Evaluation of omniweave reinforcement for composite fabrication

Molded composites made from type-2 Morganite and/or boron are suitable for structural skins. Layered-in-depth omniweave construction yields higher in-plane strength characteristics than fiber-pitch angle construction, and strength and moduli data vary with fiber orientation

Selecting futures: The role of conviction, narratives, ambivalence, and constructive doubt

Institutional decisions about the future, that matter, are usually made in a context of considerable uncertainty. Although the intention is success the possibility of failure must inevitably be present, whether recognized or not. The principal purposes of this study are twofold. First, we argue that uncertainty contexts require that decisions to create the future are supported by a particular type of future oriented or foresight narrative which we call a conviction narrative. Its essential function is to combine available knowledge about how to achieve desired outcomes with the feeling that the selected action will achieve the aim. Second, we introduce two states, in which conviction may be achieved, divided, and integrated, to argue that research into how conviction is achieved by individuals or institutions making decisions, can be an extremely promising and practical avenue for foresight studies, throwing light on several issues, particularly the oft-noted reluctance to change course and attachment to single stories of the future. The focus on the reality of uncertainty and the two states in which it can be met, can also enhance the research and practice of narrative foresight, through more systematic theorization of the role of emotion and ambivalence in narrative thought and in the processes through which future-focused narratives generate action under uncertainty

Bayesian belief network model for the safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems

The formalism of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) is being increasingly applied to probabilistic modelling and decision problems in a widening variety of fields. This method provides the advantages of a formal probabilistic model, presented in an easily assimilated visual form, together with the ready availability of efficient computational methods and tools for exploring model consequences. Here we formulate one BBN model of a part of the safety assessment task for computer and software based nuclear systems important to safety. Our model is developed from the perspective of an independent safety assessor who is presented with the task of evaluating evidence from disparate sources: the requirement specification and verification documentation of the system licensee and of the system manufacturer; the previous reputation of the various participants in the design process; knowledge of commercial pressures;information about tools and resources used; and many other sources. Based on these multiple sources of evidence, the independent assessor is ultimately obliged to make a decision as to whether or not the system should be licensed for operation within a particular nuclear plant environment. Our BBN model is a contribution towards a formal model of this decision problem. We restrict attention to a part of this problem: the safety analysis of the Computer System Specification documentation. As with other BBN applications we see this modelling activity as having several potential benefits. It employs a rigorous formalism as a focus for examination, discussion, and criticism of arguments about safety. It obliges the modeller to be very explicit about assumptions concerning probabilistic dependencies, correlations, and causal relationships. It allows sensitivity analyses to be carried out. Ultimately we envisage this BBN, or some later development of it, forming part of a larger model, which might well take the form of a larger BBN model, covering all sources of evidence about pre-operational life-cycle stages. This could provide an integrated model of all aspects of the task of the independent assessor, leading up to the final judgement about system safety in a particular context. We expect to offer some results of this further work later in the DeVa project

Impact of wild-type and genetically modified Pseudomonas fluorescens on soil enzyme activities and microbial population structure in the rhizosphere of pea

The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com. Copyright Blackwell Publishing DOI : 10.1046/j.1365-294x.1998.00367.xThe aim of this work was to determine the impact of wild type along with functionally and non-functionally modified Pseudomonas fluorescens strains in the rhizosphere. The wild type F113 strain carried a gene encoding the production of the antibiotic 2,4 diacetylphloroglucinol (DAPG) useful in plant disease control, and was marked with a lacZY gene cassette. The first modified strain was a functional modification of strain F113 with repressed production of DAPG, creating the DAPG negative strain F113 G22. The second paired comparison was a non-functional modification of wild type (unmarked) strain SBW25, constructed to carry marker genes only, creating strain SBW25 EeZY-6KX. Significant perturbations were found in the indigenous bacterial population structure, with the F113, (DAPG+) strain causing a shift towards slower growing colonies (K strategists) compared with the non-antibiotic producing derivative (F113 G22) and the SBW25 strains. The DAPG+ strain also significantly reduced, in comparison with the other inocula, the total Pseudomonas populations but did not affect the total microbial populations. The survival of F113 and F113 G22 were an order of magnitude lower than the SBW 25 strains. The DAPG+ strain caused a significant decrease in the shoot to root ratio in comparison to the control and other inoculants, indicating plant stress. F113 increased soil alkaline phosphatase, phosphodiesterase and aryl sulphatase activities compared to the other inocula, which themselves reduced the same enzyme activities compared to the control. In contrast to this, the -glucosidase, -galactosidase and N-acetyl glucosaminidase activities decreased with the inoculation of the DAPG+ strain. These results indicate that soil enzymes are sensitive to the impact of GMM inoculation.Peer reviewe

