Decarbonizing development: three steps to a zero-carbon future

This report lays out three steps for a smooth transition to a zero-carbon future and provides data, examples and policy advice to help countries makes the shift. Overview Getting to zero net emissions and stabilizing climate change starts with planning for the long-term future and not stopping at short-term goals. It means getting prices right as part of a broad policy package that can trigger changes in both investments and behaviors, and it requires smoothing the transition for those most affected. A new World Bank report walks policymakers through those three steps with data, examples and policy advice to help put countries on a path to decarbonizing their development in a smooth and orderly way. The solutions exist, and they are affordable – if governments take action today, the report says

Portraits of Women

In this collection, Julie Fay uses narrative poetry to paint meaningful scenes lifted from history and personal experience to create a work that examines the lives of American women. The first section, entitled “Burlington Homestead,” describes an American family’s struggle to make a place for themselves in nineteenth-century southern Iowa, faced with the challenges of both the physical world and the inner world of personal desire. Part Two, “Sarah’s Story,” is about a young woman’s need to leave her marriage in order to discover herself and her art. Both sections analyze a woman’s role in time and place. Marilyn Hacker states in the introduction that this collection is “...all the more remarkable considering the range of places [the] book traverses: grasshoppers overwhelming a field of squash blossoms, wild azaleas blooming along a mountain streambed, the lunar landscape of a limestone col. Strongest of all, perhaps, is her more intimate range: the evocation of those gestures that define and preserve our humanity...

Formation of hollow carbon nanoshells from thiol stabilised silver nanoparticles via heat treatment

Uniform, less 10 nm sized, hollow carbon nano-shells (HCNS) have been prepared via a single-step, thermal treatment of alkanethiol stabilised Ag nanoparticles (TS-AgNP). Direct evidence for the formation of spherical HCNS from TS-AgNP is provided by in situ MEMS heating on Si3N4 supports within a TEM, and ex situ thermal processing of TS-AgNP on carbon nanotube supports. A mechanism is proposed for the thermally driven, templated formation of HCNS from the TS-AgNP stabilising layer, with Ag catalysing the graphitisation of carbon in advance of thermally induced AgNP template removal. This facile processing route provides for excellent size control of the HCNS product via appropriate AgNP template selection. However, a rapid rate of heating was found to be crucial for the formation of well-defined HCNS, whilst a slow heating rate gave a much more disrupted product, comprising predominantly lacy carbon with decreased levels of graphitic ordering, reflecting a competition between the thermal transformation of the TS-layer and the rate of removal of the AgNP template

Supporting survivors of sexual violence:protocol for a mixed methods, co-research study of the role, funding and commissioning of specialist services provided by the voluntary sector in England

Abstract Introduction The voluntary sector provides a range of specialist services to survivors of sexual violence, many of which have evolved from grass roots organisations responding to unmet local needs. However, the evidence base is poor in terms of what services are provided to which groups of survivors, how voluntary sector specialist (VSS) services are organised and delivered and how they are commissioned. This will be the first national study on the role of the voluntary sector in supporting survivors in England. Methods and analysis This study uses an explanatory sequential naturalistic mixed-methods design with two stages. For stage 1, two national surveys of providers’ and commissioners’ views on designing and delivering VSS services will facilitate detailed mapping of service provision and commissioning in order to create a taxonomy of VSS services. Variations in the national picture will then be explored in stage 2 through four in-depth, qualitative case studies using the critical incident technique to explain the observed variations and understand the key contextual factors which influence service provision. Drawing on theory about the distinctive service contribution of the voluntary sector, survivors will be involved as co-researchers and will play a central role in data collection and interpretation. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval has been granted by the University of Birmingham research ethics committee for stage 1 of the project. In line with the sequential and co-produced study design, further applications for ethical review will be made in due course. Dissemination activities will include case study and end-of-project workshops; good practice guides; a policy briefing; project report; bitesize findings; webinars; academic articles and conference presentations. The project will generate evidence about what survivors want from and value about services and new understanding about how VSS services should be commissioned and provided to support survivors to thrive in the long term

Integrating physical and economic data into experimental water accounts for the United States: Lessons and opportunities

Water management increasingly involves tradeoffs, making its accounting highly relevant in our interconnected world. Physical and economic data about water in many nations are becoming more widely integrated through application of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounts for Water (SEEA-Water), which enables the tracking of linkages between water and the economy. We present the first national and subnational SEEA-Water accounts for the United States. We compile accounts for water: (1) physical supply and use, (2) productivity, (3) quality, and (4) emissions for roughly the years 2000 to 2015. Total U.S. water use declined by 22% from 2000 to 2015, falling in 44 states though groundwater use increased in 21 states. Water-use reductions, combined with economic growth, led to increases in water productivity for the overall national economy (65%), mining (99%), and agriculture (68%). Surface-water quality trends were most evident at regional levels, and differed by waterquality constituent and region. This work provides (1) a baseline of recent historical water resource trends and their value in the U.S., and (2) a roadmap for the completion of future accounts for water, a critical ecosystem service. Our work also aids in the interpretation of ecosystem accounts in the context of long-term water resources trends.This work was conducted as a part of the “Accounting for U.S. Ecosystem Services at National and Subnational Scales” working group supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) under funding received from the National Science Foundation (grant DBI-1052875) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis (grant GX16EW00ECSV00). We thank members of the working group for constructive discussions of the scope and content of U.S. water accounts and reviews of this manuscript. We thank the following individuals for assistance with data access and interpretation: Cheryl Dieter, Carey Johnston, John Lovelace, Molly Maupin, Gary Rowe, and Lori Sprague. Support for Bagstad and Ancona’s time was provided by the USGS Land Change Science Program

