 admissions (29.4/100 000 CYP-years (26.3 to 32.8)). Infants had the highest COVID-19-related admission rates. The presence of chronic conditions, particularly multiple types of conditions, was strongly associated with COVID-19-related admissions across all ages. Overall, 49% of admitted CYP had at least one chronic condition recorded. Conclusions Infants and CYP with chronic conditions are at highest risk of admission with COVID-19. Half of admitted CYP had chronic conditions. Studies examining COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among children with chronic conditions and whether maternal vaccine during pregnancy prevents COVID-19 admissions in infants are urgently needed