The opportunity prior: a proof-based prior for criminal cases

One of the greatest challenges to the use of probabilistic reasoning in the assessment of criminal evidence is the ‘problem of the prior’, i.e. the difficulty in establishing an acceptable prior probability of guilt. Even strong supporters of a Bayesian approach have often preferred to ignore priors and focus on the likelihood ratio (LR) of the evidence. But to calculate if the probability of guilt, given the evidence reaches the probability required for conviction (the standard of proof), the LR has to be combined with a prior. In this article, we propose a solution to the ‘problem of the prior’: the defendant shall be treated as a member of the set of ‘possible perpetrators’ defined as the people who had the same or better opportunity as the defendant to commit the crime. For this purpose, we introduce the concept of an ‘extended crime scene’. The number of people who had the same or better opportunity as the defendant is the number of people who were just as close or closer to the crime scene, in time and space. We demonstrate how the opportunity prior is incorporated into a generic Bayesian network model that allows us to integrate other evidence about the case

Indymedia and the long story of rebellion against neoliberal capitalism

Indymedia was born of the anti-globalisation movement of the late 1990s and quickly spread to become a social movement in its own right. This article reflects on how prescient the claims of the anti-globalisation movement have proven to be and how 20 years ago Indymedia and the anti-globalisation movement predicted there was trouble ahead and that neoliberalism was a central part of the problem. It notes how a history of struggle and protest emanating from the days of Indymedia has developed over time building a counter-politics that is becoming ever wiser about the multiple intersectional harms of capitalism and ever more sophisticated in its political response. The challenge is what comes next

Reconstructing Cardiac Electrical Excitations from Optical Mapping Recordings

The reconstruction of electrical excitation patterns through the unobserved depth of the tissue is essential to realizing the potential of computational models in cardiac medicine. We have utilized experimental optical-mapping recordings of cardiac electrical excitation on the epicardial and endocardial surfaces of a canine ventricle as observations directing a local ensemble transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation scheme. We demonstrate that the inclusion of explicit information about the stimulation protocol can marginally improve the confidence of the ensemble reconstruction and the reliability of the assimilation over time. Likewise, we consider the efficacy of stochastic modeling additions to the assimilation scheme in the context of experimentally derived observation sets. Approximation error is addressed at both the observation and modeling stages, through the uncertainty of observations and the specification of the model used in the assimilation ensemble. We find that perturbative modifications to the observations have marginal to deleterious effects on the accuracy and robustness of the state reconstruction. Further, we find that incorporating additional information from the observations into the model itself (in the case of stimulus and stochastic currents) has a marginal improvement on the reconstruction accuracy over a fully autonomous model, while complicating the model itself and thus introducing potential for new types of model error. That the inclusion of explicit modeling information has negligible to negative effects on the reconstruction implies the need for new avenues for optimization of data assimilation schemes applied to cardiac electrical excitation.Comment: main text: 18 pages, 10 figures; supplement: 5 pages, 9 figures, 2 movie

Cardiac cell modelling: Observations from the heart of the cardiac physiome project

In this manuscript we review the state of cardiac cell modelling in the context of international initiatives such as the IUPS Physiome and Virtual Physiological Human Projects, which aim to integrate computational models across scales and physics. In particular we focus on the relationship between experimental data and model parameterisation across a range of model types and cellular physiological systems. Finally, in the context of parameter identification and model reuse within the Cardiac Physiome, we suggest some future priority areas for this field