Risk assessments and structured care interventions for prevention of foot ulceration in diabetes:development and validation of a prognostic model

Background: Diabetes-related foot ulcers give rise to considerable morbidity, generate a high monetary cost for health and social care services and precede the majority of diabetes-related lower extremity amputations. There are many clinical prediction rules in existence to assess risk of foot ulceration but few have been subject to validation. Objectives: Our objectives were to produce an evidence-based clinical pathway for risk assessment and management of the foot in people with diabetes mellitus to estimate cost-effective monitoring intervals and to perform cost-effectiveness analyses and a value-of-information analysis. Design: We developed and validated a prognostic model using predictive modelling, calibration and discrimination techniques. An overview of systematic reviews already completed was followed by a review of randomised controlled trials of interventions to prevent foot ulceration in diabetes mellitus. A review of the health economic literature was followed by the construction of an economic model, an analysis of the transitional probability of moving from one foot risk state to another, an assessment of cost-effectiveness and a value-of-information analysis. Interventions: The effects of simple and complex interventions and different monitoring intervals for the clinical prediction rules were evaluated. Main outcome measure: The main outcome was the incidence of foot ulceration. We compared the new clinical prediction rules in conjunction with the most effective preventative interventions at different monitoring intervals with a ‘treat-all’ strategy. Data sources: Data from an electronic health record for 26,154 people with diabetes mellitus in one Scottish health board were used to estimate the monitoring interval. The Prediction Of Diabetic foot UlcerationS (PODUS) data set was used to develop and validate the clinical prediction rule. Review methods: We searched for eligible randomised controlled trials of interventions using search strategies created for Ovid® (Wolters Kluwer, Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands), MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials in progress were identified via the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Registry and systematic reviews were identified via PROSPERO. Databases were searched from inception to February 2019. Results: The clinical prediction rule was found to accurately assess the risk of foot ulceration. Digital infrared thermometry, complex interventions and therapeutic footwear with offloading devices were found to be effective in preventing foot ulcers. The risk of developing a foot ulcer did not change over time for most people. We found that interventions to prevent foot ulceration may be cost-effective but there is uncertainty about this. Digital infrared thermometry and therapeutic footwear with offloading devices may be cost-effective when used to treat all people with diabetes mellitus regardless of their ulcer risk. Limitations: The threats to the validity of the results in some randomised controlled trials in the review and the large number of missing data in the electronic health record mean that there is uncertainty in our estimates. Conclusions: There is evidence that interventions to prevent foot ulceration are effective but it is not clear who would benefit most from receiving the interventions. The ulceration risk does not change over an 8-year period for most people with diabetes mellitus. A change in the monitoring interval from annually to every 2 years for those at low risk would be acceptable. Future work recommendations: Improving the completeness of electronic health records and sharing data would help improve our knowledge about the most clinically effective and cost-effective approaches to prevent foot ulceration in diabetes mellitus. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016052324. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 62. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

The use of phylogeny to interpret cross-cultural patterns in plant use and guide medicinal plant discovery: an example from Pterocarpus (Leguminosae)

The study of traditional knowledge of medicinal plants has led to discoveries that have helped combat diseases and improve healthcare. However, the development of quantitative measures that can assist our quest for new medicinal plants has not greatly advanced in recent years. Phylogenetic tools have entered many scientific fields in the last two decades to provide explanatory power, but have been overlooked in ethnomedicinal studies. Several studies show that medicinal properties are not randomly distributed in plant phylogenies, suggesting that phylogeny shapes ethnobotanical use. Nevertheless, empirical studies that explicitly combine ethnobotanical and phylogenetic information are scarce.In this study, we borrowed tools from community ecology phylogenetics to quantify significance of phylogenetic signal in medicinal properties in plants and identify nodes on phylogenies with high bioscreening potential. To do this, we produced an ethnomedicinal review from extensive literature research and a multi-locus phylogenetic hypothesis for the pantropical genus Pterocarpus (Leguminosae: Papilionoideae). We demonstrate that species used to treat a certain conditions, such as malaria, are significantly phylogenetically clumped and we highlight nodes in the phylogeny that are significantly overabundant in species used to treat certain conditions. These cross-cultural patterns in ethnomedicinal usage in Pterocarpus are interpreted in the light of phylogenetic relationships.This study provides techniques that enable the application of phylogenies in bioscreening, but also sheds light on the processes that shape cross-cultural ethnomedicinal patterns. This community phylogenetic approach demonstrates that similar ethnobotanical uses can arise in parallel in different areas where related plants are available. With a vast amount of ethnomedicinal and phylogenetic information available, we predict that this field, after further refinement of the techniques, will expand into similar research areas, such as pest management or the search for bioactive plant-based compounds

A generalist–specialist trade-off between switchgrass cytotypes impacts climate adaptation and geographic range

Polyploidy results from whole-genome duplication and is a unique form of heritable variation with pronounced evolutionary implications. Different ploidy levels, or cytotypes, can exist within a single species, and such systems provide an opportunity to assess how ploidy variation alters phenotypic novelty, adaptability, and fitness, which can, in turn, drive the development of unique ecological niches that promote the coexistence of multiple cytotypes. Switchgrass, Panicum virgatum, is a widespread, perennial C4 grass in North America with multiple naturally occurring cytotypes, primarily tetraploids (4×) and octoploids (8×). Using a combination of genomic, quantitative genetic, landscape, and niche modeling approaches, we detect divergent levels of genetic admixture, evidence of niche differentiation, and differential environmental sensitivity between switchgrass cytotypes. Taken together, these findings support a generalist (8×)–specialist (4×) trade-off. Our results indicate that the 8× represent a unique combination of genetic variation that has allowed the expansion of switchgrass’ ecological niche and thus putatively represents a valuable breeding resource